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The Kremlin denies it, but right now, it only looks like a matter of time. Russia wants to keep the nuclear power facility in Zaporizhzhia for its own energy needs as well as nuclear hostage in its failing war in Ukraine. The question is whether they can hold it, and for how long. As the New York Times points out, the fallback from Kherson hasn’t bolstered their forces in Zaporizhzhia enough to sustain its seizure in the long run: Following a string of Ukrainian military successes in the south, the Kremlin sought on Monday to tamp down speculation that Russian...

CNN highlighted this video yesterday which comes from a Ukrainian journalist. They haven’t independently confirmed the contents but the video appears to shows Russian soldiers who are near the front lines complaining about the complete lack of supplies and training. “The sent us here without any training, without anything at all,” the soldier said. He added, “We don’t have any training or supplies and our guys showed up in their own uniforms paid for with their own money.” A second soldier said, “We have no weapons, no ammo bags, no grenades, no belt pouches, no food, no water. It’s absolute...

We all know how this has played out. This summer Russia started monkeying with the natural gas supply to Germany and the rest of Europe, claiming there was some technical problem that required maintenance. Then they cut the gas off completely and not long after that someone blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. The result of all this has been a huge spike in energy prices in Europe and concern that there might not be enough gas to heat homes this winter.But here we are in late October and the situation is looking very different. For one thing, Europe has...

A report published yesterday which documents the routine use of torture in Izium, a small city in eastern Ukraine which was recently recaptured after months of Russian occupation. The Associated Press sent reporters to the city and spoke with residents who identified 10 locations which had been used by Russians to torture both Ukrainian military personnel and civilians.(snip)Russian torture in Izium was arbitrary, widespread and absolutely routine for both civilians and soldiers throughout the city, an Associated Press investigation has found.(snip) Based on accounts of survivors and police, AP journalists located 10 torture sites in the town and gained access...

How well have the people of the four annexed territories in Ukraine embraced their new overlords in Moscow? Vladimir Putin offered some insight into that question today by declaring martial law in all four areas, starting tomorrow. The Duma followed up his declaration with legislation that will silence any dissent and criminalize any travel and public gatherings not expressly approved by military commanders. It’s “liberation, Kremlin style,” comrade!(snip) The glorious war progresses smoothly, tovarisch. Don’t forget that Putin’s argument for annexation was that these areas rightly belonged to Russia in the first place. If that’s the case, why do these...

Even the solutions turn into problems for Vladimir Putin in Ukraine — big problems. Less than a month after announcing a “partial” mobilization, Russian conscripts have entered into combat in Luhansk. And it appears that they are exiting almost as quickly, provoking even more backlash from nationalist milbloggers who are increasingly balking at Putin’s propaganda. The Ukrainians reported their arrival in combat areas yesterday. Serhii Haidai, the top military official in Luhansk Oblast, claimed that the first conscript wave consisted mainly of ex-convicts: (snip) The Russian milbloggers didn’t take long to confirm the arrival of conscripts — and to complain...

Despite all of his public bluster, is it possible that Vladimir Putin is getting just a bit desperate in his bid to find some sort of path to something he could call a “victory” in Ukraine? One hint could be found in the fact that he twisted Lukashenko’s arm to pull Belarus into the fighting at this late stage of the game. But another indicator of Russia’s military reaching the bottom of the barrel popped up this week. Yesterday, Tyler Rogoway from The War Zone sent out this alert on social media. It seems that Russia is “modernizing” some of...

I read Jazz Shaw’s story this morning about Jeffrey Sachs saying it’s likely the US blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. That’s the line being taken by Tucker Carlson as well. And while I agree there’s no definitive proof either way, at least not anything that has been declassified yet, I think it’s still probable that Russia is responsible.Russia had already cut off the supply of gas through Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 was never operational. So there was no real change in the amount of gas going through the pipeline (or the revenue it produced) before or...

A sense of unreality continues to permeate Russia and their claims to annexation of southern Ukraine, and that may be almost literally. Newsweek reports today that the Kremlin added “fake cheers” to Vladimir Putin’s speech on Friday announcing the annexation to sell this glorious nonsense to a Russian audience that has clearly grown tired of the war. And speaking of the audience … Unedited footage from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation speech in Moscow on Friday appears to show fake cheers were edited onto clips broadcast on state TV, while reports say that people were bussed in to attend the...

And can Vladimir Putin survive without them? The Kremlin has relied on manipulated narratives of Russian success in Ukraine — as well as outrageous propaganda against Ukrainians and the West — sourced mainly through milbloggers and nationalist front-line reporters. Those have fed Putin’s state-run media since the start of the war, especially after Putin outlawed any true independent reporting in February. Now that Russian troops are running from Kharkiv and getting overrun in key strategic locations like Lyman and Kherson, the milbloggers have turned on their masters. ISW reports today that “dramatic changes in the Russian information space” took place...

As Ed pointed out yesterday, there were indications from Danish and Swedish authorities that the leaks from the Nord Stream pipelines were the result of explosions, i.e. deliberate sabotage not accidents. All eyes immediately turned to Russia who has been playing games with gas deliveries through the pipelines for months. The NY Times created this graph showing the gas supply over time. As you can see, it took a sudden dip in June and then was up and down until this month when they shut it off indefinitely. (snip) Still, with the gas already cut off, why bother sabotaging the...

The NY Times published this report today. The intercepts in question aren’t recent but come from back in March (snip) Still, the content of the calls reveal just how quickly the Russian offensive fell apart. A soldier named Sergey told his mother, “No one told us we were going to war. They told us the day before we left.” Another soldier told his partner, “I didn’t know this was going to happen. They said we were going for training. These bastards didn’t tell us anything.” The soldier’s take on the attempt to take Kyiv was just as blunt. “We can’t...

You see, this is why I prefer Catholicism. All we need is confession. Russia’s establishment has grown desperate enough in Ukraine to reach for the martyrdom argument. Patriarch Kirill, a Vladimir Putin crony, declared that Russian men who die for “Holy Russia” by participating in its genocide in Ukraine will have their sins “washed away”: (snip) If that sounds positively medieval, it is, literally. It’s the same indulgence granted during the Crusades. This is the kind of martyrdom teachings one no longer finds in Christianity but still find in radical forms of Islam and extremist political ideologies. In those ideologies,...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is promising three protections to Russian soldiers who willingly surrender. Zelensky’s offer comes as Vladimir Putin announced plans to call up 300,000 reservists to replenish the troops who have died in battle. Zelensky delivered his offer directly to Russians as he made his nightly video address.Zelensky addressed them in Russian. He said every Russian soldier who surrenders is guaranteed three protections.1. You will be treated in a civilised manner, in accordance with all conventions; 2. No one will know the circumstances of your surrender, no one in Russia will know that your surrender was voluntary; 3....

It’s Election Day in parts of Ukraine — but only because Russia imposed it. Vladimir Putin ordered referenda on annexation held in the parts of the Donbas that Russia still controls — and some areas it no longer does — in order to justify the seizure of those areas. That seizure will allow Putin to claim that any further Ukrainian advances in those areas are an invasion of Russia, which will unlock his ability to order full mobilization … and potentially other options.We’ll get to the full-mobilization issue in a moment, but let’s stick to the referenda first. Ukrainian authorities...