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WASHINGTON -- The New York Times latest statistical evaluation of U.S. Senate contests gives Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning the Louisiana seat now held by three-term Democrat Mary Landrieu. But it gives Democrats a 51 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate, a change from recent projections of a 54 percent Republican edge to capture the majority.

So, are the self-styled, armed militia now camping out on the Cliven Bundy cattle ranch domestic terrorists, as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says? Or are they “patriots,” as Nevada’s junior senator, Dean Heller, called them? They’re neither. First, when one thinks of domestic terrorists, one calls to mind Americans who have turned against their country and committed horrific acts of murder. Timothy McVeigh, who drove the truck bomb that destroyed the Oklahoma City federal building in 1995, for example. Or Unibomber Ted Kaczynski, who hand-delivered or sent bombs through the mail for nearly 20 years before being arrested in...

"PeakNation™ time to put the chocolate bunny down and get back to work. On a day when many across the country were celebrating a resurrection, well-known and well-respected prognosticator Stu Rothenberg stated one thing that won’t be resurrected come November is liberal Senator Mark Udall’s political career." Rothenberg on CNN. 12 second video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ylz5G_f-XIM

The GOP is making a bold play for a U.S. Senate seat in reliably Democratic Oregon, where a Republican hasn’t been elected to a statewide office in more than a decade. Republicans back in Washington think they’ve found the right candidate in Monica Wehby, a children’s brain surgeon who’s raised more than $1 million and put her early opposition to President Barack Obama’s health care law at the center of her campaign. […] Wehby faces four other Republicans, most notably state Rep. Jason Conger of Bend, a lawyer who’s promoting his conservative credentials and his experience representing a district that,...

Sarah Palin already announced her support for US Senate candidate Joni Ernst. Now Palin is joining her on the campaign trail. The former vice presidential candidate will stump for Ernst at a rally in West Des Moines as part of a ShePAC event that aims to support, honor and elect conservative women. The “Heels On, Gloves Off” event is set for April 27th. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds, Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska and former Nebraska Governor Kay Orr will also attend the event.

Really? With every Republican in the country set to run ObamaCare attack ads this fall, the Democratic Party’s going to double down in a perennially red state on the captain of the Healthcare.gov Titanic?There’s got to be a hidden motive in pushing a story this bananas to the media. But what? In her darkest hour last fall, Kathleen Sebelius suffered one of the deepest cuts from an old family friend who accused her of “gross incompetence” over the rollout of the Affordable Care Act and demanded that she resign as secretary of health and human services. Now she is weighing...

In Kansas, Milton Wolf is beginning to do what I suggested this morning he do — reach out to Kansas voters to show he is a credible alternative to Pat Roberts. Here is the first in his series of ad buys:

Let's image the GOP does gain the six seats necessary to win control of the Senate, and maybe even the few additional seats that Nate Silver thinks possible. Let's further imagine that it then sets out to do the right thing for real immigration reform. What then for immigration reform? Well, there's good news and bad news. The words "Senate Republican majority" conjure up an obvious and easy path to true immigration reform. Republicans, in control of the Senate will just vote for it, right?

A new Suffolk University poll of the Iowa GOP Senate primary shows state senator Joni Ernst narrowly leading wealthy business executive Mark Jacobs: In the smaller subset of June Republican Primary voters, State Sen. Joni Ernst, who has been tagged the “castration candidate” due to her TV ad that includes a matter-of-fact reference to growing up on an Iowa hog farm, is leading businessman Mark Jacobs 25 percent to 23 percent.

Congress has inflicted frightful punishments on its members--now you know that. When they tried Mr. Fairoaks, and a cloud of witnesses proved him to be--well, you know what they proved him to be--and his own testimony and his own confessions gave him the same character, what did Congress do then?....Congress intimated plainly enough, that they considered him almost a stain upon their body; and without waiting ten days, hardly, to think the thing over, they rose up and hurled at him a resolution declaring that they disapproved of his conduct! Now you know that. –Colonel Beriah Sellers, The Gilded Age,...

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., scheduled a Friday session that won't have any votes, rejecting Republican and Democratic requests that he allow a vote on a bill that would allow rape kits to be processed more quickly. “Debbie Smith is an extraordinary woman and an effective advocate," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told the Washington Examiner. "She's personally asked me, John Cornyn and others to pass this critically important legislation that bears her name, and it's deeply disappointing that the majority leader is blocking it from reaching the president's desk. I will fight to get this done for...

