Free Republic

A San Francisco venture capitalist who was once dubbed 'Silicon Valley's Party Animal' has been convicted of fraud totalling $19 million - and now faces up to 60 years in prison. Michael Brent Rothenberg, who was raised in a Jehovah's Witness family in Georgetown, Texas, used his dense network of successful Ivy League friends to set up his own VC fund in 2012 based on the strategy of throwing opulent parties. He rubbed shoulders with Mark Zuckerberg, rented out baseball stadiums for networking events, and threw all-day-and-night parties in a bid to attract investors and companies to invest in. This...

In recent days, America has produced an astounding spectacle. Americans desecrated and demanded removal of their own statues to their own heroes, including African Americans who fought for the Union; Hans Christian Heg, a Norwegian immigrant and dedicated abolitionist who modeled courage and gave his life in the Civil War; Taduesz Kosciuszko, the Polish-born designer of West Point who left money in his will to purchase freedom for American slaves; the World War II Memorial to the men and women who actually did fight fascism; and the Emancipation Memorial, a monument paid for by freed slaves, dedicated in a speech...

Longtime liberal pollster Stuart Rothenberg apparently had a hard time handling President Donald Trump's visit to West Virginia on Thursday. During that visit, Mountain State Governor Jim Justice officially announced his switch to the Republican Party, thereby consolidating full GOP control over the executive and legislative branches in that state, and bringing the total number of Republican U.S. governors to 35.

Two polls conducted by reputable Democratic pollsters show Republican Rep. Rick Berg to be in serious trouble in the North Dakota Senate race, especially now that former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) has entered the race. The first survey, conducted in mid-August well before Heitkamp jumped into the contest, was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. It found voters preferring Berg over a Democrat by a mere 4 points — 44 percent to 40 percent — in a generic Senate ballot test. Only 33 percent of respondents rated Berg’s job performance as good or excellent, while 55 percent termed it...

Every election cycle, a few candidates and campaigns stand out as remarkable for their absurdity, their outrageousness, their futility or their sheer gall. They need to be recognized. No, I’m not talking about a campaign that proves to be remarkable for its weak fundraising (such as Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Lee Fisher) or that runs a weird ad that backfires (like Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Jack Conway’s “Aqua Buddha” ad). Plenty of candidates come up short or make a mistake. That’s understandable and certainly forgivable. But the candidates and campaigns that follow are in a class of their own. They...

So what happened this election cycle? As voters across the country head to the polls today, here are a few thoughts. • Democrats never succeeded in changing the trajectory of the election cycle that developed roughly midway through last year. Once voters decided President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats weren’t the answer, the election cycle was set. That doesn’t mean that the size of the Republican wave was inevitable, but it does mean that all of the Democratic spin turned out to be little more than hot air. Democrats wanted to blame President George W. Bush and make the midterm...

As we enter the final week of the election, everyone wants to know how big the House GOP wave will be. No one has a precise answer yet, but if past performance is any guide, the gold-standard psephologists when it comes to political fortune-telling are Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg — and yesterday, both of Cook and Rothenberg showed a massive shift to the GOP. If we use the accuracy of their 2006 and 2008 predications as an indicator, we will be able get a good idea of exactly how large the wave will be from their final House-race ratings,...

There's less than four months to go before the November midterm elections, and by the looks of things now, Republicans have a legitimate shot at capturing control of the House. That's the sense of Stuart Rothenberg, the widely respected political analyst who publishes the conveniently-titled "Rothenberg Political Report." Stu sat down and talked politics with All Things Considered host Robert Siegel for an interview that will air this evening. Of the 435 seats in the House, Democrats currently hold 255, Republicans 178, and there are two vacancies — the Republican seat in Indiana where Mark Souder resigned and the Democratic...

Maybe House Republicans learned their lesson last week after President Obama joined them at their retreat and proved once again to be a very formidable opponent rather than a mere foil. But even if the president’s poised performance brought some of them back to reality, Democratic defeats in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts, as well as public opinion polls showing voters unhappy with the direction of the country, have combined to make too many Republicans downright giddy about the fall elections. In fact, GOP political consultants and strategists aren’t popping champagne corks yet. Instead, they worry about the euphoria on...

