FederalReview Composite Poll and E.V. Prediction, May 11, 2004, Bush 49.00 - 290 | Kerry 47.59 - 248

Federal Review ^ | May 11, 2004 | Federal Review

[Darth Reagan]

Stable Race, Bush Still Leads  Bush 49.00 | Kerry 47.59
May 11, 2004

Despite dire warnings from the pundits about Bush's electability after the USA Today Gallup Poll showed Bush's approval ratings relatively unchanged since February, the race remains tight, with Bush maintaining a slight lead over Kerry in this week's Composite Poll.  Bush leads the Composite Popular Vote 49.0% to 49.6%, and he leads the Electoral Vote Prediction 290-248.   When eliminating the Battleground states (which are in the "Lean" category where the current projected margin for any candidate is less than 6%), Bush has the advantage in states with 182 electoral votes, Kerry has the advantage in states with 108 electoral votes and the Battleground states are worth 248 electoral votes.  Obviously, despite what Zogby says, this race is far from over.  It is anybody's to win.

Although the reported numbers in the Electoral College are relatively unchanged from last week, there are significant changes in the raw numbers and the corresponding map colors.  This results from a methodology change (I promise, it will probably be my last significant change).  I have weighted recent state polling more heavily than in the past, assigning greatest weight to the most recent polls and less weight to older polls and to the Composite Poll baseline, which is based on 2000 results.  Thus, a recent California poll showing Bush down by only 1% in California, throws that state into the "Lean" category for Kerry.  But since Gore won California by 12% in 2000, this analysis takes that into some account, and we currently project Kerry to win California by 5.6% (in an April poll, Kerry held a 10 point lead in California).  As future polls are included, we'll get a better idea of whether there really will be a race in California and whether the campaigns better conserve some cash for those expensive media markets.  Do I believe the California poll that showed Kerry with a 1 point lead?  I don't know, it does seem like an aberration, but the same poll showed Barbara Boxer with an 8 point lead over her Republican opponent, a result consistent with her 10 point win in 1998.  At the very least, I think we can say that Kerry is garnering about 7% less support than Boxer is.  But, in short, I need another poll!

Now, to the data.

This Week’s Polls
FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics
CNN / USA Today / Gallup
Rasmussen Research 
Quinnipiac University Poll
Iowa Electronic Market
Last Week’s Poll

Last Week’s Polls
CBS / New York Times
Rasmussen Research
Iowa Electronic Market

I chose to use the Quinnipiac poll because of the length of time over which its polling was conducted (over a week) and because it had a large sample of 2,016 registered voters.  The Investor's Business Daily Poll was not used because it is the most extreme of the existing polls and I've not used it before.  It currently shows a Bush lead of 5 points.

Since last week’s polls (remember, there was a methodology change placing greater reliance on recent polling and less on the 2000 results):  

Bush State Gains
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

  Kerry State Gains
Ohio

Composite History

Date	Bush	Kerry
9-Mar	49.0	49.1
16-Mar	50.3	48.4
23-Mar	49.2	48.6
30-Mar	49.8	47.5
6-Apr	49.0	49.3
13-Apr	49.0	49.2
20-Apr	49.83	47.71
27-Apr	50.28	48.14
4-May	49.46	48.36
11-May	49.00	47.59

Electoral Vote Prediction History

	With Toss Ups			Without Toss Ups
Date	Bush	Kerry	Toss	Bush	Kerry
9-Mar	133	189	216	247	291
16-Mar	199	86	253	338	200
23-Mar	184	110	244	338	200
30-Mar	194	110	234	335	203
6-Apr	198	182	158	278	260
13-Apr	198	199	141	299	239
20-Apr	243	195	100	328	210
27-Apr	205	178	155	321	217
4-May	192	178	168	283	255
11-May	182	108	248	290	248

The States
Margin of Lead
 (+Bush | -Kerry)
Battlegrounds in Green

Alabama	18.53
Alaska	30.42
Arizona	5.40
Arkansas	3.14
California	-5.59
Colorado	8.86
Connecticut	-18.54
Delaware	-12.39
District of Columbia	-76.88
Florida	2.54
Georgia	13.23
Hawaii	-18.71
Idaho	41.15
Illinois	-10.68
Indiana	15.71
Iowa	-2.85
Kansas	21.54
Kentucky	16.22
Louisiana	12.89
Maine	-5.33
Maryland	-7.99
Massachusetts	-23.32
Michigan	-4.99
Minnesota	-9.23
Mississippi	18.26
Missouri	3.40
Montana	25.32
Nebraska	29.63
Nevada	8.49
New Hampshire	-1.40
New Jersey	-5.87
New Mexico	0.17
New York	-17.59
North Carolina	8.86
North Dakota	28.91
Ohio	-0.18
Oklahoma	23.63
Oregon	-0.24
Pennsylvania	2.92
Rhode Island	-29.47
South Carolina	17.07
South Dakota	24.71
Tennessee	9.42
Texas	22.21
Utah	41.24
Vermont	-10.50
Virginia	5.16
Washington	-4.82
West Virginia	3.70
Wisconsin	0.05
Wyoming	41.68

[Darth Reagan]

ping

[The_Victor]

Thanks for the ping. Having CA hit the tossup column is hurting Kerry bigtime.

[Darth Reagan]

Looks like I've got a typo here: Bush leads the Composite Popular Vote 49.0% to 49.6%

It should conform to the graphic, which is correct. it's Bush 49.0-47.6.

[CasearianDaoist]

But Ohio leaning Dems is not very good news for us either.

[TomEwall]

Ohio's not leaning Dem. There hasn't been a poll there in over 2 months. The manufacturing job pick-up and overall improving job market should be helping Bush. The Gay Marriage issue also could help. If Bush keeps a 2 point or better national lead, he won't have to worry about Ohio, which he took by 4 points in 2000. Ohio would have to be out of kilter with the rest of the country by 6 points for that to happen.

[TomEwall]

The IBD poll was very accurate in 2000. It missed by 1 point the Gore-Bush race and Nader by 1 point. Only CBS News did better on the cumulative of these two. The IBD polls throughout this year have all looked reasonable. It's certainly more accurate and respectable than Rasmussen's, for example, which has been heavily skewed towards Kerry. IBD has not been showing any bias, as far as I'm aware of.

[CasearianDaoist]

Well on the basis of this survey it is in them Dem column.

[Darth Reagan]

You are right. I think Ohio really is a Bush lean. But I'm going to be a slave to numbers and let Dales make the gut checks and judgment calls.

If I rely on numbers, and as we get more, I think my analysis will line up with what our guts know. I hope.

[Darth Reagan]

I know that we can look at the last polls by each polling organization and determine how they did in 2000. But what were their polls like at other times? It could have been a statistical blip, or a good guess on how to determine likely voters and Dem v Rep turnout (see Zogby). I know that Rasmussen seemed off throughout 2000, but I didn't follow IBD that closely.

[CzarNicky]

Ohio is not going to Kerry.

[jmaroneps37]

If lurch is only + 1 in California there won't be much the ratmedia will be able to do to drag him into the White House.

[TomEwall]

I looked at TIPP as must as I could, and as far as I could tell it's an accurate poll. Looking at the last 15 polls shows Bush ahead by about 3. Whether you look at the last week, 2 weeks, or 4, you get about the same thing. So a poll showing Bush ahead by 5 is certainly not unreasonable. ARG shows Kerry ahead by 1. That's more "extreme" by far than TIPP, and ARG has a demonstrable bias. So does Rasmussen. TIPP doesn't.

[Darth Reagan]

Do you think Kerry +1 in California is right? I just have a hard time believing it.