Saudi Arabia Plans 'Thatcherite Revolution'

Sky News via Yahoo ^ | 1/7/2016

[EBH]

Saudi Arabia is mulling the sale of shares in Aramco, believed to be the world's most valuable company, as part of plans to repair its finances and open up its economy.

The announcement was made by the country's deputy crown prince as Saudi's secretive, state-owned oil firm grapples with the effects of oil prices nearing 12-year lows .

Mohammed bin Salman told The Economist: "That is something that is being reviewed, and we believe a decision will be made over the next few months."

The Saudi economy has taken a battering from the oil price decline and the finance ministry announced last month it was to review its tax and spending regime after the country posted a record budget deficit of $98bn (£66bn) in its last financial year.

It (Other OTC: ITGL - news) was its second annual shortfall and it predicted a third for 2016 of $87bn (£58bn).

The ministry said then it could apply VAT to non-essential goods, raise charges on public services and raise the cost of heavily-subsidised power and fuel.

Mohammed bin Salman, who heads the kingdom's Supreme Council that oversees Aramco, went much further.

When asked if the country was planning a "Thatcherite revolution", he replied "Most certainly".

He told the magazine he was keen to privatise healthcare and education services and saw opportunities in other areas, such as defence and mining.

The prince, who is also defence minister in the Saudi government, believed non-oil revenues could reach $100bn over the next five years.

On the prospect of opening up Saudi Aramco, which officials told The Economist was worth "trillions" of dollars, he said: "Personally I’m enthusiastic about this step.

[EBH]

Beware what the other hand is doing. China and Saudi Arabia....both having serious financial troubles.

[Buckeye McFrog]

The only difference is when Maggie Thatcher told British yobs to get off their butts and go back to work they did not respond by cutting her head off.

[PAR35]

Only a fool would buy it. They took it from its rightful owners once, nothing to stop them from doing it again.

[nickcarraway]

This means they are going to make abortion legal?

[BeauBo]

The Saudi government selling the public shares in Aramco (as this article reports is being considered) might be a savvy move.

They need cash now for sure, but they could go a few years, just selling off sovereign wealth fund investments. Beyond that, they are taking real steps to reduce spending, which will give them more time.

So selling shares in Aramco could be a longer term strategic move. If they forecast that oil prices will be low structurally for the long haul (due to frakking and alternative energy developments), they might maximize their value by selling now, before the market catches up and devalues oil reserves.

I would guess that the Saudi government/family would keep a controlling interest Aramco, even if it does goes public.

Alternatively, such a sale might signal something other than an investment play. Current powerbrokers might just want to cash out while they personally can, or it might signal a different policy approach by the Salman regime, with wider implications.

[noiseman]

I think it’s hilarious that the Saudis started this price decline in an attempt to thwart the growing competition from American fracking, only to lose control of the price and see their action boomerang back and smack them right between the eyes. Now they appear to be in full panic mode. The downside, of course, to this little comedy is that if their people rebel against them we could see something like ISIS in control of the Saudi oil fields.

[smaug6]

Exactly what I thought. Just like GM stock.

[SunkenCiv]

Watch the woodwork -- the Thatcher bashers are about to come out of it. Thanks EBH.

[notdownwidems]

The downside, of course, to this little comedy is that if their people rebel against them we could see something like ISIS in control of the Saudi oil fields.

Inasmuch as it would encourage American energy independence, I don't necessarily see this as a downside. Let Europe and Japan fight to protect their own energy supplies, eff 'em.

[EBH]

ISIS in control of the oil fields, interesting in that Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest financiers for ISIS.

[dfwgator]

Better to have an enemy that acts like an enemy, than an enemy that acts like a friend.

[RayChuang88]

However, the capital raised by making Saudi Aramco public could make it possible for Saudi Arabia to open up a LOT more potential oilfields in the Arabian Peninsula, even if they have to use fracking and fluid/gas injection to get the oil. Despite what you think about Islam, we forget Muslims historically can have a lot of savvy business sense, given the history of the Arabian Peninsula as the crossroads of goods trade from well before the time of Christ (the prophet Mohammed was a traveling merchant based in Mecca early in his life).

[MUDDOG]

I recently read a book review in the WSJ of a new Thatcher biography.

Thatcher didn’t like it when Reagan invaded Grenada without telling her. Queen Elizabeth was queen of Grenada under the Commonwealth.

[hattend]

Does that mean Saudi women will be able to ride in the front seat of the car and...gasp...drive?

[BlackVeil]

Well stated, noiseman. The Saudis also seem to be losing control of the war in Syria and in Yemen - and those would be expensive mistakes.