How Western retreat on Ukraine could strengthen Putin, or nothing wins like winning

Kamil Galeev via Twitter ^ | 3/28/2022 | Kamil Galeev

[Zhang Fei]

I see three plausible scenarios for the Russian future:

1. North Korea

2. Imperial Reboot

3. Jubilee

Since Ukraine is resolved to fight, the choice of a Russian historical track ultimately depends upon the resolve of the West. Today I'll outline the North Korea scenario 🧵

If the West deescalates and Putin stays in power, he will become much stronger and Russia will become more like North Korea. You shouldn't delude yourself, there's no way back to February 23. As a result of "deescalation", Russia won't return to the status quo

If the West deescalates, it means Putin was absolutely, 100% right to rush Z and all who doubted him were idiots. When Putin decided to fight, officials such as Foreign Intelligence Service chief Naryshkin hesitated. They doubted his decision. Victory will dispel any doubts

Many compare Putin's Russia with the USSR and Z-war with the Cold War. That's wrong. With the brief exception of 1945-1953 the USSR was always collectively run. Politburo actually discussed policy decisions. The USSR was much more oligarchical and modern Russia is more autocratic

With the exception of late Stalinism, the USSR was a Party oligarchy. Ruling clique made collective decisions and Politburo protocols showed they were *actually* discussing them. Politburo had real debates. Modern Russia has no debates. Only the Supreme Leader dictating his will

"Deescalation" proponents ignore its effect on the balance of power within Russia. Putin already concentrated enormous decision maker power in his hands, much more than Soviet rulers. Not everyone however, trusts his judgement 100%. Victory will show you must follow Putin blindly

Consider Munich agreement, 1938. When Hitler manufactured crisis in Czechoslovakia many in Germany doubted his judgement. Wehrmacht and Abwehr officers led by Hans Oster planned a coup aiming to assassinate Hitler and to overthrow the Nazi rule that leads Germany to catastrophe

Why didn't they do it then? Well, because the West deescalated. Neville Chamberlain chose appeasement strategy. He was afraid of the war and thus gave Hitler concessions to buy peace. However, these concessions very much increased Hitler's authority *within* Germany

German resolve in WWII should be viewed in the context of Munich. In 1938 Hitler put Germany on stake. Many doubted his judgement, some plotted to kill the madman. But then the West backed off and gave concessions. He isn't a madman, he is a genius. Those who doubted him are mad

Foreign policy impacts domestic policy. It's insane to ponder how this or that pact will change international balance of power without considering its effect on domestic balance. Every risky move he gets aways with increases the power of a ruler. We doubted him, but he was right

I noticed an interesting pattern. Those analysts who casually label dictatorial behaviour as "irrational" never managed to establish a proper dictatorship. They don't know how to build dictatorial power, they don't know how to keep it. They have no idea what they're talking about

Dictator *must* make risky "irrational" moves to shift domestic balance of power. When he puts the country on stake, many doubt his judgement. But once he wins, he's proven right. He's genius following him blindly is the smartest thing you can do. That's how he builds his power

Russian people may not have realised this yet, but officials know that Putin has put Russia at stake. More importantly, he put *them*, their lives, fortunes and careers on stake. They're very nervous. Many wish they could return to February 23 and undo all the following decisions

Russia can't make peace with Ukraine because it would mean Ukraine has won. Once Putin declared them as Nazis and promised to destroy them, he can't back off. That would mean he tried to finish them and failed. His judgement is weak. That will break his stand within Russian power

However, any agreement between Russia and the West, any deescalation, lifting of any sanctions will have the opposite effect. Russian authorities don't think they fighting with Ukraine. They think they're fighting with the West. Putin escalated conflict and the West backed off

Consider Zhirinovsky's speech in parliament on January 18, 2022. It may not reflect the united position of Russian power but it certainly reflects its worldview. We must wage a war to:

A. Defeat the West

B. Using our military superiority

C. And thus solve our economic problems

This speech reflects assumptions Russian rulers are basing their policy on. First, Zhirinovsky mentions Russia has "economic problems". It's a slip of the tongue and an understatement. In fact Russia is in a deep structural crisis. It's the oil exporter that ran out of cheap oil

Theoretically Russia has huge oil and gas deposits. But nearly all of them lie in the Arctic and are super expensive to develop. Moreover, Russia lacks technology to develop them alone and has to rely on Western investors and suppliers.

