I see three plausible scenarios for the Russian future:1. North Korea2. Imperial Reboot3. JubileeSince Ukraine is resolved to fight, the choice of a Russian historical track ultimately depends upon the resolve of the West. Today I'll outline the North Korea scenario 🧵If the West deescalates and Putin stays in power, he will become much stronger and Russia will become more like North Korea. You shouldn't delude yourself, there's no way back to February 23. As a result of "deescalation", Russia won't return to the status quoIf the West deescalates, it means Putin was absolutely, 100% right to rush Z and...