Free Republic

Despite the best efforts of the national press and liberal commentators to declare the presidential race over, Sen. John McCain is within striking distance of Sen. Barack Obama as the campaign winds it way into the final two weeks. A look at the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Obama's lead shrinking to less than 6 points for the first time in ten days. Six of the last nine polls recorded in the national average show Obama ahead by five points or less. And two recent polls show the race tightening even more; with Obama clinging to just a...

I have spent a great deal of time analyzing faulty procedures in the national political polls for the presidential race this year. I have noted proofs of invalidity and the significance of party affiliation weighting in the published claims of such polls. But a number of people have observed that Barack Obama is also leading in a number of state polls, and they quite reasonably ask if those polls are valid or not. The chief difficulties in the state polls, are the facts that there are so many polling groups performing state polling (Real Clear Politics has reports from 49...

I apologise in advance because this email may be a little longer, but it has some very important information that you need to know if you've been following the election in the MSM (mainstream media) even just a little. Please read this all the way through. If you've followed the news, by now you are aware that John McCain is down in the polls. Way down. Hideously down, so far down that he will never, ever, not in a million years possibly recover from the abyss into which his campaign has slipped. For the past two weeks, poll after national...

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: ALABAMA (USA Polling Group): McCain - 52%, Obama - 25%. FLORIDA (Miami Herald): McCain - 47%, Obama - 45%. FLORIDA (Research 2000): McCain - 46%, Obama - 45%, Others - 3%. ILLINOIS (Research 2000): Obama - 56%, McCain - 36%. ILLINOIS (Rasmussen): Obama - 56%, McCain - 40%. IOWA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 54%, McCain - 43%, Others - 2%. IOWA (Research 2000): Obama - 53%, McCain - 39%, Others - 3%. MICHIGAN (EPIC/MRA): Obama - 43%, McCain - 42%, Nader...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Connecticut finds Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. Given that choice, 4% would opt for “some other candidate” while 5% are not sure. In early March, Obama led McCain by twelve percentage points. However, that poll was conducted before Obama’s controversial former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, became part of the campaign dialogue. Currently, Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of Connecticut voters. That rating is down ten percentage points since March. McCain is viewed favorably by 54%, down four points from the previous survey. In Connecticut, Obama leads...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Louisiana shows U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu with a three-percentage point advantage over Republican challenger John Kennedy 47% to 44%.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Louisiana shows John McCain with a nine-percentage-point lead over Barack Obama, 50% to 41%. McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters, Obama by 45%. George W. Bush won the state by fifteen points in Election 2004 and by eight points four years earlier. McCain leads among voters over 40, Obama leads among those under 30, and 30-somethings are evenly divided. McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans but Obama has just a 63% to 27% advantage among Democrats. The likely Democratic nominee has a seven-point advantage among unaffiliated voters in...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Nevada shows John McCain holding a modest lead over Barack Obama in the race for the state’s Electoral College votes. McCain attracts support from 46% of the state’s likely voters while Obama earns 40% of the vote. A month ago, McCain had a five point advantage. Obama currently attracts just 65% support from Democrats in the state. That is at least partly a reflection of the ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton. The Nevada election poll found a continuing major divide among the state’s Democratic voters. While 32% believe it is time for...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania finds Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. See video. A month ago, immediately following the Keystone State’s hard-fought Democratic Presidential Primary, McCain had a one-point edge over Obama. Two weeks before the Primary, Obama had an eight-point edge over the Republican hopeful. Obama leads McCain by nine points among women but trails by eight among men. McCain is supported by 71% of Republican voters while Obama picks up just 63% of the Democratic vote. However, Obama also leads by eight points among unaffiliated voters. Obama is...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Republican Senator Ted Stevens is trailing by two percentage points in his bid for re-election. Stevens attracts 45% of the vote while Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) earns 47%. A month ago, it was Stevens with 46% support and Begich at 45%. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable, especially when they trail a challenger early in the campaign season. Stevens is supported by just 68% of those who plan to vote for John McCain. Twenty-four percent (24%) of McCain voters say they’ll be splitting the ticket to vote...

The Pacific Northwest is beginning to look like very friendly territory for Barack Obama. Last week, Rasmussen Reports polling showed that Obama had opened a double-digit lead over John McCain in Oregon. Now, Obama has done the same in Washington state (see video report). The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Washington finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 51% to 40%. For Obama, that’s an improvement since late-March when the presumptive Democratic nominee led his Republican counterpart by five percentage points. Nationally, Obama and McCain are essentially even in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In...