Russia is also dependent upon technological import. Russia doesn't produce much and what it does produce, it produces on Western machines, with Western components and technologies. This can't be solved within the current sociopolitical order.  

Finally Russia is depopulating. It has fewer youngsters and fewer Russians. That's what believers in Russian resilience forget: yes, in the past Russia could afford huge human losses to win wars and industrialise. But back then it was young.  

These are "economic problems" Zhirinovsky was talking about and which nearly everyone in the Russian ruling class was aware off. You shouldn't underestimate Russian officials, they may not be geniuses. Most of them are not even intellectuals. But most of them are not dumb

Now imagine yourself as Putin or those in power who support him. You know your country is in deep crisis. It's depopulating. It doesn't produce much and is critically dependent on import. It mostly exports oil & gas and now runs out of cheap oil * gas, the rest is in the Arctic

Russian leadership more or less knew how badly Russia is doing in industrial production, in natural resources extraction, in demography. They knew the ship is sinking. But they couldn't know how bad is situation in Russian army. Why? Because no expert could know that

The awful situation in Russian economy was a common knowledge. Many knew including those working for the Kremlin. Consider deputy PM Belousov who briefly worked as an acting Prime Minister. He is an economist who made very grim assessments of Russian economy and demography

Those in power could have quite accurate and reliable data on situation in Russian economy. Because such data is common knowledge. Everyone could easily get verifiable info on it and many of those who did, made it into the power

Ministry for Economic Affairs is very meritocratic, very open and is actively headhunting. They tried to invite me for a job interview five times in 2021 (= evidence of their high reasoning abilities). They're targeting people with Western education, tech companies background etc

Putin has employees who accurately understood the economic situation and he read their briefs. We have every reason to believe that Putin and those around him had access to the reliable data on Russian economy and demography. He knew ship is sinking, so you have to do something

But nobody could provide Putin with accurate reliable data on the capacities of the Russian army. Because such data didn't exist in the first place. Russian army has not been tested in battle against big regular armies since 1945. Ukraine 2022 is the first experiment since WWII

Since WWII Russian army has been involved only in police operations against civilians in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, or guerrillas like in Chechnya and Syria. But Russia has no experience of fighting regular armies. 2022 is an experiment.

Putin had reliable data on economy. He couldn't have such data on army performance in a real war cuz such data didn't exist. He relied on opinions of generals and experts who believed in easy victory. In this respect Russian experts were not much better than the Western ones

When I say Putin couldn't have reliable data, I mean reliable *aggregated* data. Ofc he could talk with regular soldiers, get some anecdotal data and extrapolate it. That would be much better than "listening to experts". Consider interview of Wagner mercenary who fought in Syria

Putin didn't collect and extrapolate the accurate anecdotal data from the frontline soldiers. Instead he relied on inaccurate aggregated data provided by generals and experts who were just wrong like most experts around the world. NB: do not ignore experience of frontline workers

This asymmetry in data accuracy explains Putin's decision to rush Z. He knew how badly is Russian economy doing, but he believed in might of the Russian army. So he thought that being in an economic decline, Russia still has military leverage which would be silly not to employ

I wanna clarify, it wasn't Putin's personal delusion. It was a Russian mass delusion. They greatly overestimated Russian military capacities. Compare the tone of Putin's chief propagandist Solovyov in late February and in late March

Before Z-invasion, Russian nationalists saw military might as a leverage and openly discussed that. Let me quote the following article by Sputnik and Pogrom - the major nationalist media. Read it, it's very telling - it's the ideology of aggressive policy based on mercenary army

"Russians know and love doing two things - the war and the literature. Whatever we do that doesn't involve either war or literature almost always turns out badly. Many Russian institutions are heavily militarised for this very reason"