After a stunning GOP Senate win in Massachusetts and a slew of new polls showing many Democratic incumbents in trouble, it’s hard to argue with the obvious: the Republicans unquestionably have momentum as 2010 begins. We are adding a dozen new seats to our list of districts “in play” – all of them currently held by Democrats. In addition, we have moved 16 districts within our list – two held by the GOP and the rest currently represented by a Democrat. All of the moves benefit the GOP, either because Republican districts now look safer or Democratic districts appear more...

While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race to fill the remainder of the late-Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat. Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win. Move from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover.

Everyone and his brother has opinions about what happened on Tuesday, but not all assessments are equally correct, just as not all of the descriptions of the contests, while they were in progress, were equally on the mark. What were some of the mistakes and mischaracterizations during the campaigns and after the voting? One of the worst, I thought, was the widespread characterization of Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee in New York’s 23rd district, as a moderate. I realize that those of us in the media use that term to distinguish certain Republicans and Democrats from their more ideologically consistent...

Six months ago, the 2010 Senate battlefield looked relatively bare, with a few obvious skirmishes mostly in states with GOP incumbents. Three months later, the outlook had brightened dramatically for Democrats, largely the result of a number of GOP retirements and solid Democratic recruiting on those open seats. But now, as the dog days of summer begin, the landscape has shifted again, this time improving significantly for Republicans. Democrats no longer have the momentum they once possessed. Even more important, signs of some Democratic vulnerability have appeared, giving the National Republican Senatorial Committee opportunities to shoot at, rather than forcing...

In May, I made an appearance on "Hardball with Chris Matthews," one of MSNBC's political shows. The segment's main focus was the current state of the Republican Party. When the segment ended and I walked off the set, I knew that that would likely be my last appearance on "Hardball." I had decided that I would not accept another invitation to appear on the program, should one come. --snip-- During the show on which I appeared, Matthews referred more than once to Republicans as "Luddites" and took every opportunity imaginable to portray them as crackpots. The show's topics inevitably pander...

Over the past few weeks, a handful of potentially strong Republican challengers have jumped into House races. Sid Leiken in Oregon, Frank Guinta in New Hampshire, Van Tran in California and Cory Gardner in Colorado, for example, look to be the kind of recruits whom Republicans didn’t get last cycle. ....

AN UPDATE IS DUE WITHIN ONE WEEK .... (approx. 23 key DEM Districts) .... * NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D) * NY 20 Murphy, D * AL 2 (Bright, D) * ID 1 (Minnick, D) * MD 1 (Kratovil, D) * MS 1 (Childers, D) Lean Democratic (1R, 9D) * CO 4 (Markey, D) * FL 8 (Grayson, D) * LA 2 (Cao, R) * MI 7 (Schauer, D) * NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D) * NC 8 (Kissell, D) * OH 1 (Driehaus, D) * OH 15 (Kilroy, D) * PA 10 (Carney, D) * VA 5 (Perriello, D) Democrat...

“I realize that there are those who simply don’t believe Washington can bring about this change. And the odds are long. It’s failed too many times. There are too many special interests and entrenched lobbyists invested in the status quo. ... I didn’t come to Washington to take the easy route, or to work for the powerful and the well-connected interests who have run this city for too long. I came here to work for the American people.” President Barack Obama March 2, 2009 For somebody who wants to break the old political mold, Obama certainly continues to rely on...

Two months ago in this space, I identified five states that I argued would pick the next president. Tell me how these states -- Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and Michigan -- will go in November, I wrote, and I'll tell you who will be our next president ("The Big 5: Picking the States That Will Pick the President"). As the presidential race has developed, those five states seem to hold the same predictive value now that they did then. Sure, there are a handful of additional states that could turn the election to either Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) or...

Republicans and conservatives are rallying behind Sen. John McCain's White House bid, but not because they are so enamored with him or his agenda. Instead, their loyalty is based on their perception that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama as president, particularly with large Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress, would be utterly disastrous. Regardless of whether you agree with them about the results of a Democratic presidential victory later this year, a McCain victory might produce its own series of domino-like events that ultimately might hurt the Grand Old Party. ...I don't necessarily agree with Stewart that a McCain victory...

We all hear the same names mentioned as prospective running mates for John McCain: former Office of Management and Budget Director and one-time U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and even former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge. Each one would bring something to the ticket. Some come from crucial swing states that could help McCain reach 270 electoral votes. A number are governors, adding a non- Washington, D.C., piece to the ticket. By most standards, all are good-looking and articulate. And yet, none of them would change the partisan...