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Stuart Rothenberg: Sizing Up the 2010 Senate Contests
REAL CLEAR POLITICS ^ | August 4, 2009 | Stuart Rothenberg

Posted on 08/04/2009 6:02:42 AM PDT by kellynla

Six months ago, the 2010 Senate battlefield looked relatively bare, with a few obvious skirmishes mostly in states with GOP incumbents. Three months later, the outlook had brightened dramatically for Democrats, largely the result of a number of GOP retirements and solid Democratic recruiting on those open seats.

But now, as the dog days of summer begin, the landscape has shifted again, this time improving significantly for Republicans. Democrats no longer have the momentum they once possessed. Even more important, signs of some Democratic vulnerability have appeared, giving the National Republican Senatorial Committee opportunities to shoot at, rather than forcing it to play an entirely defensive game, as it has the past two cycles.

Fifteen months before the midterms, Democrats have major problems in two states - Illinois and Connecticut - while a third, Nevada, remains a potential headache. Republicans, on the other hand, have serious vulnerabilities in four states - Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio - and potential problems in two others. But of late, even those Republican vulnerabilities look less daunting than they once did.

The announcement by Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) that she will seek re-election rather than run for the Senate (or governor) immediately boosted Republican prospects in what remains a very difficult state for the GOP. But Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) should be a formidable candidate, while Democrats have a field that is less than intimidating.

And in Connecticut, veteran Sen. Chris Dodd (D) has aired multiple TV ads in an attempt to remind Constitution State voters what he has accomplished and what he stands for - an open acknowledgment that he has work to do to repair his image. Republicans now worry that Dodd, who just announced he will have surgery for prostate cancer, will retire rather than seek re-election...

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 111th; 2010; 2010midterms; elections; rothenberg; senate
"If politics is about momentum and message, then the outlook for '10 has changed considerably over the past couple of months. Democrats still have a wealth of opportunities and some advantages, but Republicans now have momentum and an improving issue mix. For the first time this cycle, I can imagine a scenario where Democrats do not gain Senate seats in 2010."

And my prediction is that "if" the Gelding Old Party gets a testicle & spine implant before next year; they might at least begin to retake the Majority in the Senate.

Of course we all know that "if" is the biggest word in the dictionary. LOL

1 posted on 08/04/2009 6:02:43 AM PDT by kellynla
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To: kellynla

Bump


2 posted on 08/04/2009 6:03:31 AM PDT by Dave W
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To: kellynla

He fails to mention Boxer’s vulnerability in CA.


3 posted on 08/04/2009 6:04:34 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy (tHE)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

That’s true. Wasn’t her challenger within 4 points recently?


4 posted on 08/04/2009 6:06:17 AM PDT by PowerPro (2009 - Conservative Revolution Reborn (Go Palin!))
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

Very interesting analysis. If everything should break their way, the GOP can gain some seats. A few months ago no one thought that would be possible. If that happens, and the Dems continue to slide as 2012 approaches, then the Repubs could well take back a majority in that year.

Sad to think that they could conceivably have gotten back up to 50 or 51 in 2010 if only a few thousand votes in a handful of states have shifted in 2006 and ‘08. If Allen, Talent, Burns, Coleman, and Stevens had managed to eke out wins the landscape would be so different today. What a shame.


5 posted on 08/04/2009 6:08:24 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: kellynla

later


6 posted on 08/04/2009 6:11:52 AM PDT by I_be_tc
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To: kellynla

Don’t know about any of the other analysis, but Kirk is going to have a very, very tough run here in IL.


7 posted on 08/04/2009 6:14:25 AM PDT by M. Dodge Thomas
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To: Old Retired Army Guy
He fails to mention Boxer’s vulnerability in CA.

Boxer always looks shaky but she will have another easy win. She will probably go back to her pro-abortion crap and that is enough in win voters in Coastal CA.

8 posted on 08/04/2009 6:25:52 AM PDT by C19fan
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To: Old Retired Army Guy
He fails to mention Boxer’s vulnerability in CA.

I wish I shared your confidence. Knowing the sheeple of the former Great State of California, I feel certain that they will return that wench to office, handily.

9 posted on 08/04/2009 6:36:38 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (Bang Bang Bang Bang Bang Bang Bang Bang *Ping*)
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To: kellynla

I’m surprised Rothenberg doesn’t say that possible GOP wins in VA and NJ in 2009 wouldn’t provide momentum towards 2010.


10 posted on 08/04/2009 7:11:28 AM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
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To: moose2004

No , I think Boxer is in trouble. California is in shambles and any incumbent will probally be voted out. The republicans have a rhino but otherwise a good canidate in that Hewlett Packard lady who who will be well funded.
Right now , from california , to get rid of the most arrogant piece of sh!it ever , Boxer, i’d take a rhino.


11 posted on 08/04/2009 7:44:22 AM PDT by RED SOUTH
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To: RED SOUTH

As long as we keep running RINOs, we’re never going to solve the problems we have.


12 posted on 08/04/2009 8:02:48 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: RED SOUTH

I would just not support Carly Fiorina at all...

Go back and look at what she said about folks losing their jobs back in th e90’s due to corporations outsourcing their domestic workforces...

She basically said that American workers need to just deal with it, and adjust...

I have never forgotten that attitude she has about the people who kept her above water for so long...

She can take her political career and ambitions and shove it...


13 posted on 08/04/2009 8:37:26 AM PDT by stevie_d_64
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