REPOST *** Final CAMEC Projections of 2004 Presidential Election *** REPOST

11-01-04 | Josh in PA

[Josh in PA]

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 

........Bush    	Kerry   	Nader	Others	Bush %	Kerry %	BUSH EV	KERRY EV
AL      1,081,230 	671,538 	14,250 	14,250 	60.7%	37.7%	9	
AK	214,668 	128,358 	17,705 	8,115 	58.2%	34.8%	3	
AZ	984,376 	828,949 	N/A	37,007 	53.2%	44.8%	10	
AR	604,025 	521,502 	10,315 	10,315 	52.7%	45.5%	6	
CA	5,340,714 	6,342,098 	N/A	238,425	44.8%	53.2%		55
CO	1,098,165 	975,669 	45,130 	30,087 	51.1%	45.4%	9	
CT	705,326 	881,658 	28,705 	24,604 	43.0%	53.8%		7
DE	178,960 	219,633 	5,084 	3,050 	44.0%	54.0%		3
DC	33,531 	        216,664 	5,159 	2,579 	13.0%	84.0%		3
FL	3,508,207 	3,202,259 	54,391 	33,994 	51.6%	47.1%	27	
GA	1,606,182 	1,179,187 	N/A	42,417 	56.8%	41.7%	15	
HI	247,879 	244,345 	N/A	12,621 	49.1%	48.4%	4	
ID	362,351 	166,987 	N/A	16,371 	66.4%	30.6%	4	
IL	2,323,137 	2,833,602 	N/A	52,088 	44.6%	54.4%		21
IN	1,540,899 	1,103,327 	N/A	40,267 	57.4%	41.1%	11	
IA      840,978 	807,271 	20,224 	16,853 	49.9%	47.9%	7	
KS	749,881 	481,248 	22,917 	19,097 	58.9%	37.8%	6	
KY	1,086,136 	742,069 	16,738 	14,879 	58.4%	39.9%	8	
LA	1,117,209 	887,256 	14,245 	16,280 	54.9%	43.6%	9	
ME	364,288 	393,337 	19,628 	7,851 	46.4%	50.1%	1	3
MD      990,427 	1,261,588 	27,576 	18,384 	43.1%	54.9%		10
MA	1,136,961 	1,780,242 	N/A	74,800 	38.0%	59.5%		12
MI	2,302,668 	2,354,679 	37,826 	33,098 	48.7%	49.8%		17
MN	1,343,268 	1,323,920 	55,279 	41,459 	48.6%	47.9%	10	
MS	693,712 	470,733 	7,079 	8,258 	58.8%	39.9%	6	
MO	1,394,513 	1,270,676 	N/A	26,921 	51.8%	47.2%	11	
MT	313,797 	184,004 	13,031 	10,425 	60.2%	35.3%	3	
NE	524,723 	278,425 	12,356 	8,237 	63.7%	33.8%	5	
NV      405,026 	367,773 	11,889 	7,926 	51.1%	46.4%	5	
NH	302,590 	308,228 	9,397 	6,265 	48.3%	49.2%		4
NJ	1,584,417 	1,751,378 	44,296 	27,259 	46.5%	51.4%		15
NM	397,722 	367,128 	11,767 	7,845 	50.7%	46.8%	5	
NY 	3,072,429 	4,198,490 	111,860 74,574 	41.2%	56.3%		31
NC	1,860,069 	1,575,506 	N/A	34,703 	53.6%	45.4%	15	
ND	211,063 	119,914 	6,931 	8,664 	60.9%	34.6%	3	
OH	2,904,354 	2,743,956 	N/A	80,199 	50.7%	47.9%	20	
OK	869,148 	512,002 	N/A	13,951 	62.3%	36.7%	7	
OR      800,537 	854,582 	N/A	33,778 	47.4%	50.6%		7
PA	2,636,463 	2,679,419 	N/A	53,696 	49.1%	49.9%		21
RI      209,236 	307,165 	13,378 	5,351 	39.1%	57.4%		4
SC	958,439 	660,879 	13,152 	11,508 	58.3%	40.2%	8	
SD	217,057 	147,183 	4,460 	2,973 	58.4%	39.6%	3	
TN	1,327,809 	1,004,126 	16,539 	14,176 	56.2%	42.5%	11	
TX	4,569,221 	2,822,166 	N/A	74,660 	61.2%	37.8%	34	
UT	614,659 	255,056 	18,025 	13,519 	68.2%	28.3%	5	
VT	135,032 	174,215 	9,715 	4,857 	41.7%	53.8%		3
VA	1,693,700 	1,481,988 	N/A	32,078 	52.8%	46.2%	13	
WA	1,258,821 	1,399,302 	41,318 	55,091 	45.7%	50.8%		11
WV	394,177 	342,568 	6,732 	4,488 	52.7%	45.8%	5	
WI	1,500,290 	1,431,138 	45,099 	30,066 	49.9%	47.6%	10	
WY	129,249 	67,079 	        3,068 	5,113 	63.2%	32.8%	3	
TOTAL   60,739,725 	57,322,464 	795k    1465k 	50.5%	47.7%	311	227
	50.48%	        47.64%	        0.66%	1.22%				

[Josh in PA]

CAMEC is a computer program I've written that combines some 30+ variables, from polls, registration, previous election results, various economic indicators(misery, gdp, few others), a few other variables as well. I've devised a formula that combines all these variables and spits out numbers as so. You can search "CAMEC" in FreeRepublic history for previous projections.

Reposting it for those who missed it last night.

[hawaiian]

I love it!

[Mayflower Sister]

Did you predict in 2000 or 2002?

[EggsAckley]

Already posted.



(just kidding)

[cvq3842]

sounds good to me!

turnout will be key.

[True Grit]

I'll drink to that.

[FrankRepublican]

Pretty neat. Not sure where you came up with 3.5 million votes for Bush in FL. He got about 3 million in 2000 and Jeb got about the same in 2002.

One variable that is supposedly very good is the money donated in state versus out of state as it measures intensity. When locals donate versus out of state $ - the local money usually wins.

Lord knows the RNC thinks I am an easy touch with my checkbook. Ditto the Swifties, NRA, etc.

[dwilli]

If Rush Limbaugh is happy today he has good news from his
insiders in the party. If he rants & raves he has bad news
from the same source.

[GSlob]

Well, hopefully we'll find out in ca. 40 hours. To err feels divine, but to really screw things up it takes a computer...

[Still German Shepherd]

Good point, and I have been "eagerly awaiting" the start of Rush's show, coming up in a couple minutes.

[cvq3842]

Sounds about right.

Time will tell.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Your model seems okay, although I can't say I agree with a projection of 12 million new voters over 2000.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Excuse me. I see you ar eprojecting over 15 million new voters - I missed the Nader/other columns.

That seems extremely optimistic.

[dwilli]

If there's 12 million new voters,the White House call the movers and start packing.

[Skip Ripley]

CAMEC? Hell, it could be Carnac for all I care. It agrees with my world view so I'm all for it.

[dwilli]

I hear no great jubilation in Limbaugh's voice, started
off the first segment campaigning more that commenting.

[Laserman]

Have you anchored it with past election results? If not, it is just election noise. If so, it would be very enlightening.

[Josh in PA]

The high voter turnout helps Dems is a myth perpetrated by the left and the media.

There are just as many Republicans out there that don't vote than Democrats. Trust me on this!!!

This is one of the most blatant false urban myth's associated with politics.

[not too stupid]

ping

[Josh in PA]

I'll remind you. 46 million people voted for Richard Nixon in 1972. Only 4 million less than what Bush got in 2000.