"We have a destitute people which doesn't incline to idealism. Russians love money very much and will kill anyone for money - we saw this in 1990s... It's a boring northern country, you can cheer yourself up only with a "beautiful life", abundance, prosperity"

"Plan of any military campaign:

- Soldiers get condo + Zhiguli

- Junior officers - large condo + foreign car for 20000$

- Senior officers - townhouse + foreign car for 40000$

- Generals a cottage + foreign car for 80000$

- Minister of defense - estate + foreign car for 80000$"

"That's it. We don't need anything else. What Ukraine? What North Kazakhstan? Start using "South Ural" instead. Audi A4 and new condo are at stake. These guys will conquer even Australia. Where do we get the money from? Oil, gas, trophies. We don't even need patriotic propaganda"

"Why are you occupying Constantinople? You can't respond: "I want to eat black caviar and ride on Cadillac with top models". So we will talk of the cross over Hagia Sophia, Orthodoxy. That's good enough. Any justification is good enough including even the Fifth International"

"They criticise Russians for lack of idealism - Russians will sell their motherland for cash. I actually agree. But it also means that Russians would do whatever with *others'* motherland for money. They'll swim in gold like Scrooge McDuck and get status of honourable warriors"

That's a very telling publication. Western midwits make up BS justifications for Z-invasion and invent idealistic motivation for Z-invaders. But according to Russian ethnonationalists it's just a mercenary army that will kill whomever for money. Source:

https://sputnikipogrom.com/politics/9147/russian-war-machine/

When we talk of Russian ruling class, we are talking about not dumb, highly pragmatic and highly opportunistic guys. Most of them are already doubting Putin's judgement. They may not tell it or tell it in a very politically correct way. But they're in doubt. He put them on stake

However, if Putin wins, and deescalation with the West means his victory, it will greatly shift the balance of power within Russia in his favour. Yes, Russia as a whole will be weaker. But Putin himself much stronger. His mythos and Russian imperial mythos will grow stronger

What changes should in expect in Russian society, if Putin wins? First, ruling class will not be able to doubt or question his authority. Within Russian imperial mythos victory is all redeeming and the inability of the West to crush Putin means his victory

It will retrospectively legitimise all the Putin's record. Soviets did this trick in late 1960s. Dekulakization, industrialisations, purges were necessary to win the WWII. Victory is all redeeming. And Putin's victory against the West will retrospectively redeem everything, too

Much of Russia believes in Putin. Their faith will grow much stronger. Many don't believe in him. They'll either get ashamed of their previous views, repent and become stronger and more unquestioning believers or will just shut up and live in silence

Russia has already changed. Major oppositional media were either closed or lowkey stopped working. Any institutions who tried to question Putin are being quickly dismantled. This encroachment will only increase after his victory. No independent speech will exist in new Russia

Russia will become much poorer but its rulers might even like that. Consider this paper by now Deputy PM Belousov. The growth of middle class is problematic:

- they buy expensive imported goods

- they increase cost of labor, demand more labor rights

- they try to emigrate

Russian elite doesn't want Russians to be rich. They view poverty as a competitive advantage. If they're poor, we can keep wages low, decreasing cost of production. If they are poor, they can't buy expensive foreign goods worsening our trade balance. Finally, poor won't emigrate

Demise of private sector is a problem only in short perspective. In a long term it's a win win situation. Private sector destroyed, the emigration routes closed, people will have no choice but to work for those high in dominance hierarchy for food. That's a competitive advantage

Another advantage of poverty is that you can easier find recruits for your imperial wars. Many are surprised by Russian parents refusing to help their kids who were capptured in Ukraine. But if you think of it, it makes total sense. These families view their kids as a resource

Parents all around the world sell their kids to prostitution and it surprises no one. These families view their children as an economic resource which must earn money for them, this way or another. That's exactly how much of the Russian poor view their children

Why soldiers' families aren't protesting? Well, they are lavishly compensated. You can now get 170 000 salary for enlisting into army. That's huge money for province with 20 000 salaries. Putin also pays over 7 million rubles to families of soldiers killed in Ukraine. A good deal

The only case of families protesting agains the war in Ukraine I could find, happened in ethnic province - Karachaevo-Cherkessiya. Six women from 29 to 61 years old blocked the road demanding to disclose fate of their kins sent to Ukraine. They were arrested of course

Russian provincial families are losing their sons in Ukraine. But they won't protest. Their son died as a hero + they get a payout. Great deal. Moreover, since their son died "for Russia", we must keep fighting till the victory. We don't want our boy to die in vain, do we?

