Posted on 09/28/2004 12:27:08 PM PDT by AZLiberty
The most scientifically credible earthquake prediction for California in years has just a few days left for fulfillment - or bust.
The forecast, made by an international team of scientists including a UCLA seismologist, is that a quake of magnitude 6.4 or larger will strike within a 12,000-square-mile region of Southern California before Monday.
A state panel of earthquake experts who reviewed the prediction says the approach is legitimate but too untested to warrant emergency action.
Another difficulty with taking action, they said, is that the region in question is too big. Reaching from the Mojave Desert in San Bernardino County to the Mexican border, it includes urban Palm Springs and miles upon miles of sparsely populated desert. "It's like saying, somewhere in the Western world, it's going to rain tomorrow. What do you do with that?" said Rich Eisner, an earthquake program manager at the state Office of Emergency Services.
While the prediction hasn't prompted any special precautions by the state, it has generated a buzz in earth-science circles and has gone a long way toward restoring respectability to the shaky business of quake forecasting.
[SNIP]
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
But Parkfield was 6.0
I believe the prediction was for Sept 7th. I remember reading something about the prediction bust on that day.
And the sad part is they know alot more about modelling earthquakes than they do global warming.
{"Missed it by that much.")
Strong Earthquake Strikes Central Calif.
September 28, 2004, 12:16 PM PDT, Associated Press
PARKFIELD, Calif. - A strong earthquake struck Central California on Tuesday that was felt from San Francisco to the Los Angeles area. There were no immediate reports of injuries.
The quake, which struck at 10:15 a.m. PDT, had a preliminary magnitude of 6.0 and was centered 7 miles southeast of Parkfield, the town known as California's earthquake capital, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (news - web sites). The area is 21 miles northeast of Paso Robles, scene of an earthquake that killed two people in December.
"I had stuff everywhere... lamps and pictures and stuff on the floor," said Willa Sell, 77, who lives on a ranch outside Parkfield. "I was happy when it was over. It was a real shaker."
A series of aftershocks quickly rattled the area, one with a preliminary 5.0 magnitude four minutes after the main earthquake and three others 4.1 or above.
A little more than an hour after the main earthquake, a spokesman for the state Office of Emergency Services said the office hadn't received any reports of injury or damage.
"The aftershocks are tracking toward the northwest, which is good, according to the scientists, because it appears it is not a precursor to something larger," said Eric Lamoureaux, an emergency services spokesman.
The quake was felt along a 350-mile stretch, as far north as San Francisco and as far south as Santa Ana, southeast of Los Angeles, the geological survey said. The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department reported receiving several calls.
Parkfield, population 37, is located on the San Andreas fault and it has experienced six similar, magnitude 6.0 earthquakes with apparent regularity — one approximately every 22 years.
The USGS (news - web sites) even named its major long-term earthquake research project the Parkfield Experiment.
"This is earthquake country. It's a larger earthquake than what usually occurs, but it's not unprecedented," said USGS spokeswoman Stephanie Hanna. "We expect big earthquakes in this area, but don't know when they'll occur."
The Dec. 22, 2003, earthquake collapsed old downtown buildings in Paso Robles, pitching an 1892 clock tower building onto the street and crushing a row of parked cars. Two people were killed in the state's first fatal quake since the 6.7-magnitude temblor that hit the Northridge area of Los Angeles in 1994.
Since December, many residents of the area have taken precautions to protect their property and valuables from the next inevitable temblor.
"I respect them, let's put it that way," Mary Vanderwert, 57, said by telephone Tuesday from her Paso Robles home. She experienced Tuesday's quake as a series of ripples and vibrations. "It just tickled your feet and then all of a sudden it's jerking and then the whips started."
The USGS estimate of magnitude was strengthened from 5.8, or "moderate," to 6.0, the threshold for a "strong" earthquake. Preliminary magnitudes are determined by seismographs across the planet, and often change as scientists pinpoint where the epicenter is and interpret the data.
A magnitude 5 quake can cause considerable damage and a magnitude 6 quake severe damage, though problems are generally far less severe in remote areas and areas with strong building codes.
"We have good architecture and good building codes in California," Hanna said.
(Rewrites throughout to UPDATE with magnitude now put at 6.0, minimum reading for 'strong' category, add further quotes; correct spelling of Vanderwert, sted Vaderwert, in penultimate graf pvs.)
And the Parkfield quake today was WELL outside Borok's prediction area, besides not being big enough.
Reminds me of the Millerites who said the Earth would be destroyed on October 23, 1844. They all got on top of a hill so they could watch the great event. They were disappointed that day.
Just wait 'till November 2nd. Big quake coming that day!
In the first place, a 6.4 is NOT a major earthquake. It is a moderate earthquake. Such earthquakes are hardly rare. Indeed, one close to that number happened today elsewhere in CA.
Here's my prediction:
I predict that several earthquakes in the magnitude range between 5.0 and 7.0 will strike somewhnere in the world in the next week. I guarantee this will occur.
How's that. But...wait...such quakes occur EVERY WEEK! Never mind.
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