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Feedback Doctor 2004 Presidential Prediction State Bush Kerry Nader Bush% Kerr% Na % Bu Ke Alabama 1,065,707 668,559 5,694 61.25 38.43 0.33 9 Alaska 154,549 86,021 2,430 63.60 35.40 1.00 3 Arizona 813,334 700,166 NA 53.74 46.26 0.00 10 Arkansas 493,423 545,852 5,525 53.74 46.26 0.53 6 California 4,990,484 6,223,016 NA 44.50 55.50 0.00 55 Colorado 945,813 845.322 22,565 52.38 46.38 1.24 9 Connecticut 655,055 773,813 23,932 45.09 53.26 1.65 7 Delaware 156,937 171,324 7,139 46.79 51.08 2.13 3 Florida 3,272,250 3,074,254 75,596 50.95 47.87 1.18 27 Georgia 1,587,990 1,127,810 NA 58.47 41.53 0.00 15 Hawaii 188,478 190,422 NA...

Hi Everyone! Election day is finally here! Praise be to Allah, the all merciful. There are really only six States in play, IA, WI, and OH for Bush, and NH, MN, PA, for Kerry. Frankly, the rest of you, just don't matter. I know the talking heads keep talking about Hawaii, but that is just to keep you up late, to see more laxative commercials. Heck, the chances are better that the Red Sox will win the World Series, than Hawaii will vote Republican. Perhaps, you never should say, never. The bottom line is that Kerry must have Ohio and...

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EV AL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA...

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EV AL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA 1,606,182...

In 2000, the Wisconsin-based costume company began tracking presidential candidate mask sales by five different mask manufacturers and asked 12 different chains to research their sales history. What they found was remarkable: Since 1980, the candidate whose likeness has outsold his opponent's likeness has won the White House. So you can throw out the confusing, contradictory polling numbers being released almost hourly now by Time, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/USA Today/Gallup and Pooh Bear/Piglet/Christopher Robin. The numbers that truly matter, the numbers that unfailingly point to who will emerge victorious in the presidential election, are the number of Bush and...

Also, Bush will win Maine's 2nd district, getting one vote for a theoretical total of 297-241. If the rumors about an unfaithful West Virginia elector are true, it could drop this to 296-241.

Hey folks, this is my first vanity in 6 years of Freeping. So, sorry in advance for the vanity. :) Anyway, I've been watching the Dow Jones Average since Labor Day. Why? Because the old theory is that if, on Election Day, the Dow is higher than it was on Labor Day, the incumbant will win. And vice-versa. This theory has been approx. 90% accurate for the past 100 years, or something like that. Anyway, the Dow was around 10,250 on Labor Day, and it's at 10,000 today, with one trading day left before Tuesday. I've been worrying about this...

The famour Fair model has been updated for the new GDP numbers. Strong economic growth caused Yale economist, Ray Fair, to boost his prediction of President Bush's share of the vote. The prediction of his economic model: Bush wins with 58% of the vote.

William KristolBush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D) House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I) Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota. Stephen HayesKerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I) House: 230 (R), 205 (D) Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers...

Although their current map looks good, take a look at their final prediction for the election. Under the map you can check their assumptions, but yikes!

Friends - as someone who likes to dig deeper into the US elections (I mean the technicalities, my interest always was great, and I am European) I would like to ask the following: if one looks into the poll predictions concerning the election of next week, one at first is confronted with a bewildering array of names and predictions. The latter may vary quite a lot, in that one poll gives Dubya an advantage of 4 procent points (raise a toast!), and then another seems to predict something of a draw, a photo finish. Then there is the meta-poll math,...

(Click the article link to see a topographic image of the San Andreas Fault region of central California.) On September 28, 2004 a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck Central California near the town of Parkfield. The quake caused no injuries and minimal property damage, but was of great interest to American geologists. In 1984 the United States Geological Survey predicted that a Magnitude 6 earthquake would occur on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield within five years of 1988. The prediction was based on a sequence of 6 similar earthquakes that occured every 22 years (on average) from 1857 to 1966....

The most scientifically credible earthquake prediction for California in years has just a few days left for fulfillment - or bust. The forecast, made by an international team of scientists including a UCLA seismologist, is that a quake of magnitude 6.4 or larger will strike within a 12,000-square-mile region of Southern California before Monday. A state panel of earthquake experts who reviewed the prediction says the approach is legitimate but too untested to warrant emergency action. Another difficulty with taking action, they said, is that the region in question is too big. Reaching from the Mojave Desert in San Bernardino...

Electoral Votes: Bush 328, Kerry 210 Popular Vote: Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.1%

THE BOUNCE HITS THE ELECTORAL VOTE  Bush 47.5% – 246 EV | Kerry 49.8% – 292 EV EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 216| Kerry 250| Toss 72 July 20, 2004 Florida finally slips over into the Kerry column after weeks of hanging out with Bush despite the popular vote swing toward Kerry. But, as predicted last week, the Edwards bounce has arrived in the electoral college, where Kerry now leads 292-246. You'll also notice a change in the above graphic. Despite the convenience (and now cliché) of referring to "Red States" and "Blue States", I've...

KERRY TAKES THE LEAD  Bush 46.86% - 254 | Kerry 49.24% - 284 May 25, 2004 Despite a slightly smaller margin of 2.38% in favor of Kerry, compared to last week’s 2.38%, Bush falls behind in the electoral vote after losing Pennsylvania. Two recent polls show Kerry with leads of 5 and 6 in Pennsylvania, returning that state to blue. Pennsylvania now Leans Kerry, with a lead of 1.17% of the two-party vote. This is consistent with historical Pennsylvania trends. Pennsylvania has voted more heavily Democrat than the nation as a whole every year since 1960. Sure, Ronald Reagan...

Stable Race, Bush Still Leads  Bush 49.00 | Kerry 47.59May 11, 2004Despite dire warnings from the pundits about Bush's electability after the USA Today Gallup Poll showed Bush's approval ratings relatively unchanged since February, the race remains tight, with Bush maintaining a slight lead over Kerry in this week's Composite Poll.  Bush leads the Composite Popular Vote 49.0% to 49.6%, and he leads the Electoral Vote Prediction 290-248.   When eliminating the Battleground states (which are in the "Lean" category where the current projected margin for any candidate is less than 6%), Bush has the advantage in states with 182 electoral...

TO PREDICT the outcome of US elections is to invite the fate of the American Civil War general, John Sedgwick. He met his end at the Battle of Spotsylvania, 140 years ago yesterday, while urging the troops under his command to ignore Confederate snipers. “Don’t duck!”, he insisted. “They couldn't hit an elephant at this dis . . . ” and promptly dropped dead from a bullet. Newspapers of late have contained thoroughly confusing messages about the present presidential struggle. For ten solid days, the Bush White House has been placed under a media siege by the Iraqi prisoner abuse...

Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November. In a column yesterday, the researcher laid out four reasons he sees that point to the defeat of President Bush. "I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls," Zogby writes. "Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election." Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he...

PRE-AD BLITZ  Bush 49.46 | Kerry 48.36May 4, 2004As John Kerry readies his $25 million ad buy targeted at 19 states, the race remains close.  The only difference from 2000 is that New Mexico slips into Bush’s column.The polls still show continued weakness for President Bush.  He doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls.  That’s not good for a President that is well known by the electorate.  At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined, and now he gets his chance to define himself – a $25 million chance.  Without allocating the undecided vote, the composite...