Free Republic

Between the new congressional district lines and the new open primaries, people who hold elected office in California are running for their lives. In previous years, maybe 10 percent of congressional and legislative districts were competitive. Now everybody thinks they're at risk. Even well-known incumbents in Democrat-dominated districts - people like Reps. Barbara Lee and John Garamendi - fear they might get beat. As a result, they are scooping up and holding onto as much campaign cash as possible. It's all putting a pinch on Rep. Nancy Pelosi's hopes of the Democrats retaking the House. You see, in the past...

People are criticizing President Obama for his endless fundraising. They are wrong. He's got to do that if he's going to win. And it's not just big donors he needs. He's got to get $10 checks from maids and chauffeurs and gardeners and everybody else in the world, like he did the first time around.This is going to be a billion-dollar campaign, and Obama is going to be outspent no matter what he does - by an order of 2 to 1, at least.Somewhere along the line, however, the Republicans are going to figure out they're not going to beat...

Here's a primary prediction: Despite being seriously outspent by big tobacco, the Proposition 29 people get a last-minute infusion of campaign cash and squeak out a win for their measure tacking another $1-per-pack tax onto cigarettes. No sooner does the new tax go into effect, my street contacts tell me, than Indian tribes will open tobacco shops at their casinos, where buyers can escape state taxes and buy cigarettes on the cheap.Just as quickly, smugglers will start rolling in truckloads of smokes from Nevada, Arizona and Oregon, as street dealers realize there is more money to be made selling hot...

It looks like Gov. Jerry Brown will not get his wish, and his tax plan will not be the only one on the November ballot. Multimillionaire Molly Munger, with her income-tax increase for education, and the California Federation of Teachers, with its millionaires tax, show no signs of backing down. Unlike the governor, who fears that multiple measures will amount to a circular firing squad, I say choice is healthy. Let's be honest - all the tax plans are set up to pay for the interests of their backers. Munger and the teachers are all about money going to education....

. . . With the Republican caucuses in Iowa just around the corner, President Obama must be one of the most disappointed politicians in the country. Never has a candidate enjoyed and benefited so immensely from such a long, entertaining and well-publicized catfight among his potential rivals. On behalf of the president, I say keep it up Mitt, Newt, Michele, Rick and the rest of the cast and crew of the anybody-but-Obama show. You all deserve Emmy Awards for the best reality show of the season.

If the Occupy people really want to make a point about the 1 percent, then lay off Oakland and go for the real money down in Silicon Valley. The folks who work on the docks in Oakland or drive the trucks in and out of the port are all part of the 99 percent. They take our goods from all over the state and export them. The only thing those cats down at Apple are exporting are our jobs. Then they have the nerve to ask for tax breaks, and Washington obliges. Shutting down the port may look good on...

Gov. Jerry Brown is doing well in the polls right now, but he's got a problem in the works that could really take him down. Check in with legislative analysts - the state is on track to run out of money by Thanksgiving. It turns out that the budget Brown signed had revenue projections that were ... well, I won't call them phony, but let's just say they've turned out to be several billion dollars short of accurate. Plus, the courts stopped him from pulling in the money he was hoping to raise from redevelopment agencies across the state. In...

Former Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, who held the reins of power in the 1980s and '90s, was back at the Capitol this week to second the governor's idea that public pensions need to be cut to control costs. The Democratic icon told reporters he wasn't close enough to the action now to issue advice to Democrats sparring with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and other Republicans over the state budget. But come to think of it, Brown figures Democrats may have missed a move. Back in May, the governor proposed budget cuts that many Democrats and health advocates instantly denounced as draconian....

It looks like it's going to be eMeg versus Moonbeam for governor of California, and the whole world will be watching.For Meg Whitman, this is not just a race for governor. This is a race to the top of the Republican food chain and for consideration to be Mitt Romney's running mate in 2o12.For Jerry Brown, it's the ultimate redemption for old-time politicians, for those opposed to term limits and for those who believe that experience counts.I think Jerry started out with the idea that becoming governor again would launch him on another run for the White House, but Barack...

I got a call from Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry the other day. From the sound of things, the Senate clearly intends to take its holiday break Wednesday, no matter what. If so, President Obama is going have a tough time making his Christmas deadline for a health care reform bill to win Senate approval. At this point, it looks like the biggest winners when a bill finally does pass are going to be the insurance companies. They'll be getting millions of new customers - at government expense.

