Posted on 05/25/2004 6:10:33 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
KERRY TAKES THE LEAD
Bush 46.86% - 254 | Kerry 49.24% - 284
May 25, 2004
Despite a slightly smaller margin of 2.38% in favor of Kerry, compared to last week’s 2.38%, Bush falls behind in the electoral vote after losing Pennsylvania. Two recent polls show Kerry with leads of 5 and 6 in Pennsylvania, returning that state to blue. Pennsylvania now Leans Kerry, with a lead of 1.17% of the two-party vote. This is consistent with historical Pennsylvania trends. Pennsylvania has voted more heavily Democrat than the nation as a whole every year since 1960. Sure, Ronald Reagan won Pennsylvania in 1980 and 1984, but each time by a smaller margin than the national popular vote. What does this tell us? If this election is as close as 2000 and Pennsylvania remains consistent with its past, Kerry will win its electoral votes. Keep in mind, of course, that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Despite Pennsylvania’s tendency to be more Democratic than the nation, the trend may be in the Republican’s favor. In 1984, Reagan won the state by a margin of 7.35%. But he won the national popular vote by 18.22%. Thus, Pennsylvania in 1984 was 10.87% more Democratic in 1984 than the nation as a whole. In 1988, it was only 5.42% more Democratic, and in 1992, 3.46%; 1996, 0.68%. The trend since 1984 has been in favor of the Republicans. However, in 2000, Gore won Pennsylvania by 4.17%, which was a win of 3.65% of greater than the national popular vote. The overall trend since 1984 might favor the Republicans, but the 2000 results suggests that Pennsylvania may have turned around.
That’s why they call it a Battleground State.
By analyzing a state’s popular vote as compared to the national popular vote, we can determine whether a state leans Democrat or Republican. Sure, Bush 41 won California, but does that mean that after 3 elections voting Republican, that California was trending Republican? No. It began its pro-Democrat trend in 1984. Reagan won the state by 2% less than he won the national popular vote. Bush 41 won California by 4.16% less than he won the national popular vote, and the numbers only get worse for the Republicans in the 1990s.
So, what are the other Battleground States assuming the national popular vote is close, based on trends? I have categorized a state as a 1988 Battleground if its median variance from the national popular vote margin since 1988 is less than 6%.
That’s 19 states. Of those, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin are most often mentioned among today’s list of Battlegrounds. Not included on the list, but mentioned as 2004 Battlegrounds because of the 2000 results are Arkansas, Arizona, Minnesota and West Virginia.
But, by looking at the trend lines (I’ve used a polynomial trend line in Excel because, well, it looks reasonable and I admit I have no idea what would be the best type of trend line), we can say that the following states should be in play in 2004 – assuming a close national popular vote. If the trend holds and the national vote is near even (the winner is in parenthesis).
Out of play, Colorado (Bush), Delaware (Kerry), Tennessee (Bush) and Washington (Kerry). More on these trends another day.
The Job Approval numbers are interesting. Approve/Disapprove numbers this week are as follows: Gallup: 47/49; ABC News 47/50; CBS 41/52; Fox 48/43. That’s interesting, CBS and Fox seem odd. Perhaps there’s a reason for Fox’s odd number, while CBS’ is probably a statistical aberration (consistent with its head-to-head numbers, which show a Kerry lead of 6 while all the other polls are within 2). Fox asks a different question than Gallup, ABC and CBS. Fox asks “Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?” The other pollsters ask “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?” One question sounds like it is asking about the job someone is doing. The bottom line. The other seems to be about style as well. Not about the job that is done, but about the method in which it is handled. I wonder why?
Now, this week’s data. Kerry has been running his ads and Bush’s approval ratings have dropped. Result, bump for Kerry. As Bush begins his speeches about the Iraq transition, we’ll see if there’s any movement his way over the next few weeks.
The States
Margin of Lead
(+Bush | -Kerry)
Battlegrounds in Green
|
Alaska | 26.63% Arizona | 4.32% Arkansas | 2.66% California | -6.09% Colorado | 7.55% Connecticut | -20.21% Delaware | -16.18% District of Columbia | -80.67% Florida | 0.64% Georgia | 9.44% Hawaii | -22.50% Idaho | 37.36% Illinois | -6.90% Indiana | 19.05% Iowa | -2.51% Kansas | 17.75% Kentucky | 12.08% Louisiana | 11.50% Maine | -9.12% Maryland | -10.71% Massachusetts | -24.78% Michigan | -2.05% Minnesota | -9.63% Mississippi | 14.47% Missouri | 1.92% Montana | 21.53% Nebraska | 25.84% Nevada | 4.29% New Hampshire | -1.96% New Jersey | -5.42% New Mexico | -1.28% New York | -18.36% North Carolina | 7.50% North Dakota | 25.12% Ohio | -3.93% Oklahoma | 19.14% Oregon | -0.17% Pennsylvania | -1.17% Rhode Island | -33.26% South Carolina | 13.28% South Dakota | 16.82% Tennessee | 5.85% Texas | 18.43% Utah | 43.63% Vermont | -14.29% Virginia | 5.12% Washington | -6.48% West Virginia | 3.85% Wisconsin | -3.11% Wyoming | 37.89%
 |
BUMP. As always, good analysis, Darth.
