Posted on 05/17/2008 6:23:01 PM PDT by Red Steel
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Republican Senator Ted Stevens is trailing by two percentage points in his bid for re-election. Stevens attracts 45% of the vote while Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) earns 47%. A month ago, it was Stevens with 46% support and Begich at 45%.
Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable, especially when they trail a challenger early in the campaign season. Stevens is supported by just 68% of those who plan to vote for John McCain. Twenty-four percent (24%) of McCain voters say they’ll be splitting the ticket to vote for Begich.
Still, the partisan lines have begun to harden. Stevens is supported by 79% of GOP voters, up from 71% a month ago. Begich attracts 89% of Democrats, up eleven points in a month. Begich also has a 53% to 35% advantage among unaffiliated voters.
Stevens is viewed favorably by 46% of the state’s voters, down from 50% a month ago. The number with an unfavorable opinion of their Senator has grown six points to 53%.
Begich earns favorable reviews from 54% while 38% have an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are down a bit from last month when he was viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 35%.
On April 21, Begich officially entered the race to challenge the longest-serving Republican ever in the U.S. Senate. Begich was six-years old when Stevens was first elected to his current job in 1968.
Six years ago, Stevens won re-election with 78% of the vote. Since then, however, he has been caught up in a federal corruption investigation. FBI agents served a search warrant on Stevens' Girdwood home. Two years ago, the state’s Junior Senator Lisa Murkowski narrowly held on to her seat and won with less than 50% of the vote.
While Stevens may face a challenging road to re-election and is clearly vulnerable, he will get some help from the state’s political gravity which heavily favors Republicans. Additionally, Stevens may be helped by the Republican Governor Sarah Palin who continues to earn rave reviews—73% of the state’s voters say she is doing a good or an excellent job. Just 7% say she is doing a poor job.
Stevens is far from the only Republican in trouble this year. Democrats have at least a chance of picking up Republican seats in Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, Kentucky and Texas. Two other Republican incumbents, Susan Collins in Maine and Pat Roberts in Kansas, are hovering just above the 50% mark in their bid for re-election.
While Stevens trouble is deepening, John McCain has gained ground over Barack Obama in Alaska. Nationally, McCain and Obama are very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Rasmussen Markets data currently shows that Stevens is given a 30.0 % chance to keep his job while the Democrats with a 52.0 % chance to pick up a seat in Alaska. Data in this paragraph is from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets, it costs nothing to join.
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"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
If Stevens got ANWR opened for oil consumption, he would most likely be ahead.
Once again, an entitled veteran politician puts his own personal interest ahead of his constituants and country. Conservatives need to unite around a well-known conservative to take him out in the GOP primary before it’s too late.
Loren Leman PLEASE pick up the motherlovin’ white courtesy phone ! You have barely 2 weeks left, dude !
The pork spending of this man is sicking and he should have been removed long ago.
Ted Stevens is a puke. Mark Begich will be an even bigger puke. What a great choice.
“Ted Stevens is a puke. Mark Begich will be an even bigger puke. What a great choice.”
It sure looks that way.
Ted Stevens..........and another one’s gone, and another one’s gone and another one BITES THE DUST....
We branged it on arselves, yessiree we deeid; dad blast it. We branged it on arselves.
All GOP House and Senate Members need to just wear a sign on their back that says:
“WHY WAIT UNTIL NOVEMBER? I’LL BEND OVER AND LET YOU KICK MY A** NOW”.
Ted Stevens is the Republican version of Bobby Byrd, but to Teddy’s credit, he does not have a closet full of no longer worn sheets.
It appears Stevens’ “Bridge To Nowhere” is going nowhere...
Once all these rats get in office it is going to be about impossible to remove them. I spent 40 years of my life under rat rule.
On a related note is there any polling on the house primary between Sean Parnell and Don Young?
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