If you and me were running from a bear, I would stop and change my shoes Asked why, I say I don’t have to run faster than the bear, only faster than you. This is the issue for Handel: can she beat the triumvirate and make it to the runoff against Perdue? The three sitting Congressmen have very similar voting records: National Taxpayers Union ratings grouped between 80% and 85%, and Heritage Alliance scores of 93% to 94%, they are grouped better than an expert marksman’s bullseye. They also have war chests, and a sitting Congressman’s built-in advantage in access...

Put another way, Kathleen Sebelius has resigned and “Senior Administration Officials” are telling the media it is because of healthcare.gov. You do not have a celebration event last week to celebrate 7 million sign ups and have Sebelius there to get credit then this week throw her under the bus because of a screw up that happened last October. They have been standing with her since last October. They stood with her when the President’s polling was nosediving and throwing her under the bus could have stopped the bleeding. They are doing so now. Sebelius actually resigned last week and...

The worst-kept secret in midterm politics has finally passed its expiration date. Former US Senator Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts after Ted Kennedy’s death, will run against New Hampshire incumbent Jeanne Shaheen in November, assuming he wins the GOP primary in the Granite State. Brown officially opened his campaign with a blast against ObamaCare, which he said forces New Hampshire voters to “live free or log on� rather than operate under the state motto of “live free or die�:CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE VIDEO He accused Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen of being a rubber stamp for President Barack Obama, and...

You know, when we raise an issue, we’re too emotional,” Mikulski added. “Well, I am emotional.” “It brings tears to my eyes,” she exclaimed, “to know how women every, single day are working so hard and are getting paid less. It makes me emotional to hear that.” “I get angry, I get outraged, I get volcanic,” Mikulski asserted.

n recent years, the Republican Party has increasingly been described as a shrinking entity dominated by angry white males and southerners. But the problem for the Democrats is that Southern states will likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in this year's elections. Four of the seven seats listed as Senate "tossups" by the polling gurus at RealClearPolitics are in the South -- North Carolina, Louisiana, Kentucky and Arkansas. Republican wins in these four states would deliver the magic number required for the GOP to take majority control of the Senate. In North Carolina, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan is currently...

President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies in Congress are making a concerted election-year push to draw attention to women’s wages, linking Obama executive actions with pending Senate legislation aimed at closing a compensation gender gap that favors men. Obama on Tuesday planned to sign an executive order prohibiting federal contractors from retaliating against workers who discuss their pay. He also was to direct the Labor Department to issue new rules requiring federal contractors to provide compensation data that includes a breakdown by race and gender. The Democratic-controlled Senate this week planned to take up legislation that would make it...

The California Senate has erased the names and online archives of three suspended lawmakers entangled in criminal cases. The Senate removed pictures, video clips and legislative archives over the weekend involving Democratic Sens. Rod Wright of Los Angeles, Ron Calderon of Montebello and Leland Yee of San Francisco. All that remains on the websites is information about their Senate districts. The three men have lost the rights and privileges of a senator, which include having a Senate-maintained website, said Mark Hedlund, a spokesman for Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg.

"It's only 800 bucks to qualify," says Rep. Bill Cassidy, the leading Republican challenger to Louisiana incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, of his state's Senate race. "So if it's on your bucket list to run for Senate, you move to Louisiana, pay your 800 bucks and run for Senate." Even though a lot of reporting on the Louisiana Senate race -- including my own -- has focused on the head-to-head Landrieu-Cassidy matchup, there will be more GOP candidates than just Cassidy on the ballot this November. Their presence could affect the outcome of the race. Cassidy's main Republican opponent, retired...

One of the most important jobs of the media is to be the so-called “fourth estate” — an unofficial fourth branch of government that holds the three official branches accountable. Ideally, this would take place when reporters provide a look at reality when politicians lie, despite pressure from the same politicians to not report the truth. However, there is another way to hold a politician accountable: Stop taking the politician seriously by not reporting what he or she said. I propose that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has long passed the point of “unseriousness” to “harmful to society,” and...

