The kernel of the long-awaited “victory plan” for Ukraine that President Volodymyr Zelensky introduced this fall goes something like this: If you give me what I’ve been asking for — membership in NATO and permission to fire Western missiles deep into Russian territory — I could end the war by next year. The demands are not in themselves new. The urgency is in the timing: The American election, and what President Biden does before he leaves office, will have serious consequences for the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war. Actual membership in NATO is not in the cards for Ukraine until...