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ZOGBY MONDAY: OBAMA 48%, MCCAIN 44%... DEVELOPING...

THE POLL: The Ohio Newspaper Poll, presidential race among likely Ohio voters (20 electoral votes). THE NUMBERS: John McCain 48 percent, Barack Obama 46 percent. OF INTEREST: Three weeks ago, this poll had Republican McCain leading 48-42 percent.

Pennsylvania hasn’t voted Republican for president since 1988. Democrats have increased their registration numbers here by more than a half-million over the past year, and Barack Obama has a double-digit lead in the polls. Yet John McCain's campaign continues to signal that it intends to contest the state and its 21 electoral votes to the end. It is a high-risk, high-return endeavor: Pennsylvania represents a costly gambit, one that siphons resources from must-win states such as Ohio and Florida, but a win here would enable McCain to lose a few other states that George W. Bush carried and still capture...

An theme which has come up in the past week is "Democrat Landslide". The first I recall seeing of this was the Democrat flack strategist David Paul Hume, in the Politico. In his piece, he suggested that if Obama were to sweep Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida, then he would have a landslide. And that would indicate that Obama would take "Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, ...Iowa...[and] Missouri." OK, that's fair. So I propose a counterexample. If McCain were to take Michigan and Pennsylvania, he would have a landslide, which would indicate he would take Washington, Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota,...

Barack Obama is now ahead in every state won by John Kerry four years ago, and New Jersey is no exception. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey finds Obama attracting 50% of the vote while McCain earns just 42%.

Dear friends at Newsweek... Just to clarify... You have McCain winning Republicans, 89 to 7. You have Obama winning Democrats, 91 to 5. (I'm a bit skeptical, but for now, for the sake of argument, I'll accept your assertion that PUMAs are extinct.) You have McCain winning independents by 2 percent, 45 to 43. And this adds up to an 11-percent Obama lead in your latest poll. We are to believe that McCain is losing among women by 9 percent, but losing among men by 14 percent. We are to believe that the Hillary voters are lining up behind Obama,...

When 42,769 Freepers Join Together, Who Can Stand In Our Way? There was a poll question I alerted everyone one here to. As the case usually is, Freepers answered the sound of the charge and made a difference. There is no site on the Web that can brag about this kind of response from it's members. We come together in the hope that we can change that which we do not agree with. As was the case in this Poll on Intelligent Design vs Evolution, when we get together in mass we always make a difference. Imagine, In a just...

In an election for the open seat in the United States House of Representatives from Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District today, one month to Election Day, DFL Party candidate Ashwin Madia and Republican Erik Paulsen battle for every vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Madia and Paulsen finish today inside the survey’s margin of sampling error, effectively even, 46% for Madia, 43% for Paulsen. In an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Paulsen was nominally ahead, inside of the margin of sampling error.

I'm starting this thread to counter act the surrender threads currently out there. I wasn't at today's McCain rally in Minnesota. I only see what the MSM packages for me to see, which I suspect was intended to demoralize. I choose not to be demoralized. And I ask that those of you who are going wobbly to stop it. I will still gladly vote for McCain/Palin.

You know what to do. Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to serve as Vice President of the United States? http://www.pbs.org/cgi-registry/poll/poll.pl

Democrat Mark Udall still leads among Colorado's likely voters, but his Republican rival, Bob Schaffer, is narrowing the gap, according to a Denver Post poll. Udall, who had been up by as many as 10 percentage points in previous polls, is favored by 43 percent of registered voters surveyed, to Schaffer's 38 percent. But with 14 percent of respondents saying they haven't made up their minds less than a month before the election, it's clear the race is much tighter than it appeared to be over the summer, said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.

PUMAs don’t forget to say you are voting for Barack Obama if polled… October 9, 2008 by PUMA Pundit PUMAs, If and when you get polled, remember to let the pollster know that not only do you intend to vote, but that you are strongly committed to voting for: Barack Obama It is extremely important we keep on doing this. Let Obama and his surrogates keep on being lulled into a false sense of security at having a lead in the national polls. So far this strategy seems to be working, polls show Obama to be up… Of course on...

