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A unique feature of Freedom's Lighthouse is the "Average of Electoral Vote Projections," which you will see updated daily at the top of the left sidebar (see table below). The table shows the ten sites that are regularly updating their Electoral Vote Projection for the Presidential Race. At the bottom of the table are averages for all the sites. There is an average that includes "tossups" and an average of the sites that do not include "tossups." Right now, Obama leads handily in both averages. Come back and check the table on a regular basis. It will be updated at...

Here is the updated Electoral Vote Projection Scoreboard for today, June 15, 2008: Electoral Vote Projection ScoreboardUpdated: 6/15/08 – 3:40 PM EDT SITE McCAIN OBAMA TOSSUP Real Clear Politics 190 238 110 Real Clear Politics – No Tossups 266 272 -- Electoral-Vote 221 304 13 Election Projection 234 304 -- 270toWin.com 189 235 114 FiveThirtyEight 229.5 308.5 -- The Hedgehog Report 259 279 -- Obama has widened his lead over the last week on most sites, reflecting the bounce he received from Hillary Clinton dropping from the race. But that is deceiving right now. Many of the Battleground States are...

Here is the 2008 Presidential Electoral Projection Map and State Poll Average Chart for Thursday, May 22, 2008. . . .Barack Obama now leads John McCain on the Electoral Vote Map 237-236 as a result of the 50-Day Average of polls from Virginia now showing McCain leading Obama there by only three points, which puts Virginia into the "Tossup" Column. There are now 65 Electoral Votes in the "Tossup" category. . .Don't forget to check out the charts at the bottom of the page for Latest State Polls, 50-Day Average of National Polls, and Latest National Polls. . .

Here is the 2008 Presidential Electoral Projection Map and State Poll Average Chart for Monday, May 19, 2008. . .Ohio has moved back into the "Tossup" category on the Electoral Map, leaving John McCain with a lead over Barack Obama of 249-228 in Electoral Votes, with 61 considered a "Tossup" at this time. . .A new Siena poll out of New York has Obama leading McCain 49%-38%. . .Don't forget to check out the charts at the bottom of the page for Latest State Polls, 50-Day Average of National Polls, and Latest National Polls. . .

Here is the 2008 Electoral Vote Projection Map and 50-Day State Average Poll Chart for Friday, May 16, 2008 . . .Colorado has now moved from the Obama category into the "Tossup" category. That now leaves the Electoral Vote Tally at 249 for McCain, 228 for Obama, and 61 in the "Tossup" category. . .Don't forget to check out the charts at the bottom of the page for Latest State Polls, 50-Day Average of National Polls, and Latest National Polls. Updates will be posted through the day as new polling numbers come out. . . .

Here is the updated 2008 Electoral Vote Projection Map and State Poll Average Chart for Wednesday, May 14, 2008. . . .McCain continues to lead Obama 249-237, with 52 electoral votes rated as "Tossup." . . .Don't forget to check out the charts at the bottom of the page for Latest State Polls, 50-Day Average of National Polls, and Latest National Polls.

Here is the updated 2008 Presidential Electoral Vote Projection Map and Poll Average Chart for Monday, May 12, 2008 . . .McCain continues to lead Obama in the Projected Electoral Vote 249-237, with 52 in the "Tossup" column (see map above). . . .Please note that charts are posted at the bottom of the main page showing the "Latest State Polls," the "50-Day Average of National Polls," and the "Latest National Polls." Those charts will be updated and kept there on an ongoing basis.

Here is the Electoral Vote Projection Map and Poll Average Chart updated for May 11, 2008. . . .Please note that new charts are now posted at the bottom of the main page showing the "Latest State Polls," the "50-Day Average of National Polls," and the "Latest National Polls." Those charts will be updated and kept there on an ongoing basis. Thanks for all your comments yesterday! Be sure and leave your comment at the bottom of this post to share your take on the election at this point. . . .

In today's updated Electoral Projection Map and Chart, both John McCain and Barack Obama have an additional state in their column: * Nevada moved into McCain's column as a good-Obama poll moved off the 50-day average. * Colorado moved into Obama's column because a strong McCain poll moved off the 50-day average.

Check here daily for updates on the latest General Election Projection for the 2008 Presidential Election. Both the map and the "Poll Averages" chart will be updated at least daily, sometimes multiple times a day as new polls become available. The "Poll Averages" are based on a six-week average of polls for each state where available. The projection map is based on a combination of the averages for each state, the state's previous voting history where little poll data is available, and the all important "gut-feeling." Be sure and leave your comments as to how you see the election shaping...

