Posted on 05/25/2008 3:33:31 PM PDT by Red Steel
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania finds Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. See video.
A month ago, immediately following the Keystone State’s hard-fought Democratic Presidential Primary, McCain had a one-point edge over Obama. Two weeks before the Primary, Obama had an eight-point edge over the Republican hopeful.
Obama leads McCain by nine points among women but trails by eight among men. McCain is supported by 71% of Republican voters while Obama picks up just 63% of the Democratic vote. However, Obama also leads by eight points among unaffiliated voters.
Obama is viewed favorably by 51% of the state’s voters, McCain by 49%. A month ago, both men earned favorable reviews from 51%. Before the Pennsylvania Primary, Obama was viewed favorably by 57%, McCain by 50%.
Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a 69.0 % chance of winning Pennsylvania’s twenty-one Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by a narrow 51% to 48% margin. Four years earlier, Al Gore won the state by four percentage points. At the time this poll was released, Pennsylvania was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain is very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential Nomination, she leads McCain in Pennsylvania by eleven percentage points, 50% to 39%. The former First Lady is viewed favorably by 52% of voters in the state. A separate national survey found that the number of Democrats who want Clinton to drop out of the race has declined over the last ten days. Data like this helps explain why Barack Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign. The way that he finally resolves the challenge from Senator Clinton may determine who moves into the White House next January.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Pennsylvania voters say it is more important to bring troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Thirty-three percent (33%) say victory is more important. Nationally, 52% say getting the troops home is the higher priority.
In the Keystone State, 44% say that victory is somewhat likely under a McCain Administration. If Obama is elected, just 20% believe victory is likely. However, 57% say it’s likely the troops would come home within four years under a President Obama. Just 38% have the same optimism if McCain becomes President.
Pennsylvania voters are evenly divided as to which Democratic candidate would do better in the general election. Among all voters, 42% say Obama would be tougher while 40% name Clinton. Among Democrats, 46% say Clinton would be the better candidate while 43% say Obama. Those figures are similar to the national average.
Just 27% of Pennsylvania voters say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down two points from a month ago. Nationally, the President’s Approval Ratings are at all-time lows. Most Pennsylvania voters—55%--say the President is doing a poor job.
Governor Ed Rendell, a strong Clinton supporter, earns better reviews—41% good or excellent and 23% poor.
The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.
See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.
Out of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. and Minnesota, (states Gore and Kerry won) McCain should be able to pick off at least one; thus the presidency.
It is still very very early, and the Obamao Polling Discount has never been properly added into any polling data that I’ve ever seen.
a 2% lead in november for Obamao may be worthless.
For some reason, I honestly do NOT BELIEVE those numbers. Wait, I’m having a flashback, oh wait, They had KERRY LEADING by double digits most of the time.
Polling companies are used to make people believe their vote doesn’t count but MOST Americans are getting wise to this little tactic used MAINLY by the Moonbat Brigade.
The only poll I believe is after the count takes place on election day.
I wouldn't put Minnesota on that list.
How is this possible after he insulted the hell out of the state?
If you believe barack curious george mcgovern will win Pa I have a nice sturdy bridge here to sell you.
In PA, the favorite letter is not “P” but “D” this year. It could be “C” for “Change”, but “D” will have to do.
If McCain chooses Romney, Michigan is in the bag for McCain.
Since the GOP convention is in the Twin Cities and McCain might pick Gov. Pawlenty to be his running mate, I’d say McCain might have a shot at MN.
Frankly speaking, this Rasmussen Report is highly questionable. Being from a blue collar town in southwestern Pennsylvania, these telephone survey results make no sense at all.
What is their sample size? What assumptions did they make? What methodology did they use? Given the nonsensical results, I strongly suspect their methods. It does not add up.
Basically I am getting tired of all the survey results being reported. They vary all over the place; and seldom are proven correct by the actual voting results. What a waste of our time!
“This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 19-20, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.”
Methodology
“Rasmussen Reports collects data for its survey research using an automated polling methodology. Scott Rasmussen is a recognized pioneer in this field and has conducted automated surveys involving more than 4 million completed interviews since 1996. He has conducted more macro-sample studies than any other individual or company.
Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, we use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.
For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Index, the automated technology insures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time. A person taking our survey tonight will hear the exact same thing that another respondent heard when we began this project in October 2001.
Survey Design
The first step in any survey project is to design the study. For the Rasmussen Index survey, we have a standard bank of questions that are asked each night. Most automated surveys involve 10 to 20 questions.
Following survey design, the Rasmussen Reports’ questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. We can ask open-ended questions and later transcribe the recorded responses if a project requires it. We rarely do so.
Survey questions to be asked on a given night can be submitted as late as mid-afternoon on the day of the survey. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors.”
The claim that Rasmussen is a "recognized pioneer" is this field is an unsupported assertion common in many advertising claims. Assuming that their survey of 500 likely voters is correct; that is the +/- 4% sampling error with 95% confidence is accurate for the populations sampled, that is the 500 folks. Then I would still question their weighting methodology.
Furthermore, while Rasmussen might accurately infer the likely voting of the general population at that moment in time, they cannot predict the likely voting of that same group one or two days from now. One of the few pollsters who gets it right is the Zogby poll; even that one sometimes is off by a large margin.
I think these polls tend to please their funding sources, and skew their assumptions a bit. Perhaps they should be required to reveal their funding sources, and be more clear about exactly what weighting factors they are using to extrapolate their results to the actual voters. The variation in results is legion.
In the 4 years leading up to 2008 election, the polling organizations will have released literally THOUSANDS of polls on the 2008 election. But the ONLY one that they will EVER be held accountable for is the one they release on the morning of the election (if even then).
So, it seems to me that there is absolutely NO reason to believe any polls that they release, since there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to prevent them all from being push polls designed ONLY to manipulate public opinion.
In the 4 years leading up to 2008 election, the polling organizations will have released literally THOUSANDS of polls on the 2008 election. But the ONLY one that they will EVER be held accountable for is the one they release on the morning of the election (if even then).
So, it seems to me that there is absolutely NO reason to believe any polls that they release, since there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to prevent them all from being push polls designed ONLY to manipulate public opinion.
Boy, are you right! Given that all in the MSM are as smart as doorknobs without their teleprompters, they "make" news by paying for polls and then "reporting" the results, usually, if not all the time, with a liberal slant. Perhaps they assume that we are as dumb as they are! What has happened to the media?
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