Friday morning, Sen. Thad Cochran's (R-MS) campaign sent out a press release criticizing his GOP primary challenger, state senator Chris McDaniel, for planning to attend a major Tea Party rally this weekend. "This Saturday, Kentucky will focus on the Final Four in Texas, Thad Cochran's campaign will focus on Mississippi...and Chris McDaniel will focus on...Kentucky?" the release began. "I love how Orwellian they get," FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe told Breitbart News as part of an exclusive interview. Kibbe's group is hosting the event, titled "Free PAC Kentucky," which will feature remarks by Glenn Beck and is taking place Senate Majority...

Maness Announces Best Fundraising Quarter Yet"Nearly all of the contributions we've collected are low-dollar donations when compared to the high-dollar contributions that my establishment opponents routinely collect from K Street lobbyists and other special-interests in Washington D.C.," Maness said. He added that within the overall explosion of individual donors, his support from Louisiana donors is outpacing the total growth of his donor list. He said that the value of his contributions will become evident in more ways than in the mere sum of dollars raised.

Ed and Allahpundit have already covered Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s most recent bouts of furiously unhinged, untenable anti-Koch showboating — both on the Senate floor and on the official Senate interwebz — but here’s a quick addendum for you. In case you were wondering whether Reid’s especially apparent inanity of late has any significant portion of Senate Democrats thinking about whether they maybe want to start considering a different, perhaps slightly more coherent leader after the midterms — that would be a “no.� Via Politico: A wide cross section of the Senate Democratic Caucus said in interviews that they...

Nearly a year after the Senate rejected an effort to expand background checks for gun buyers, top Senate Democrats said Thursday that they still lack the votes to successfully revisit the issue. A day after the latest shootings in Fort Hood in Texas, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., told reporters, “I would like to be able to bring it back up, but I need some more votes.” …

Sarah Palin forcefully defended the only woman fighting for the Republican nomination for Georgia's open Senate seat and hit back Thursday against a rival's apparent dismissal of Karen Handel's high school education. David Perdue, the former Dollar General CEO, said that "there's a high school graduate in this race, OK? I'm sorry but these issues are so much broader, so complex" as he talked about the economy and the federal deficit during a January meeting captured on video....

CHICAGO - On a politically focused trip aimed at revving up his base and raising cash, President Barack Obama on Wednesday urged supporters to help Democrats keep control of the U.S. Senate and declared this year to be his last campaign. Buoyed by good news over his signature healthcare program, Obama touted proposals to raise the minimum wage and spur job creation that have little chance of passage in Congress during a rally with students in Michigan. Later at a fundraiser in Chicago he underscored Democratic worries about their political vulnerabilities in the Senate and House of Representatives in November...

Braley camp: He knew he was being recorded when he disparaged Iowa farmers and Grassley POSTED AT 9:21 AM ON APRIL 1, 2014 BY GUY BENSON Many of us assumed this recording was made surreptitiously. It must have been. There’s no way a statewide office-seeker from Iowa would knowingly demean farmers and a beloved state political figure on tape, right? Wrong, says the Braley campaign, via the Des Moines Register: Braley’s campaign strategists say the candidate knew he was being videotaped at the private fundraiser when he made the remark that has the political world buzzing, describing Chuck Grassley as...

by Brian Hayes | Top Right News Senator Bob Menendez introduced a resolution to honor "Cesar Chavez' legacy." But hilarity ensued when Republicans tried to tell the truth about Chavez' real position against illegal immigration. With the late-labor icon Cesar Chavez in the news because of the release of the film bearing his name, plus his March 31 birthday, many advocates for illegal alien amnesty are using Chavez' memory to promote their cause. One such advocate, New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez, introduced a resolution calling for the Senate to honor and promote his legacy. But the resolution was objected to by...

President Barack Obama on Monday threw his support to Sen. Brian Schatz over Colleen Hanabusa in Hawaii’s Senate race, stepping into a primary that has been divisive for voters in the state where Obama was born. Obama’s backing could give a critical boost to Schatz in Hawaii, where Obama remains more popular than in most other parts of the U.S. Seven in 10 Hawaii voters chose Obama in 2012. Polls this year show Schatz and Hanabusa are in a competitive race. “Sen. Schatz is protecting Hawaii’s values and fighting every day on behalf of middle-class families,” Obama said in a...

U.S. Senator Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), along with U.S. Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), U.S. Senator Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) and 10 of their Senate colleagues, introduced the Gun-Owner Registration Information Protect (GRIP) Act. The legislation would prohibit federal funding from being used to support a gun registry maintained by any other organization, including state and local governments. “The U.S. Constitution guarantees the ‘right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed,’ but a national firearm database would threaten that fundamental right,” Sen. Moran said. “The GRIP Act makes certain Kansans’ freedoms are not infringed upon simply because they...