A majority of voters (52%) favor John McCain’s plan for the federal government to buy up distressed mortgages and refinance them so homeowners can stay in their homes, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Thirty-five percent (35%) oppose the plan. Democrats like McCain’s plan more than Republicans, even though Barack Obama opposes it. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Democratic voters think it’s a good idea, compared to 47% of Republicans – and 49% of unaffiliated voters. Seventy percent (70%) of African-American voters favor McCain’s plan, as do 50% of white voters. P.S....I'm not a frequent poster.. so pardon...

unchanged from yesterday, McCain running 1 pt better than the Party ID gap (currently D +6 in Ras). RCP average currently at O +5.7

Some polls say John McCain is falling behind. I will believe these polls when I see headlines screaming : “Catholics, Evangelicals, and Whites abandoning McCain to support Obama” The media is reporting there’s a “ fight among Catholics over which party to support.” They offer wishful thinking, but no proof to support this claim. The last Catholic voter numbers said McCain led 57/36 among this group that will be 26% of voters. Where are the new “bad Catholic” numbers for McCain? Where are the “new” poll numbers of Evangelicals ( 15% of voters) showing shrinking support for McCain and Sarah...

Mike Allen has the goods in his morning Playbook: McCain pushback on Florida polls: "Our polling shows us up 7. My guess is they over sampled blacks and under sampled Cubans. McCain pushback on Q-polls: "These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they're true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2%, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country? These states are bellwethers because they closely mirror national demographics. Given the...

How widespread is the voter registration fraud that ACORN has been responsible for? How much has it artificially boosted Democrat registration numbers this year?There are two factors that have increased Dem registration this year. One is the efforts by ACORN and similar groups. The other is the significant numbers of Republicans who switched to Democrat so that they could vote for Hillary Clinton in the primaries. The first group isn't going to vote for Obama because they don't exist, to a large extent. The second group is going to vote for John McCain. All of the likely (and even registered)...

Barack Obama now leads John McCain 50% to 47% in Florida, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey in the state. This is the second straight October poll to show Obama with a modest advantage in Florida. That’s quite a change from September when five statewide polls found McCain ahead or tied each time. Still, the latest polling shows a tighter race than the seven-point advantage enjoyed by Obama last Sunday.

Full breakdown here.

ELECTORAL VOTE October 9, 2008 KERRY 280 BUSH 248 Does anyone remember the Kerry's landslide that came afterwards ? Oh... wait...

Inside Today's Bulletin Polls: McCain On The Rebound By Joe Murray, The Bulletin 10/09/2008 The mad dash to the White House has become a horserace again with a new poll showing John McCain closing the gap and coming within striking distance of Barack Obama. A Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll, taken before Tuesday night's debate in Nashville, shows Mr. McCain trailing Mr. Obama by a 47 percent to 45 percent margin; well within the poll's 2.8 percent margin of error. Seven percent remain undecided. "This represents a bit of a recovery by McCain, who had been sliding in some polls before...

McCain backers in Wis. say they don't trust polls WAUKESHA, Wis. (AP) - Supporters waiting in line to see John McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin in Waukesha say they don't believe recent polls that show Democrat Barack Obama leading by 10 points in Wisconsin. Alicia Thorson of Waukesha says she thinks the polls are fixed. The mother of 4 says she doesn't trust what she called the "liberal media." Thorson's 3-year-old and 7-year-old daughters were dressed like Palin outside the sports complex where McCain was to hold a noon town hall meeting. Kristi Czaplewski (CHAP-lew-skee) says she doesn't...

election

Freep this poll. Please

Tracking Polls Show Different Pictures of Obama vs. McCain October 08, 2008 04:25 PM ET | Michael Barone | Has anyone else been struck by what seems to be a rising discrepancy between the various tracking polls? Gallup currently shows Obama +11, and Rasmussen shows Obama +6. But the Obama margin is notably less in Reuters/Zogby (Obama +2) and Hotline (Obama +1), with Battleground (Obama +4) in the middle. This doesn't cast doubt on the Obama lead. All of the tracking polls but Hotline have Obama winning between 47 percent and 52 percent of the vote. All but Gallup have...