That question aside, Ohio remains the center of attention. The 2006 midterm elections saw it swing forcefully to the Democratic side. The Republican secretary of state, who was regarded as a major player in suppression of Democratic votes in 2004, ran for governor and was trounced. Democrats further elected a senator and a new secretary of state -- who now controls the electoral process. All indicators are that Ohio's 20 electoral votes will go Democratic this November, totally changing the equation: If all other states remain the same as in 2004, the Democrat would win 272 electoral votes and the...

Inland Rep. Darrell Issa is throwing his political clout and significant financial support behind a state ballot initiative to change the way California's electoral votes are cast in presidential elections -- a measure some say could decide the next president. The wealthy congressman, who single-handedly jumpstarted the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis, said Tuesday he has agreed to support the measure both financially and by providing access to his own fundraising network, including his substantial e-mail lists. Issa, R-Vista, declined to say how much money he would give, describing his contribution as fluid. Dave Gilliard, a Republican consultant with...

SACRAMENTO — A Democratic group on Monday filed formal complaints with the Federal Election Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice, accusing Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani of violating campaign laws, including money laundering. The complaints, made by Californians for Fair Election Reform, accuse Giuliani, through his friend Paul Singer, of establishing a Missouri "front" organization to solicit illegal donations to support a ballot measure that would overturn California's winner-take-all system of allocating electoral votes. Such a change would provide the Republican presidential nominee a chance to pick up roughly 20 electoral votes by dividing them up by congressional districts....

Initiative To Change Distirbution Of Calif.'s Electoral Votes Funded By Supporter Of GOP Front-Runner (AP) SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- A top donor to presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani was the source of the one - and only - contribution to a proposed California ballot measure that would have made it much harder for Democrats to win the White House, according to a published report. The campaign to qualify the measure for next year's ballot collapsed Thursday when two of its top consultants quit, complaining they had not been told who gave the money. The donor, hedge fund giant Paul Singer, came out...

San Francisco -- Days after a controversial organization began collecting voter signatures for a ballot measure to change California's winner-take-all primary, a founder of the GOP-backed group says its major players are resigning - and the group will fold - due to lack of funding and support. "The levels of support just weren't there," said Marty Wilson, the Sacramento-based fundraiser, in a telephone interview Thursday. Wilson was among the founding members of Californians for Equal Representation, the group led by Sacramento attorney Thomas Hiltachk that intended to collect roughly 434,000 signatures to qualify the Presidential Election Reform Act for the...

So if this initiative were to get on the ballot and pass, it would mean that even if the state continued to vote for a Democrat for president, as it has for the past four elections, a Republican would still get some electoral votes. Under this method, Bush would have gotten 19 in 2000 and Gore 35. In 2004, Bush would have gotten 22 electoral votes and Kerry 33. Democrats are furious over the prospect of a district by district scheme. They say that unless such a change was made in every state in the union, it would be unfair...

LOS ANGELES - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger gave a chilly reception Thursday to a GOP-backed plan to change the way California awards electoral votes in presidential elections — a proposal critics say could tilt the outcome in favor of Republicans. "In principle, I don't like to change the rules in the middle of the game," the Republican governor told reporters. Schwarzenegger added he wasn't versed in details of the ballot proposal and stressed he wasn't taking a definitive position. But his uneasy response is likely to make it harder for supporters to build momentum and could chill fundraising. The proposed ballot...

Initiative Enters Circulation to Make California’s Presidential Votes Competitive Signatures are now being gathered for an initiative to select California’s Presidential Electors by Congressional districts, rather than having all the state’s electors chosen state-wide. Secretary of State Debra Bowen announced that the proponents of the initiative have completed the legal requirements to begin collecting signatures. Each state has the same number of Presidential Electors as it has members of Congress –Two senators and one for each congressional district. The number of Congressional districts is determined every ten years based on the official federal census. If the measure qualifies for the...