It’s the morning after. You stayed up late watching election results on TV. By the time you went to bed, the Republicans had won five of the six Senate seats they needed to take control of both houses of Congress. As the networks called each state for the GOP, it felt like a trap door had opened beneath your feet, like a Munch scream, like a nightmare — a nauseating, slow-motion wreck you were powerless to prevent. Too rattled to sleep, you reached for the melatonin. Then, when you wake up in a sweat, the real nightmare begins. Republicans are...

All 25 'no' votes in the House and Senate were from Republicans. House: ---- NAYS 23 ---http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2014/roll114.xml Amash Bentivolio Broun (GA) Campbell DesJarlais Duncan (TN) Gohmert Graves (GA) Graves (MO) Griffin (AR) Kingston Massie McAllister Mulvaney Rice (SC) Rohrabacher Rooney Sanford Stockman Weber (TX) Westmoreland Yoho Young (AK) Senate: ---- NAYS 2 --- Heller (NV) Paul (KY)

...The risk of the Ernst ad is that it may cause people not to take her seriously. While Iowa is one of the top agricultural states in America, 64 percent of residents live in urban communities. The question that deserves to be asked is, how does this ad play with urban women? From the ones I talked to on Tuesday, it didn't set very well. "It reminds me a little of the 'I'm not a witch,' ad," one woman told TheIowaRepublican.com. "I think you could tell that story in a speech, but I would never use the word castrate in...

Sarah Palin, who announced a number of midterm endorsements recently, signaled a spring awakening for fellow mamma grizzlies this week, throwing her support behind three female House and Senate candidates on Thursday after backing Iowa’s Joni Ernst the day before. The latest Republican recipients of the Tea Party star’s coveted imprimatur are Florida Senate Majority Leader Lizbeth Benacquisto, who’s running in her state’s 19th Congressional District; and former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel and Minnesota state Sen. Julianne Ortman, both of whom are U.S. Senate candidates. All three endorsements were announced on the former Alaska governor’s Facebook page, and...

The race for Virginia Democrat Mark Warner’s Senate seat isn’t nearly as competitive as those for some of his purple-to-redder-state colleagues currently in hot water, and according to a Quinnipiac poll released today, Warner holds a solid 15-point lead over likely Republican challenger Ed Gillespie — but I think it’s safe to say that his lead isn’t because Virginia voters just adore ObamaCare: Warner is favored by 46 percent of voters as he seeks a second term, compared with 31 percent for Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, according to the Quinnipiac University survey. Libertarian Robert Sarvis...

Virginia, considered a swing state, is swinging blue for U.S. Sen. Mark Warner in his reelection drive this year and for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton if she runs for the White House in 2016, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Warner tops former White House aide Ed Gillespie, a possible Republican challenger, 46 - 31 percent, with 6 percent for Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Virginia voters say 49 - 36 percent that Warner deserves reelection. They approve 55 - 33 percent of the job he is doing and...

One day after her “Squeal” TV brought her national attention, Joni Ernst picks up the endorsement of Sarah Palin. The former Alaska governor, 2008 vice-presidential nominee and conservative firebrand calls Ernst a “champion for life, small government, and lower taxes.” Here is what Palin had to say when announcing her support for Joni Ernst in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race: “If Nebraska’s Deb Fischer can see through the bull in Washington, then Iowa’s Joni Ernst can help her cut through the pork. Growing up on a hog farm in Southwest Iowa, Joni has taken her “pork cutting” skills to the Iowa...

House Speaker John Boehner’s office fired back at Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, saying comments he made blaming Republicans for the situation in Ukraine make him sound “completely unhinged.” “The Senate Majority Leader sounds completely unhinged,” Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said in an email Tuesday. “The House has acted, and is continuing to act, in a reasonable and responsible way to give the White House the tools it needs to hold President [Vladimir] Putin accountable.”

In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican challenger Jim Oberweis is getting shunned by two top Republicans - one local, one national. Dick Durbin is such a favorite for reelection that Republican Senator Mark Kirk says he’s not even planning to campaign with fellow Republican Oberweis. “I’m going to be protecting my relationship with Dick and not launching into a partisan jihad that hurts our partnership [in which we] both pull together for Illinois.” And at his side at an unrelated news conference was Republican Senate Minority Whip John Cornyn of Texas, in town for a fundraiser, who took a...