RUSH: What a sad state journalism must have to be in. We know it is, but it was on display last night, the sad state of journalism. You know it's bad when they have to drag Tom Brokaw out of Jurassic Park to moderate the debate. What happened to Brian Williams? What happened to Charlie Gibson? What happened to Katie Couric? Why go to Jurassic Park? Folks, I am sitting here, all I can do today is laugh. I've been having so much fun getting ready for today's show and I'm going to share it with you, greetings, great to...

I was eating lunch today with the wife on her birthday. The table next to us was a gentleman and a young lady, well dressed, curiously looking at papers spread out over the table. The fellow had a briefcase with a huge McCain\Palin Victory sticker. Wife and I whispered about who they can be. Wife turned around and just had to ask. Well this was a Republican party of Pennsylvania honcho in charge of the Victory campaign for the good guys. We got into an interesting discussion about the debates, polling, etc. This what I heard…. It was very encouraging,...

The race for the 2008 presidency is settling back a bit on Obama's momentum -- at least that is what can be concluded from the four national tracking polls we see today. Obama's 3% lead is much less than the peak he had of about 7-8% just a couple of days ago. This movement back towards McCain is likely just a correction in the race after a period where Obama gained considerably in a short amount of time... But there is still very little evidence to suggest that McCain's supporters are at all excited about this race.

Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta is leading U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) by 8 points a month before Election Day, according to an internal Barletta campaign poll. The two are vying for the 11th Congressional District seat, in what is considered Pennsylvania's most competitive House race. The survey of 397 voters, conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research, closely matches the results of an independent Franklin & Marshall poll last month. In the Barletta poll, the challenger edges the longtime incumbent 47 percent to 39 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The poll also shows Kanjorski, considered by some to be the most...

In an election...

The race has tightened.

unchanged from yesterday, still at 8% deficit RCP average O + 5.8 Other daily trackers: Gallup O 50 - M 42 (yday) Hotline O 47 - M 41 (yday) Battlegroubd O 50 - M 43 (yday) Reuters/Zogby O 48 - M 45 R2000 O 52 - M 41 (warning - Kos' poll, resampling to 76% white gives O 51 - M 43)

NASHVILLE, Tennessee (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow 3-point lead in the U.S. presidential race on Republican John McCain less than a month before the election, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday. Obama leads McCain among likely U.S. voters 48 percent to 45 percent in the national poll, which has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Four percent of voters said they were still undecided. The survey, the first in a series of daily tracking polls that will sample public opinion until the November 4 election, showed Obama with an advantage among the crucial...

While most Americans are watching the Dow and other stock-market figures zig and zag, I have my eyes fixed on numbers that are headed straight up: voter registrations. Across the nation, election clerks and secretaries of state are regularly announcing historic increases in the ranks of registered voters. For a pollster, this is a nightmare. It changes the composition of what we hopefully refer to as the likely voter population. All of a sudden, in many states we have hundreds of thousands of new voters with no prior vote history on the books. Will they vote or not? Which party...

In Slate Magazine, William Saletan says the polls are so stacked against John McCain, there’s no possibility he can win. The race is over. Oh, wait. That was eight years ago, and he was talking about George W. Bush. Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution...

election held

Election

15. If the election for United States Senate were held today, for whom would you vote, Frank Lautenberg, the Democrat or Dick Zimmer, the Republican? Frank Lautenberg 48% Dick Zimmer 41% Undecided 11%

Amid growing concerns about the economy, Ohio Democrats are coming home to Sen. Barack Obama, giving him a 7-point advantage in a new Dispatch Poll as the volatile presidential campaign swings into its final month. The Illinois senator's lead of 49 percent to 42 percent over Republican Sen. John McCain comes at an especially opportune time for Obama because thousands of Ohioans already are casting ballots in the state's first presidential election allowing any registered voter to vote absentee. The new setup takes away some of the heft from the adage "the only poll that counts is the one on...

