FederalReview Composite Poll and E.V. Prediction, April 27, 2004, Bush 49.46 | Kerry 48.46.

Federal Review ^ | May 4, 2004 | Federal Review

[Darth Reagan]

PRE-AD BLITZ  Bush 49.46 | Kerry 48.36
May 4, 2004

As John Kerry readies his $25 million ad buy targeted at 19 states, the race remains close.  The only difference from 2000 is that New Mexico slips into Bush’s column.

The polls still show continued weakness for President Bush.  He doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls.  That’s not good for a President that is well known by the electorate.  At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined, and now he gets his chance to define himself – a $25 million chance. 

Without allocating the undecided vote, the composite result is Bush 45 | Kerry 43.  That leaves 12% undecided or voting for Nader.  We’re about 180 days from the election and there’s still a lot to happen.

Many complaints are arising on the left that Kerry can’t win.  It’s early, and Kerry has plenty of time to continue to try to define himself.   Will his ad blitz work, or will he find out that everyone knows the John Kerry, war hero, depicted in the ads?  But I bet he’ll get a bounce.  Then, he can expect another bounce when he picks his Vice President and when he has his convention in late July.  The problem for Kerry is that the Republican convention should give Bush a bounce, and this year that bounce will come late, as the convention is in the first week of September.  A bounce that late could put Bush in the lead for good, regardless of the good will Kerry collects in late July.  Another potential problem for Kerry, is that the Olympics follow his convention.  Will people maintain their focus on the election, or will those who bounce to Kerry in July slide back to undecided during the Olympics, ripe for returning to Bush during his 4 day ad early September?

Watch this space for the trends.

Another Methodology change.  We now include the Rasmussen poll, primarily to combat any perceived pro-Bush bias in this Composite Poll, as the Rasmussen poll has been more likely to show a Kerry lead than other polls.  You’ve read my complaints about Rasmussen’s methodology, so I don’t give the poll as much weight as others, and, to eliminate the wild swings in Rasmussen’s results that are expected when polling 500 by recorded phone call each day, we average his daily results over a week.  This shows a remarkably stable race.  The Composite Poll history has been revised to reflect the use of the Rasmussen Poll beginning in the April 6 poll.  This has helped Kerry’s historic numbers, even having a lead in the national Composite Poll on April 6 and April 13.   Because of the burden, I have not rerun the numbers for the electoral vote.  We’re far enough out that the real value of this poll to show trends should still be evident as our Bounce events come along.

This Week’s Polls
CBS / New York Times
Rasmussen Research
Iowa Electronic Market
Last Week’s Poll

Last Week’s Polls
FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics
Investor’s Business Daily /Christian Science Monitor
Iowa Electronic Market

 

 

Since last week’s polls:

 

Bush State Gains
None

 

Kerry State Gains
Oregon

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

 

 

 

Composite History

Date	Bush	Kerry
9-Mar	49.0	49.1
16-Mar	50.3	48.4
23-Mar	49.2	48.6
30-Mar	49.8	47.5
6-Apr	49.0	49.3
13-Apr	49.0	49.2
20-Apr	49.83	47.71
27-Apr	50.28	48.14
4-May	49.46	48.36

 

Electoral Vote Prediction History

	With Toss Ups			Without Toss Ups
Date	Bush	Kerry	Toss	Bush	Kerry
9-Mar	133	189	216	247	291
16-Mar	199	86	253	338	200
23-Mar	184	110	244	338	200
30-Mar	194	110	234	335	203
6-Apr	198	182	158	278	260
13-Apr	198	199	141	299	239
20-Apr	243	195	100	328	210
27-Apr	205	178	155	321	217
4-May	192	178	168	283	255

The States
Margin of Lead
 (+Bush | -Kerry)
Battlegrounds in Green

Alabama	15.9%
Alaska	30.1%
Arizona	7.9%
Arkansas	3.6%
California	-10.9%
Colorado	8.6%
Connecticut	-18.4%
Delaware	-12.7%
District of Columbia	-77.2%
Florida	1.7%
Georgia	12.9%
Hawaii	-19.0%
Idaho	40.8%
Illinois	-10.9%
Indiana	15.9%
Iowa	-1.6%
Kansas	21.2%
Kentucky	15.9%
Louisiana	11.4%
Maine	-5.6%
Maryland	-10.5%
Massachusetts	-25.1%
Michigan	-4.8%
Minnesota	-7.3%
Mississippi	18.0%
Missouri	3.5%
Montana	25.0%
Nebraska	29.3%
Nevada	7.6%
New Hampshire	0.6%
New Jersey	-10.1%
New Mexico	0.02%
New York	-20.9%
North Carolina	10.7%
North Dakota	28.6%
Ohio	1.5%
Oklahoma	23.3%
Oregon	-0.6%
Pennsylvania	-0.1%
Rhode Island	-29.8%
South Carolina	16.8%
South Dakota	24.4%
Tennessee	8.9%
Texas	21.9%
Utah	40.9%
Vermont	-10.8%
Virginia	4.9%
Washington	-3.9%
West Virginia	3.7%
Wisconsin	-0.02%
Wyoming	41.4%

[Semper Paratus]

Nader is being treated as a cipher in these polls although he'll probably be on at least 45 state ballots. He should suck about 2 points off Kerry in the final analysis.