If you haven't been following John Kerry closely, get ready to hear of surprising developments. The vote-defrauded, potential president-in-waiting has just indicated through his lawyer that the validity of George Bush's reelection is no longer a given. On 23 December, 2004 Kerry's lawyer confirmed to MSNBC's 'Countdown' that John Kerry will be seeking (likely on Monday 27 Dec.) to expedite court proceedings in an ongoing recount suit by the Green and Libertarian parties. That might sound like just another "count every vote" exercise by the Kerry campaign, were it not for two important details. Kerry's court filing will conjoin him...

CHARLESTON - A disgrunted West Virginia Republican elector said Tuesday he likely will cast his Electoral College ballot for President Bush after all because he won West Virginia by such a wide margin."The margin of victory was persuasive, no question about it," said South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb, who had repeatedly said he might not vote for Bush because he disagrees with his economic and foreign policies. With 1,025 of 1,965 precencts reporting, Bush had 55 percent of the vote compared to 44 percent for Democrat John Kerry, 1 percent for Independent Ralph Nader and less than 1 percent for...

From electrol vote.com the cocpiracy's start--here it comes "One thing that is very strange is how much the exit polls differed from the final results, especially in Ohio. Remember that Ohio uses Diebold voting machines in many areas. These machines have no paper trail. Early in the campaign, Diebold CEO Walden O'Dell, a GOP fundraiser, promised to deliver Ohio to Bush. He later regretted having said that.

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/11/poll-update.html Probability of Best Path for Minimal Bush EV Victory (NM, FL, WI): 91.4% Probability of Best Path for Minimal Kerry EV Victory (PA, OH, FL): 0.2% Analysis: I cleaned out all the old polls (i.e. those released before 10.27) and, lo and behold, it would seem that Bush now has a lead in PA! His lead in OH has strengthened, and his lead in FL, IA, WI remain strong. I still maintain that (A) PA is the true toss-up in this race; (B) Minnesota will be the dark horse Bush victory. Also, to correct my predicted EV score, it...

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes Alabama 97.3 9 0 Alaska 98.5 3 0 Arizona 89.4 10 0 Arkansas 86.0 6 0 California 4.0 0 55 Colorado 74.5 9 0 Connecticut 3.2 0 7 Delaware 6.2 0 3 District of Columbia 0.7 0 3 Florida 58.3 27 0 Georgia 96.0 15 0 Hawaii 23.0 0 4 Idaho 99.0 4 0 Illinois 4.4 0 21 Indiana 97.5 11 0 Iowa 52.8 7 0 Kansas 97.4 6 0 Kentucky 97.1 8 0 Louisiana 97.5 9 0 Maine 7.5 0 4 Maryland 5.6 0 10 Massachusetts...

With most of the states having made up their mind on the presidential race in February, less than a quarter of them can truly be regarded as still in play. Because of the close proximity of the weekend before Election Day, which are days when many people are engaged in Halloween activities thus disrupting the sample, reliable polling data will not be available until likely voters are surveyed on Monday night, with the results not being made known till early Tuesday morning. With even the best barometers of the American pulse skewed, my predictions on how the race will fall...

After the revelations of today, 10/29/04, where a US Army Major revealed that his unit had destroyed 250 tons of munitions at the Al QaQua facility, and after the latest Osama bin Laden video...I am revising my election prediction upward for Bush. I honestly believe that many more Americans will vote for Bush after Bin Laden spouted the Kerry/DNC/Michael Moore talking points, and after Kerry's knee jerk reation regarding the munitions have been wholly discredited. Here's my original projection from 10/15/2004. BACK TO JEFFHEAD.COM

Stupidity news: One of Kerry's electors in Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown, is a congressman. Unfortunately, the constitution forbids federal office holders from being electors. It is possible that if Kerry wins Ohio, Brown's right to cast an electoral vote will be challenged in court. Whoever picked a constitutionally ineligible elector needs to get his or her mental software ungraded to the latest release.

Although their current map looks good, take a look at their final prediction for the election. Under the map you can check their assumptions, but yikes!

Sen. John Kerry lost his battle to make Missouri a battleground state. While the Democrat and President Bush still have legions of supporters working in the state, Missouri hasn't been a focus of television advertising or candidate visits for weeks. Polls suggest that with the race close nationally Bush leads in Missouri; Kerry's only chance of winning the state is if he takes the national popular vote by several percentage points, strategists in both parties say. Story Continues Below The road to the White House normally runs through Missouri, a state that has sided with the winner in every election...

