Posted on 09/23/2004 1:48:38 PM PDT by Mister Sam
Electoral Votes: Bush 328, Kerry 210
Popular Vote: Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.1%
Does anyone remember some prognosticator in 2000...I think his name was something like Oliveri or Olivetti...he had his predictions online, too. Anyone remember?
He currently has a blog site. But it deals more with his personal life and talks little about the election.
The last I saw / read on his blog site he was predicting a Kerry victory. (but this was like 2 months ago).
1.Kerry's an Ass 2.Kerry's an Ass 3.Kerry's an Ass 4.Kerry's an Ass 5.Kerry's an Ass 6.Kerry's an Ass 7.Kerry's an Ass 8.Kerry's an Ass 9.Kerry's an Ass 10.Kerry's an Ass 11.Kerry's an Ass 12.Kerry's an Ass 13.Kerry's an Ass 14.Kerry's an Ass 15.Kerry's an Ass 16.Kerry's an Ass 17.Kerry's an Ass 18.Kerry's an Ass 19.Kerry's an Ass 20.Kerry's an Ass and 21......Kerry's an Ass
More reasons why Bush will win:
Kerry is a liar.
Kerry is a flip flopper extraordinaire.
Kerry is a metrosexual gigolo and Americans typically prefer to elect real men to elective office.
of course it is not time to become overconfident
We need to bury the Demcrat Party, permanently.
1 reason Kerry will win: Voter fraud.
Half of New York city will be voting in Florida this year from their time-share addresses.
If the popular vote is within 5 points, then Kerry will win the electoral college with targeted Democratic voter fraud.
The main reaspon is that the 'rats don't have any adults in their campaign office. Shrum and Mary Beth Cahill have nothing going for them other than ideology. Hell, Shrum is 0-7 and he STILL gets a major say in the Lurch campaign. The 'rats are too busy feeling superior to the ignorant Texas hick and all his stupid supporters that think terrorists=evildoers and dead evildoers=good to run an effective campaign.
Elliot actually overlooks the major reason we can expect Bush to win.
The Kerry campaign is absolutely awful. On every level, they have been out-hustled, out-thought and out-gunned by the Bushies. Kerry/Edwards '04 now officially combines the worst of Dole/Kemp '96 (No definite direction), Dukakis/Benson '88 (Serious questions about the candidate's credibility/likeability), McGovern/Shriver '72 (Anti-war).
I could go on and on about this. We all know about the flip-flopping (the fact that we all know about it is a sign of how bad the Kerry campaign is). But there is the fact that Kerry has unnecessarily angered major elements of his base (black leaders and union leaders do not like him...think back to how he snubbed the US Conference of Mayors). He has been slow to respond to Bush attacks. He has responded to them poorly, making himself seem more thin-skinned than anything. His state-by-state organization is sorely lacking. He was horribly slow in getting people on the ground in key states like Ohio. There is evidence that people on the ground in his campaign are disheartened (Kerry has been using Ted Kennedy on internal calls to juice them up). His campaign is top-heavy, laden with consultants and policy advisors. His campaign sorely lacks discipline (e.g. it is absurd that they are so undisciplined that they could not keep his private conversations with Clinton secret...they could not even keep the content of those conversations secret). It lacks an overall, cohesive strategic vision (e.g. Why would they pick Edwards to be veep and basically let him go unnoticed for three months? Clearly, they had no long-term plan on how they would use his presence on the campaign). It makes insufficient use of the new technology on this campaign: Shrum has so far run it like it is a whistle-stop campaign from the '60s rather than a tech-savvy 21st century movement.
Clearly, the buck stops with Kerry. He is the central problem. It is his fault that the campaign has been poorly run. The smoking gun that proves this fact is Teresea. She is awful. She should be nowhere to be found...yet she is still out there, talking to press about the fact that her husband doesn't care he is losing in Arizona. The only person who can muzzle Teresea is her husband. He is personally not doing what he has to do to run the campaign properly.
Meanwhile, there is no doubt that Bush/Cheney '04 is one of the best campaigns ever. They are sophisticated, tech-savvy, efficient, intelligent. They have been out in front of everything for about six months. The Bushies put together an election plan in 2003 and it is still the operative plan of the campaign. That is a sign of their success.
Bush/Cheney is varsity league. Kerry/Edwards is junior varsity.
Perfect example of this fact: Check out this article (if you haven't already). http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6073233/ The Bushies have found a major loophole in campaign finance laws which gives them access to nearly $90 million of RNC cash. Good for the AP for finding this, and I am sure the Dems will play catch up, but here is the take-home point from that article: "Jano Cabrera, a Democratic National Committee spokesman, said Democratic officials were unfamiliar with the GOP ad strategy until asked about it by a reporter." Can you believe this? The Republicans had found a MAJOR "loophole" that the Democrats didn't notice until the AP told them!
Why else do you think Rove is so confidant to Bill Sammon in the Washington Times? He knows they have Kerry/Edwards out-gunned on almost every level -- from the top of the ticket to the precient-level organizations.
Campaigns still matter. Bush's is one of the best modern campaigns. Kerry's is one of the worst.
I'll add a few.
Kerry is so obviously a two-faced, self-obsessed lying traitor, that even his own constituency is beginning to turn away from him in embarrassment.
bttt
My prediction: Bush wins by seven or more; the dems put everything into Florida, and lose America. The storyline of this election will be Bush winning ALL of middle America , with the exception of Illinois and Michigan (MI will be much closer than expected), and the Republicans no longer needing Florida. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota going Republican sends shock waves through the Democratic Party establishment as their future is now in the shaky hands of old folks in Florida clutching onto their walkers.
The curtain is down on the dem's effort to get the White House.....kerry is padding his accounts with money not spent on the campaign.......remember, he gets to keep it.
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