[PhiKapMom]

Noticed that too about Nader which makes any polls without him meaningless!

In fact polling this far from the election is pretty meaningless -- cannot believe the people that follow these polls by the day!

[Darth Reagan]

Help. The headline should read May 4, 2004, not April 27, 2004. Can it be changed?

[Darth Reagan]

I use the polling numbers in the analysis that include Nader, when available. More will include him as election day comes closer.

[Aggie Mama]

Shame on the people of NY. 9/11 happened in their backyard and yet they don't get it.

[CougarGA7]

I still want to know where we can find out if Nadar has met the criteria to be on the ballot in any given state. Anyone know if there's a spot on the web that shows what states he's made it onto the ballot in?

[EllaMinnow]

Try here:

http://www.votenader.org/ballot_access/index.php

It also gives you the forms you need to sign to help get him on the ballot in your state.

[DrDeb]

"The polls still show continued weakness for President Bush. He doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls"


Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm . . . Gallup (USAToday/CNN) has had the President above 50% in its last two polls and the most recent SHU poll (released yesterday) has the President at 52%.

It's my opinion that the electorate is currently split 52% Republican/48% Democrat -- as reflected in the composition of the House of Representatives. If all goes well, this split will be reflected in the November election!!

[NOTE: Most of the 'top line' polls OVERWEIGHT Democrats/Democrat-leaning Independents by 3-8 points . . . guess what, this 'overweight' phenomenon is reflected in the head-to-head match-up numbers!]

[CougarGA7]

Thanks.

[jmaroneps37]

Gee thanks guys. Now please tell me again what issues lurch
A) runs on and B) beats W on?
Bush loses Wisconsin? Maybe the 12 points he is up in the latest poll won't hold but for now 12 points is 12 points.
lurch has thrown his best punches and now he is left with only his horse face and his flip flops.

[Darth Reagan]

Within days of that 12 point lead in Wisconsin, another poll showed Kerry up 7. Who knows. You'll notice that my analysis has Kerry up 0.02 in Wisconsin (and Bush of 0.02 in NM).

[NYC Republican]

Poll Bump!

[Darth Reagan]

ping

[DrDeb]

"Within days of that 12 point lead in Wisconsin, another poll showed Kerry up 7. Who knows. You'll notice that my analysis has Kerry up 0.02 in Wisconsin (and Bush of 0.02 in NM)."


Actually, the BADGER POLL IS THE MOST RECENT POLL:

Badger Poll -- 511 voters (4/20-28/04): President Bush +12

St. Norbert/WPR Poll -- 358 voters (4/14-21/04): Kerry +7

[NOTE: One-day Rasmussen polls lack the statistical validity of multiple-day polls!]

[Darth Reagan]

But I'll still err on the side of painting a gloomier picture for Bush. I want him to win and think he will, but I want to be conservative in my methodology! If this analysis shows a signficant Bush advantage, then we can be sure of celebrating on November 2.

[Darth Reagan]

new poll

[Future Useless Eater]

great stats, thanks

[Darth Reagan]

It's a lot of work and a lot of fun. I just hope it accurately shows trends in the race. Thanks for appreciating it.

[Future Useless Eater]

Just one gripe about FederalReview.com ... they added Rasmussen, and its greatly skewing their numbers. the prior three weeks, the numbers seemed to agree with two other sources (shown below) but Rasmusson is WAY overboard in bias, it seems.

And I don't see how FederalReview can justify putting Pennsylvania in the Kerry column, based on all the polls I've seen. I also hope FedRev relies on the same polls week-to-week, it seems they picked up almost a completely different set this week, making its usefulness for trend-watching less valuable. thanks. FLE

---

here's a composite of trends shown graphically [dates shown are Monday dates]...
    with Beltway Boys (Saturday predictions)...
    with Tradesports (Monday predictions)...
    with FederalReview (Tuesday predictions)...

Bush	(BeltwayBoys)	(Tradesports)	(FederalReview)
Kerry	(BeltwayBoys)	(Tradesports)	(FederalReview)
	Saturday	Monday	Tuesday

01.26

02.02

02.09

02.16

02.23

03.01

03.08

03.15

03.22

03.29

04.05

04.12

04.19

04.26

05.03

prisoner story broke 4/28 and Fed.Rev added Rasmussen