<p>President Obama? Not so fast, says The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber. John McCain doesn’t need a “catastrophic external event” to defeat Obama on Election Day, Scheiber says.</p>
<p>“I happen to think Obama’s chances of winning are upward of 80 percent,” he writes at The Plank, his magazine’s political blog. He later adds, “But, truth be told, I can imagine a losing scenario that doesn’t involve outside events. It goes something like this: Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico, giving him 264 electoral votes, then narrowly loses the rest of the red states where he’s currently competitive.”</p>