Our Coming Electoral Train Wrecks By William J. Stuntz Four years ago, Al Gore got half a million more votes than George W. Bush -- about one-half of one percent of the total -- but, thanks to Florida, Bush won the electoral vote. Democrats have been outraged ever since. What would happen if Bush or Kerry were to win the popular vote by three or four million votes -- but still lose in the electoral college? Welcome to the Mother of All Legitimacy Crises. And to the Administration That Cannot Govern. It could easily happen. Based on the polls reported...

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes Alabama 96.7 9 0 Alaska 97.5 3 0 Arizona 92.5 10 0 Arkansas 83.0 6 0 California 5.4 0 55 Colorado 81.5 9 0 Connecticut 7.4 0 7 Delaware 7.4 0 3 District of Columbia 1.5 0 3 Florida 63.0 27 0 Georgia 96.6 15 0 Hawaii 15.8 0 4 Idaho 95.6 4 0 Illinois 6.6 0 21 Indiana 96.0 11 0 Iowa 63.6 7 0 Kansas 96.3 6 0 Kentucky 95.0 8 0 Louisiana 93.9 9 0 Maine 17.5 0 4 Maryland 8.0 0 10 Massachusetts...

"Strong Kerry (88) Weak Kerry (117) Barely Kerry (52) Exactly tied (10) Barely Bush (55) Weak Bush (69) Strong Bush (147) Needed to win: (270)"

RCP Electoral Count: Bush 227 - Kerry 189*

WASHINGTON - What might a John Kerry victory look like? What might a George Bush victory look like? This story is not an attempt to predict the outcome of the elections to be held on Nov. 2 in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. It is a reasonable estimate, based on voting history, advertising buys, candidate visits and current polling, of how Kerry might plausibly reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win, or conversely, how Bush might do so.

(Interactive Electoral College Map of the United States)

"Analysis Oct. 21, noon ET: Big lift for Bush in this morning's polls. He's safer in West Virginia, is in better position to take Ohio, is in good position to take New Hampshire, and has taken Wisconsin outright. He loses one electoral vote in Maine, but the 10 from Wisconsin bump him up from 261 to 271, giving him the election."

WASHINGTON — Republicans are quietly assembling an army of volunteers to boost President Bush's showing in states like Georgia, where he already has a comfortable lead in the polls. The energized voter outreach is driven, in part, by the hope that a surge for the president will help elect Republicans to Congress, statewide offices and state legislatures. "We want our candidates to be able to open their spinnakers up in the home stretch and catch the Bush tailwind," said Ralph Reed, a Georgia political consultant who is Bush-Cheney campaign chairman for the Southeast. A presidential visit and a voter turnout...

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes Alabama 96.5 9 0 Alaska 95.5 3 0 Arizona 91.5 10 0 Arkansas 80.5 6 0 California 6.7 0 55 Colorado 72.0 9 0 Connecticut 5.7 0 7 Delaware 9.6 0 3 District of Columbia 1.5 0 3 Florida 64.3 27 0 Georgia 95.7 15 0 Hawaii 5.5 0 4 Idaho 95.5 4 0 Illinois 8.5 0 21 Indiana 94.3 11 0 Iowa 56.5 7 0 Kansas 94.1 6 0 Kentucky 93.1 8 0 Louisiana 92.6 9 0 Maine 21.5 0 4 Maryland 9.8 0 10 Massachusetts...

State by State 2004: Default View Bush: 298 Electoral Votes (144 likely, 154 uncertain)Kerry: 240 Electoral Votes (150 likely, 90 uncertain) Current View: Default View Default view bases electoral calculations on the latest available poll, regardless of whether or not the poll includes Ralph Nader, whether it samples likely voters, registered voters, or 'other' (Zogby), and regardless of the pollster who conducted the poll. Latest Polls Added: GA: Bush +19% (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) MN: Kerry +3% (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) MN: Kerry +2% (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) MI: Kerry +9% (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14)...

I'm calling it for Bush today, 10/15/2004. Bush 320 Electoral Votes, Kerry 218 Electoral Votes.

Excerpt: But I remain confident that Dubya will win on election day. I can think of 10 significant reasons why this is the case, and I thought I would share them with you.1. Electoral math favors Bush. There has been a lot of talk in the media about how close this race is, how there are some hotly contested states this time around -- and that the states combine for enough EVs to tip the race. This is true, but as with so much of the conventional wisdom, it fails to capture the context of this election. Yes -- there...

