Posted on 10/29/2004 12:15:33 AM PDT by West Coast Conservative
William Kristol
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry
Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)
House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)
Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota.
Stephen Hayes
Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush
Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush
Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)
House: 230 (R), 205 (D)
Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers beat Redskins 38-17.
Fred Barnes
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 306 Bush - 232 Kerry
Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)
House: 234 (R), 201 (D)
Dark horse: Dalton Tanonaka (R) upsets Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) in Hawaii.
Bonus dark horse: Referenda to ban same-sex marriage win in all 11 states.
Victorino Matus
Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 49% Kerry - 47% Bush
Electoral College: Kerry 285 - Bush 253
Senate: 49 (R), 50 (D), 1 (I)
House: 226 (R), 206 (D), 3 (I)
Dark horse: An upset is brewing in the Colorado Senate race--Pete Coors makes a comeback . . . and (t)wins!
Jonathan V. Last
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 54% Bush - 46% Kerry
Electoral College: 293 Bush - 245 Kerry
Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)
House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)
Dark horse: Alan Keyes fails to garner even 35% of the vote in Illinois, dooming the state Republican party for years. And despite losing the popular vote decisively, Kerry challenges the election based on results in a few key states.
Matt Labash
Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 49% Bush
Electoral College: 295 Kerry - 243 Bush
Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)
House: 234 (R) - 201 (D)
Dark horse: Barack Obama suffers devastating election-day backlash. Alan Keyes loses by a mere 47 points.
Terry Eastland
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry
Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)
House: 230 (R), 205 (D)
Dark horse: Kerry takes Florida and Pennsylvania, but the Midwest goes for Bush as values voters decide the election--at least on the initial count. Kerry goes to court in states where the margin of victory in each is less than 537 votes: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Chaos ensues as lawyers take over, but only Minnesota shifts to Kerry, making the final tally 286-252.
David Tell
Bush wins
Popular Vote: Bush 48.8% - Kerry 49.4%
Electoral College count known on 11/3/04: Bush 232 - Kerry 231
Electoral College on 1/20/05: Bush 270 - Kerry 267
Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)
House: 231 (R), 203 (D), 1 (I)
Dark horse: Some combination of (A) logistical difficulties produced by absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots; (B) statutorily required recounts; (C) partisan litigation; and (D) Hawaii's time zone will delay the final Electoral College count for at least a week. A "faithless elector" in West Virginia robs Bush of one vote to which he would otherwise be entitled. Democrats in Congress begin a major push to abolish the Electoral College. Defeated for reelection, former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota is no longer around to stop them.
Katherine Mangu-Ward
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry
Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush
Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)
House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies
Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign.
Richard Starr
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 49.9% Bush - 49.1% Kerry
Electoral College: 283 Bush - 255 Kerry
Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)
House: 228 (R) 206 (D)
Dark horse: Kerry calls off the lawyers and doesn't litigate the outcome.
David Skinner
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 271 Bush - 267 Kerry
Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)
House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)
Dark horse: In District 8 of Virginia, Jim Moran will lose. I've seen no polls on this, and Moran has had more money to spend than his challenger, Lisa Marie Cheney, an unknown whose only TV ad is mediocre. But here's the thing: Every local voter I know who has an opinion of Moran has a negative opinion of him.
Matthew Continetti
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: Bush 281 - Kerry 257.
Senate: 51 (R), 48 (D), 1 (I)
House: 233 (R), 202 (D)
Dark horse: Swift Boat Veteran for Truth John O'Neill emerges as frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination.
Rachel DiCarlo
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 48% Kerry
Electoral College: 298 Bush - 240 Kerry
Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)
House: 228 (R), 206 (D), 1 (I)
Dark horse: Thune pulls it off in South Dakota.
Michael Goldfarb
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 297 Bush - 241 Kerry
Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)
House: 235 (R), 200 (D)
Dark horse: Bush will win my home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
Duncan Currie
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 286 Bush -252 Kerry
Senate: 54 (R), 45 (D), 1 (I)
House: 229 (R), 207 (D), 1 (I)
Dark horse: John Thune takes down Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Oh, and whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).
| Election Predictions!!!! |
||
| Posted by swilhelm73 On News/Activism 10/28/2004 8:13:20 PM CDT · 90 replies · 2,530+ views Weekly Standard ^ | 10/28/04 | Various Election Predictions!!!! Kristol, Barnes, Last, Matus, Tell, Labash, and the rest go out on a limb for Bush, Kerry, and Congress. by Weekly Standard Staff 10/28/2004 3:00:00 PM Increase Font Size Printer-Friendly Email a Friend Respond to this article William Kristol Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D) House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I) Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota. ---------------------------------------- Stephen Hayes Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush Senate:... |
||
and oddly, I find myself agreeing with kristol.
Amazingly enough the Kerry win's group one could pick off as partison from their other predictions.
I like Terry Eastland's senate predictions! 543 Republicans in the senate to 46 Democrats! FINALLY WE CAN GET SOME JUDGES THROUGH!
Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry
Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush
Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)
House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies
I hope Ms Mangu-Ward's friends will help her to get professional help.
Bump to look at these election night...
The one that surprised me the most was Stephen F. Hayes, he was at the forefront of exposing the link between Iraq and al Qeada.
I was thinking the same thing. Every single one of her predictions was of something virtually certain not to happen... but you never know, Hillary just might be sworn in as veep by Chief Justice Breyer next month.
Yeah, right.
(that is, next year)
Bush by 3% at a minimum.
...Bill Kristols??? ...said that! He's w/ McStain isn't He?
I don't want that many Senators; we can't afford the ones we've got now - all they do is tighten the screws more every year.
Alan is a good guy, his being in the race has stopped his oponent from campaigning elsewhere as much.
I hope the debates were effective in him enriching the voters with his point of view.
I find Alan to be a bright, good and honorable man.
I agree with Kristol's prediction. However, just how many stories do the alphabet networks, WaPo and NYT have in the tank for this weekend? Can they make a difference? I don't know. They've clearly shown that they will be pulling out ALL the stops, no matter the cost.
He's doing well. Far better than most realize.
He's united the conservative base of the GOP, and is forcing many in the black community to think and talk about things that their Dem (mis)leaders haven't wanted them to think or talk about.
The good Doc never promised a win, but he did promise a fight, which he is delivering on.
I guarantee that Illinois will never be the same.
At some point after Tuesday, I'll give a full after action report about what has gone on in this race, and what the status of the party might be going forward.
Hey, if we could get some real conservatives and not compromised RINOS in the Senate, I'd be all for it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.