Likewise for MI, although a little less edgy. The Rat strongholds of Detroit and Ann Arbor will be a tough base for Bush and the Republicans to beat. If Bush wins MI, I'll eat my hat.
What does this mean? Well, for one thing, Bush needs to work like hell to win Ohio. Right now, he's behind here, and doesn't seem to have been able to make inroads in rebuilding his support. If we lose OH, with the way PA and MI are trending, I think it's game over.
FL also recently has been looking a a little too close for comfort. I was originally of a mind that FL was a little safer this time around for Bush. But the last poll I saw indicated it's moved to the Tossup category. Not a good sign, IMO.
Time to ditch this "wait until later" attitude. The future is now, and I'm afraid "later" will turn into "too late".
Pinging the usual suspects.
And don't forget Theresa Heinz. I recently read that she is very popular in Pennsylvania on account of the charitable work she's done there.
I just don't see how Bush is going to pull this off. I'm getting ready for 4-8 miserable years.
Bush has to push grass roots mobilization in all the battleground states. I know it is happening here in OR, but it is important to keep registered Republicans mobilized in favor of Bush.
That is the only thing we have control over. We have no control over media coverage or events. Let us focus on the grass roots.
In addition, anecdotal evidence from diff. states suggests a less enthusiastic base of support among blacks and Jews for Kerry. This is a fundamental Kerry weakness ignored in these polls.
It is not looking good, but it isn't over yet. In these turbulent times, virtually anything could happen between now and November.
You are right...NOW IS THE TIME...there were several posters pooh-poohing a Zogby poll suggesting that Kerry now has taken the lead in the battleground states...this poll seems to back the Zogby poll.
It is time for the "It's too early" folk to wake up...it is time for the grass roots to send a message to the GOP...RUN THE DAMN ATTACK ADS NOW...SHOW KERRY CALLING OUR SERVICEMEN MURDERERS....SHOW KERRY SAYING IT OUT IF HIS OWN MOUTH....Concerning a "plan for Iraq" by Kerry, show Kerry saying:
"Yes, I voted for the war, but I only voted for the threat of force, not the actual use of force."
Now THAT is a plan.
You sure love to spam these threads with your negative comments. Do you and the rest of the "sky is falling" people on here realize how far we are from the election?
Anyone that takes all of this serious right now needs a reality check. So much can happen between now and November and most people are more concerned about the end of the school year and what they are doing this summer to worry about the election. Not everyone is like Freepers.
Now lose that negativity before you drive some of us more positive types up a wall. Getting really annoying to see it day after day on this forum. If you and others are so convinced by these stupid polls so far out that Bush is going to lose and it will be horrible, then do something about it -- get out and volunteer and get away from your computer for awhile and see what the real world is doing! Mainly quit spamming with negative comments day after day!
It is obvious that this forum is being spammed by people that do not support the reelection of President Bush and hope to make people get down with their negative comments. Well if that is the purpose, think again -- you are making me and thousands like me really irritated and want to work for President Bush even more.
If the people are tired of having gun rights and winning the war on terrorism, then I guess we'll just have to put up with kerry.
Sad to see how awful this country can be. We'll deserve whatever we get if/when kerry wins.
My opinion on these bad polls is my business. How dare you accuse me of spamming. Do you even know what that word means?
Teresa Heinz is not known outside of the Pittsburgh area any better than she is in Idaho. In the Pittsburgh area she is something of a joke. People there have always known she's a little . . . eccentric.
That's easy... They'll pull the race card out as we get closer to the election. That will surely firm up the support.
The Zogby Battleground poll is not to be taken seriously. The methodology is unorthodox, they have Iowa going to Bush while Missouri goes to Kerry.
Dales has a great discussion of it here.
But it is far too soon to start looking at the Electoral College.
I agree with you on the Zobgy (at least this partiular poll mentioned)...my main point is that it is almost IMPOSSIBLE to find a poll with good news...and for those who just dismiss them out of hand, it is my contention that this dimissive attitude towards these polls is a serious mistake.
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