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PORTLAND, Maine -- People who live here say there are two different Maines -- the liberal, populous and wealthy southern coast and the conservative, sparsely populated and poorer north. Those different Maines could split its four electoral votes by awarding one candidate three votes and the other candidate the one remaining. That lone electoral vote could determine the election: in 2000, George W. Bush defeated Al Gore 271-266, barely collecting the 270 electoral votes required for victory. Under state law, Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one apiece to the winner in each of its congressional...

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes Alabama 96.0 9 0 Alaska 95.5 3 0 Arizona 86.0 10 0 Arkansas 82.0 6 0 California 7.0 0 55 Colorado 68.0 9 0 Connecticut 6.0 0 7 Delaware 10.0 0 3 District of Columbia 2.5 0 3 Florida 62.5 27 0 Georgia 93.5 15 0 Hawaii 6.5 0 4 Idaho 95.5 4 0 Illinois 9.0 0 21 Indiana 93.0 11 0 Iowa 55.0 7 0 Kansas 93.0 6 0 Kentucky 91.0 8 0 Louisiana 91.5 9 0 Maine 24.0 0 4 Maryland 12.0 0 10 Massachusetts...

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes Alabama 96.0 9 0 Alaska 98.0 3 0 Arizona 86.0 10 0 Arkansas 87.1 6 0 California 8.3 0 55 Colorado 76.0 9 0 Connecticut 7.0 0 7 Delaware 13.0 0 3 District of Columbia 1.0 0 3 Florida 63.0 27 0 Georgia 97.0 15 0 Hawaii 8.0 0 4 Idaho 97.0 4 0 Illinois 7.5 0 21 Indiana 96.0 11 0 Iowa 58.0 7 0 Kansas 96.0 6 0 Kentucky 91.5 8 0 Louisiana 96.0 9 0 Maine 26.5 0 4 Maryland 18.0 0 10 Massachusetts...

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes Alabama 96.0 9 0 Alaska 96.0 3 0 Arizona 91.0 10 0 Arkansas 81.0 6 0 California 10.5 0 55 Colorado 78.0 9 0 Connecticut 7.0 0 7 Delaware 19.0 0 3 District of Columbia 1.0 0 3 Florida 62.0 27 0 Georgia 97.0 15 0 Hawaii 10.0 0 4 Idaho 96.0 4 0 Illinois 12.0 0 21 Indiana 97.0 11 0 Iowa 59.0 7 0 Kansas 96.0 6 0 Kentucky 92.0 8 0 Louisiana 94.5 9 0 Maine 26.0 0 4 Maryland 18.5 0 10 Massachusetts...

Check out this interactive Electoral vote map. You can customize it to remove polls, add Nader, remove Nader, lots of options.

Bush ahead in swing states, will defeat Kerry: Karl Rove Thu Sep 23, 1:03 PM ET WASHINGTON (AFP) - US President George W. Bush will defeat his Democratic rival, John Kerry, in the November 2 election because he is leading in the polls in the key US swing states, the president's top political adviser said in an interview. Karl Rove, who has a Machiavellian reputation as a political mastermind, said in an interview with The Washington Times that many states "that were expected to be in close contention are floating out of contention" and into Bush's camp. With the US...

Guys, I'm an electoral vote nut, and have a spreadsheet where I keep track of the electoral process... and while the state polls that have been coming out are trickling in, they mean a WORLD OF HURT for Kerry. I'll explain briefly: IF Bush is able to win Florida (and three polls released in the last 24 hours say that he has a darn good shot at it --- including Kerry's internal polls which they admitted show Kerry down 7) and Wisconsin (every poll, and historical momentum pointing in the right direction there as well), then Kerry as to win...

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes Alabama 96.0 9 0 Alaska 96.0 3 0 Arizona 83.0 10 0 Arkansas 80.0 6 0 California 9.5 0 55 Colorado 76.0 9 0 Connecticut 7.0 0 7 Delaware 18.0 0 3 District of Columbia 1.0 0 3 Florida 70.0 27 0 Georgia 97.0 15 0 Hawaii 10.0 0 4 Idaho 96.0 4 0 Illinois 12.0 0 21 Indiana 96.0 11 0 Iowa 45.0 0 7 Kansas 96.0 6 0 Kentucky 92.0 8 0 Louisiana 91.0 9 0 Maine 28.0 0 4 Maryland 16.0 0 10 Massachusetts...