While the nation’s (and news media’s) focus on Malaysian Airlines flight 370 gave Democrats a couple of weeks to catch their collective breath, the 2014 election cycle continues to look increasingly dangerous for President Barack Obama and his party. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal (March 5-9) and CBS News/New York Times (Feb. 19-23) surveys contained little in the way of good news for Democrats — and recent GOP Senate recruiting successes in Colorado and New Hampshire put two more Senate contests into play. Strategists in both parties agree that Democratic enthusiasm isn’t where it needs to be, especially...

Democrats aren't taking Nate Silver's latest Senate prediction lying down. In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction—made a day earlier—that Republicans were a "slight favorite" to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014. "In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecast a 61 percent likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority," Cecil said. "Three months later, Democrats went on to win 55 seats."...

When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast—way back in July—we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber. Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before....

If Republicans win control of the Senate in November, they could owe their victory to a bunch of computer geeks and data nerds holed up in two offices 2,800 miles apart. The Republicans need to flip six seats to wrest the Senate majority from the Democrats on a playing field that is expanding in the GOP's favor. Up to a dozen Democratic-held seats could be up for grabs -- more than half of them in red states -- as voters continue to sour on President Obama's leadership, health care law and stewardship of the economy. Only two Republican seats threaten...

A supporter of a bill to protect reporters and the news media from having to reveal confidential sources said Friday the measure has the backing of the Obama administration and the support of enough senators to move ahead this year. Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the No. 3 Democrat in the Senate, spoke optimistically about prospects for the measure, identifying five Republicans who would join with Democrats and independents on a bill that he said would address a constitutional oversight. While the first amendment protects freedom of the press, “there is no first amendment right for gathering information,” Schumer...

Tom Coburn leaves large conservative shoes to fill as he retires from the U.S. Senate. At 6’5 feet tall, T.W. Shannon is just the leader to fill them. T.W. is the underdog in his race, but that’s not a position he’s unfamiliar with. He’s had to beat the odds all of his life. He became the first Republican to ever win his district’s seat in the Oklahoma state legislature even though the naysayers said it couldn't be done. When he sought to be Speaker of the House, the naysayers said he was too young and too conservative to win....

When will some Democrats who describe themselves as “pro-gun” realize that they aren't fooling anyone? Here's their latest deception. President Obama’s nomination of Dr. Vivek Murthy to be surgeon general is in trouble, because the National Rifle Association decided that it was going to “score” the vote – that is, let its members know which senators voted for someone they believe is a threat to people being able to own guns for self-defense.

Eighty-three senators banded together today to demand that President Obama meet core principles, including clear consequences, in any final nuclear agreement with Iran. The letter was spearheaded by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.). The sheer number of senators on board serves as a warning call to the administration that they have the support to override a presidential veto on tougher Iran sanctions. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who held up a sanctions vote at the request of the White House, was not among the signatories....

There’s an old story about a freshman member of the House who is getting shown around by a senior member on his first day, and the freshman asks about the other party. “I want to meet the enemy,” he says. “No, son,” says the old bull, “they’re the opposition. The Senate is the enemy.” I thought about that today as the prospect of a Republican takeover of the Senate becomes more of a possibility. If the GOP controlled both houses, would Republicans be able to present a united front against President Obama, one that might actually accomplish any practical goals?...

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) has been near the top of the list of the most vulnerable senators facing reelection since day one of the 2014 election cycle. But notable developments in recent weeks suggest her seat is increasingly at risk of falling into Republican hands. Republican groups have blitzed Landrieu over the airwaves while she has gotten limited cover from Democratic allies; polls show she is locked in a close race against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R); and now, Landrieu is reserving $2.6 million in airtime between April and June, an apparent recognition that the cascade of opposition ads has forced...

Via Mark Hemingway.  Won’t these guys ever learn? This brings us to the May 13 primary for the open Senate seat in Nebraska, where the NRSC’s meddling is particularly hard to justify. The two top Republicans are Ben Sasse and Shane Osborn. Both men are impressive. Sasse is a fifth-generation Nebraskan and Yale Ph.D. He worked for Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey & Company, specializing in crisis management and turnaround projects. Just after 9/11, he worked in the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Policy. Later in the Bush administration, Sasse was an assistant secretary of Health and Human Services, where he...