Posted on 10/14/2008 11:19:52 AM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus
I have spent a great deal of time analyzing faulty procedures in the national political polls for the presidential race this year. I have noted proofs of invalidity and the significance of party affiliation weighting in the published claims of such polls. But a number of people have observed that Barack Obama is also leading in a number of state polls, and they quite reasonably ask if those polls are valid or not. The chief difficulties in the state polls, are the facts that there are so many polling groups performing state polling (Real Clear Politics has reports from 49 different polling groups on state polls for the presidential race), there are different demographic norms for each state, and whatever is skewing the national polls is likely to be influencing reported state results as well. But while the past does not guarantee the future, I did find some interesting points in the 2004 state polls.
Not every polling group which is publishing polls this year also polled and published in 2004. And many of the polling groups are limited to only a few states, or just one. The Field Poll, for example, is only concerned with California. So I limited my analysis to nine major polling groups which conducted state polls in a large number of states in 2004. I was looking for polls which released polls just prior to the election, and which also released polls during the first two weeks of October of 2004. The results of that examination are presented here. I hope you will find them illuminating.
(Excerpt) Read more at wizbangblog.com ...
Battleground Poll: O 53 (+2) M 40 (-3)
Tuesday, October 14, 2008 8:30:48 AM · 119 of 170
Califreak to Longstreet63
I’m not believing the bogus polls.
My assumption is they only pick registered dems & MSM types.
My guess is McCain is really a little bit ahead or it’s too close to call.
It has to be that.
Why else would the dark side be frantically registering all these bogus voters?
They’re afraid they’ll lose and they’re trying to steal it.
Polls schmolls.
Not likely...chicken littles, defeatists and outright trolls will never stop hyperventilating even if put on pure oxygen. The reality we have to face is that this election is 1980 all over again, i.e. no one will know the outcome until the only poll that matters is taken, on Nov 4.
Well...one thing is noteworthy here, also. Assuming that the state polls are underestimating McCain’s support, doesn’t 2004 demonstrate that just b/c the polls are bad, Republicans won’t simply stay home? If they weren’t discouraged then, why should we worry about them being discouraged now?
Perhaps something to help the mood here. I know I have been needing many an upper.
I’ll add this. In the event that McCain pulls this off, the polling as propaganda story will be one of the most political stories in a generation. Yes, in the past polls have been hit or miss. This year seems like a systematic effort to influence the election, which is truly fascistic/Orwellian.
“My assumption is they only pick registered dems & MSM types.
My guess is McCain is really a little bit ahead or it’s too close to call.”
What point would these people have to lie and falsify thier polls? They are in teh polling business and if thier polls are wrong theyre going to become laughing stocks.
The grave situation is that we most likely ARE down so we gotta work our butts off in the next 3 weeks. Ok?
Reagan - Carter day of the election tied.
1994 GOP revoltion was called a joke.
Kerry up by 7 in Ohio
Kerry won the 2004 election.
Because they are currently being paid to produce the results we are seeing. As has been mentioned in numerous other threads, look for the numbers to tighten up in the final week. This is because the final week polling is the only really worthwhile polling, from an accuracy-for-advertising standpoint. Customers don't care how good you did calling the election the last week of September. Customers DO care how close you came the first week on November.
The grave situation is that we most likely ARE down so we gotta work our butts off in the next 3 weeks. Ok?
Like I've been saying, regardless of whether the polls are accurate or not, let's WORK on this election like they are.
Oboma is unlikeable, because he refuses to let people really get to know him. I don't think people will vote for a stranger. They know who McCain is.
The left uses the Alinksi tactics all the time - "If your numbers are small, hide them in the darkness, but raise such a clatter people will begin to believe there are many more of you."
2004 showed heavy participation despite the polls. But 2006 (a non-presidential year, of course) showed that demoralizing the R electorate to be an effective strategy. They’re just trying stronger spices this year, I think, to try and intoxicate the R side into non-participation.
How else can one explain the rampant cries of “racism”, the out-of-control voter registration fraud, and the skittishness of “that one”, where he’s spending on barrage after barrage of ads, and yet still seeing only bumps in the polls that correspond directly with the party affiliation weighting adjustments made by the pollsters?
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