Here's an economic indicator you won't see on the business pages - the big parties are back.After a year when being ostentatious was out, bling is back in and the big names are busting out the tents and big-budget bashes for the holiday season.Gordon Getty pulled the plug last year on his annual combination birthday and Christmas party. This year, it's on.Dede Wilsey is readying the retractable roof of her home for her annual winter wonderland, and Ron Cowan has booked Teatro ZinZanni for a holiday party. In fact, there appears to be a solid month of parties ahead of...

What a week it's been in California politics, with insiders and oddsmakers having a field day. But beware. Things may not be as they seem. First up, you'd better keep Dianne Feinstein's name on the list of possible candidates for governor. I've known Dianne for years, and the role of chief executive is a much better fit for her than being one of 100 senators. I can also tell you from the meetings I have had with her that she is very serious about California's budget troubles, water troubles and other troubles. She is also serious when she says that...

A political earthquake is rumbling in the Central Valley over water, and it could cause a real tsunami for the Democrats in the 2010 elections if they don't handle it well.That's the message I'm getting from my Blue Dog Democrat friends in farm country.Rep. Jim Costa, D-Hanford (Kings County), told me unemployment in his district is running at 35 to 45 percent. The once-fruitful federal farm subsides are drying up and so is the water, with people blaming the Democrats on both counts.The perception is that folks like Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez, and environmental activists are orchestrating a policy out...

That proposed ballot initiative to legalize marijuana in California for people 21 and older - and let local government tax the sales - has a good chance of passing. People are no longer outraged by the idea of legalization, and truth be told, there is just too much money to be made both by the people who grow marijuana and the cities and counties that would be able to tax it. Unlike the 1970s, when Mayor George Moscone first moved to decriminalize pot, marijuana is no longer about hippies. Thanks to medical marijuana, pot has moved from the alleyways to...

Edward Kennedy was a rare political combination of talent and privilege. The talent was the ability to connect with people one-on-one in an instant, an indispensable attribute in this business. Like all great politicians, Edward was not only conversant with every issue, he also knew how to open a conversation in a very personal way. Once we ran into each other after I had visited the site of China's historic Terracotta soldiers. He'd seen a photo of me there in the news. "What were you doing with a bunch of dead people?" he asked. He might talk to you about...

Just got back from Washington, where I emceed the swearing-in of Rosie Rios as the new U.S. treasurer. Rosie was part of my mayoral team, and we've been close ever since. My job was to introduce both her and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Geithner was incredibly restrained although very generous with his time, letting everyone take their picture with him. All I asked in return for my duties was a tour of the Treasury and a few minutes to be left alone so I could pick up my own personal stimulus package. No such luck. Washington itself was pretty much...

Keep an eye on former state controller and multimillionaire Steve Westly - I think he might run for governor again. Westly spent a lot of money running in 2006 only to lose the Democratic primary to Phil Angelides. I have got to believe that Westly, and maybe some other Democrats, are not going to allow the primary to just be a two-way race between San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Jerry Brown. The feeling out there is that Brown probably caps out at 35 to 40 percent with voters while Newsom has yet to break 20 percent. So...

It's a basic tenet of politics: When you get into a pissing contest with a skunk, you wind up smelling as bad as the skunk. Arnold Schwarzenegger forgot that lesson during this last budget fight. His polling numbers are almost as low as those of the Legislature. Unlike his past setbacks, when he was able to rebuild his image with newfound money, this time the economy is working against him. And from the looks of things, so is everyone else in Sacramento. I suspect his final cuts to children's health care and AIDS programs were made more out of anger...

The budget mess in Sacramento was inevitable: Term limits, gerrymandered safe districts and officials' willingness to expand programs or cut taxes with no regard for the consequences have all played a role in the $26.3 billion deficit. But perhaps the biggest problem is the willingness of our elected leaders, from the governor on down, to cook the books to get their way. Whether it's education, prisons or tax cuts, you need to start being honest about the numbers. The problem is, no one wants to say what this program increase is really going to cost, or how much money this...

When I was speaker, they called me the Ayatollah of the Assembly. Well, I have some pointers for my counterpart in Iran.One, never call an election until at least 90 percent of the vote is counted. At the very least, you should wait until people stop voting before declaring someone the winner.Two, when you do issue the final count, try your best not to report more ballots cast than voters. The first results I saw out of Iran had over 100 percent of the folks voting.And three, if you're going to try something funny, at least make it close so...