Electoralvote.com final predictions...(not good)

electoral vote.com ^ | October 26, 2004 | self

[KsSunflower]

Although their current map looks good, take a look at their final prediction for the election. Under the map you can check their assumptions, but yikes!

[KsSunflower]

take a look and see what you think

[the invisib1e hand]

take a look and see what you think

I don't have to look to know that I think it's bullsh*t. G'nite.

[WOSG]

HE's a Democrat - yawn - wont even go there - stay with realclearpolitics, and work like hell to get Bush elected.

[Blackyce]

I think that any count that gives Kerry Colorado can be immediately discredited. It ain't gonna happen.

[GrandmaPatriot]

Undecideds don't break for challenger on presidential election. This prediction is trash. They acknowledge that they are partisan.

[GeronL]

Its a liberal site, by the way

[KsSunflower]

I'm there...signed up at the RNC site, but haven't heard a thing. Even the local republican organization is pathetic here. Can't find a phone number for them, their local office was closed on Saturday.

[Jose Roberto]

The most fair electoral vote predictor is www.Coldheartedtruth.com and I think Race2004 is pretty good, too.

[GeorgeBerryman]

The model they're using shows Florida as 'tied.' Florida will not be tied. It's also got Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Minnesota for Kerry and Wisconsin as 'tied.' There's no way. This model's way too optimistic for Kerry and has him winning almost all of the swing states.

[aft_lizard]

That site had Tennesee going to Kerry at one time even though no poll has ever shown a Kerry lead

[WOSG]

His own polls show Bush leads in OH - he give is to Kerry ... and he give CO to Kerry.

what are you worried about? A Democrat made a pipe-dream for Kerry.

It could happen if you dont work and phone and walk block and write emails, and convince Bush-haters, etc

BUT IT WONT HAPPEN IF WE ALL WORK TOWARDS BUSH'S VICTORY.

If you need Iraq talking points, go here:
http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com

[jennyjenny]

It also has Kerry winning Colorado. It's BS. The guy is a dem.

[The_Reader_David]

Don't sweat it. That site always gives a 'best reasonable case' for Kerry. (Breaking 2-1 for challenger is not what has happened in any presidential election since Roosevelt vs. Wilkie. The only times the undecides broke for the challenger have been when the challenger was from the right: Reagan/Carter and (believe it or not) Goldwater/Johnson.)

Besides, it's the demonRATs who are behind the proposal in CO to split the EV's, since the state is becoming increasingly Republican over time. Strike four from Kerry if that carries.

[T-Boy]

If you go to the previous pages, you'll see he pulled the predictor page link a few weeks back, when Bush was leading by a large margin. Only recently, when he has Kerry up in the final, he put this final predictor page back up.

[unspun]

Ludicrous. Does not comply with polls.

[Lunkhead_01]

The biggest assumption is that the "undecideds" will break 2-to-1 for Kerry. That has NEVER happened in a general election. Pat Cadell noted in research he did in the early 1980s that the "undecideds" tend to break 3-to-2 for the incumbent because they know what they have and that change entails risk. What this clown is trying to tell us is that historical averages say the break should be Bush 60 Kerry 40 but he expects Bush 33 Kerry 67 That might happen but it would require a full 27% of the "undecideds" to swing en masse from the encumbent to the challenger. Note that the jerk manages with the wind blowing in the right direction for Kerry to rack up 271 electoral votes, one more than necessary with 50 electoral votes (AR 6, IA 7, FL 27, and WI 10) undecided. The attempt is to make people who intend to vote for President Bush to think the election is over and not vote because the message to the voters in AR, IA, FL, and WI is "It doesn't matter if Bush wins your state or not, he comes up with only 268 electoral votes even if he wins all four states." What the poster (poser?) of this map isn't saying is that Bush may already be on the road to victory in all the red states and all the four states identified as tossups as well as other states colored blue on the map. For example, MN is not likely Kerry 53%, Bush 45%. Note there is no reference for the poll that shows that. The same is now true of many of the other states. (That is because this map shows a fantasy of the poster.) Note that the map shows Ohio Kerry 50%, Bush 49% with Kerry getting 5% of the 8% undecideds and Bush getting 3%. If Ohio breaks according to Cadell, the current Kerry 45%, Bush 47% would become Kerry 48.2%, Bush 51.8% with Kerry's electoral vote total being 251 and Bush's being 237. This map is based upon wishful thinking ... or maybe knowledge that some of the counties in Ohio have more than 110% of those eligible to register actually registered.

[Johnnyboy2000]

This poll is biased. The poll has Kerry winning Arkansas which immediately sets off red flags. The poll also has Kerry winning Ohio, Florida, and Colorado. Kerry will not win one of those states.

[Remember_Salamis]

Don't get you panties in a bunch. Electoral Vote.com included one of the largest myth in electoral politics: that undecideds ALWAYS brak for the challenger. IT IS NOT TRUE! They break for the challenger in congressional races, but it is almost the oppostite in presidential elections.

These bozoes at ElectoralVote.com, who have been innacurate all year, have over 2/3 of undecideds going to Kerry, regardless of state. He also has the audacity to Call COLORADO for Kerry!!!! The RealClearPolitics average for Colorado has Bush up by 4.7%, but this clown cites the one out-in-left-field from Zogby that has Kerry with a +2% lead (all the other polls have Bush up by 6% or 7%).

... Oh! I just saw that this clown just updated his map to have Bush winning 285-247. I think he did his math wrong. But he still has CO going Kerry Stick to RealClearPolitics, buddy:

[xm177e2]

#1: that is a left-wing web site. (for instance, look at the sites and cartoons it links to--all left-wing, at least that I saw).

#2: it relies on the assumption that The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry). Will they? Time will tell.

[xm177e2]

but this clown cites the one out-in-left-field from Zogby that has Kerry with a +2% lead (all the other polls have Bush up by 6% or 7%).

In defense of electoral-vote.com, that failure is not because of bias, it's because of poor methodology. According to the site, they always use just the most recent poll, which in this case is the Zogby.

If the proprietors got rid of Zogby and maybe averaged state polls over 2 or 3 results (at least, if they were recent enough), it would probably be better.