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has opened up a commanding lead in Minnesota over Republican John McCain, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll. The poll, conducted last week among 1,084 likely voters, found that 55 percent support Obama, while 37 percent back McCain. That's a huge difference from the last Minnesota Poll, conducted in September, which showed the race dead even, with each candidate backed by 45 percent of likely voters. The new poll shows that Obama's surge in the state can be attributed to voters' belief in his ability to deal with the nation's worsening economy, his...

Back to 7 pt deficit. Other daily trackers: Gallup O 50 - M 42 (yday) Hotline O 48 - M 41 (yday) Battleground O 49 - M 46 (yday) R2000 O 52 - M 40 (warning - Kos' poll, resampling to 76% white gives O 50 - M 41).

Below is a polling accuracy report card showing the accuracy of the polling firms were in the 2008 primaries all the way up to North Carolina and Indiana primaries. Rasmussen ranks number 20.

Just received an email from Schumer's committee that states the Dems are this close to achieving a filibuster proof Senate.Their polls have Dems leading in six races currently held by Reps. They are seeking cash to seal the deal and expect to do so. (Semi vanity)

Go to the link and "click" on FL, VA, NC, WV, OH, IN, MO, NV, and CO and then "change each state to a McCain state." I believe that McCain should win FL, VA, WV, NC, OH, IN, MO, and NV. There's still a chance in CO. This map shows WV leaning to McCain. WV isn't even close. McCain will dominate WV. If McCain / Palin can win CO, PA, MN, or possibly even WI. I believe they will win the election. They need to hold VA, FL, OH, IN, and NV as I believe they can. This thing ain't...

Can They Catch Up? Of course. by William Kristol 10/13/2008, Volume 014, Issue 05 The odds are against John McCain and Sarah Palin winning this election. It's not easy to make up a 6-point deficit in the last four weeks. But it can be done. Look at history. The Gore-Lieberman ticket gained about 6 points in the final two weeks of the 2000 campaign. Ford-Dole came back more than 20 points in less than two months in the fall of 1976. Both tickets were from the party holding the White House, and both were running against inexperienced, and arguably risky,...

Does anyone think Governor Sarah Palin is not a force in this year’s presidential race? Here’s something for folks to consider when looking at the political landscape and the polls. The usually ignored VP debate drew a historic audience - jumping into first place for any VP debate and into 2nd place for all Presidential debates: Update: Looking at the per network totals at Drudge I noticed PBS and C-SPAN may not be included in the tally, so this could be the all time record breaker! Updated: PBS ads another 3.5 million viewers, making this debate number one even over...

With one month to go until Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. For each of the past nine days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45% (see trends). The stability of these results suggests that the McCain campaign faces a the very steep challenge in the remaining few weeks of Election 2008.

But the governor's race is an exception: Pat McCrory, the Republican mayor of Charlotte, now has a slight lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCrory attracting 50% of the vote while Perdue earns 46%. This is the first time Rasmussen Reports has polled the governor’s race since mid-August, and it represents quite a reversal. In August, Perdue held a six-point advantage. She is currently serving her second term as lieutenant governor. McCrory has been Charlotte’s mayor since 1995.

The race for Washington’s next Governor is now a tie. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds incumbent Christine Gregoire and challenger Dino Rossi each attracting 48% of the vote. Gregoire is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 47%. Her job performance is rated 43% good or excellent from voters, while 35% say she is doing a poor job. Former State Senator Rossi’s ratings are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable.

In the kitchens of the Associated Press, it's almost as if the wire service asked its chief cook -- er, pollster -- GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media, to do the following: Whip up a tasty, representative poll after the Republican Convention.Three weeks later, make the same dish, but this time adjust the mix of ingredients by radically oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans, thereby creating a false illusion of momentum in the campaign of Barack Obama, and of decline in John McCain's.Hope people don't notice the changes in the recipe. Of course we don't know if the differences between AP-CfK's...