Cynical it may sound, death of a son in Ukraine is a good deal, because:

1. He is an economic resource anyway

2. War is a good way to cash out this resource

It's not that his death is a win, it's that once he's dead or captured you just write off the lost resource

Consider that men in Russia don't live too long anyway and the lives of men from poor towns and countryside are especially short. You can verify it walking through a small town in Novgorod or in Ivanovo. Yes, they die, but they wouldn't live too long anyway. Not much of a loss

I understand that this account may sound dark and even dehumanising. It's not. Parents who sell their kids into prostitution are very, very human. It's just they have no honour. Modern culture tends to idealize and glorify poverty, while in fact there's little glory down there

As Chesterton wrote "the whole point of property is that in that alone can be naturally nourished the sentiment of honour". And vice versa: where there is no property, no sentiment of honour can be nourished. It's a stable equilibrium. This order can last for centuries.

[Zhang Fei]

Part of the Russian mythos, dating back almost a thousand years, and given firm foundation by its vast territorial expanse acquired at swordpoint, is its indomitable martial prowess. In 1898, the Russian General Staff carried out a comprehensive study of Russian warfare since the foundations of the state. In the summary volume, the editor told his readers that they could take pride in their country’s military record and face the future with confidence — between 1700 and 1870, Russia had spent 106 years fighting 38 military campaigns, of which 36 had been “offensive”.

[Zhang Fei]

Ukraine ping

Interesting post by patriotfury about Russian attempts, mirroring Communist era machinations, at undermining the West, by helping to facilitate vast refugee flows in its direction:

Don’t like ABC at all, this is bigger than ABC, and I am a bit surprised they would even circulate this article, as it potentially sheds light on a larger ongoing NORTHCOM/RU problem involving leftist political office holders in the US -

Immigration As Long Term Weapon

“”It’s a point of leverage that Moscow could use in its overall effort to break the EU and NATO, and compel cooperation or acquiescence on areas that are higher priority to the Kremlin: Eastern Europe,” says Emily Estelle, research manager with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.”

“In 2015, in the wake of international outcry over Moscow’s invasion and annexation of parts of Ukraine the year before, Russia inexplicably began opening normally well-guarded border crossings to Finland and Norway. The move allowed thousands of refugees, including those fleeing unrest in Central Asia, to spill over into Western nations.”

“Russia’s interests and strategy in Libya has more to do with filling the holes left by the U.S. and extending control over the Mediterranean Sea,” says Oded Berkowitz, an Israeli intelligence analyst and deputy chief intelligence officer with the MAX consultancy. *Mass migration is among the knock-on effects Russia considers as a part of its intervention, which it primarily focuses on projecting military strength and securing military and trade routes. “I’m not sure if it’s a primary objective or just a helpful byproduct.”

https://www-usnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2019-11-08/russia-positioning-itself-in-libya-to-unleash-migrant-crisis-into-europe?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&context=amp&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16306899947185&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usnews.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-report%2Farticles%2F2019-11-08%2Frussia-positioning-itself-in-libya-to-unleash-migrant-crisis-into-europe

“In 2016, the NATO Supreme Commander General Philip Breedlove observed Russia and Syria were using mass migration as a “non-military means to create divisions in the NATO alliance and Europe” and “destabilize and undermine the continent.” As Russia controls the tap to mass migration via Libya, we may see that merely the threat of mass migration will make General Breedlove’s observations applicable once again.”

https://warroom-armywarcollege-edu.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/weaponizing-human-migration/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16306899947185&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwarroom.armywarcollege.edu%2Farticles%2Fweaponizing-human-migration%2F

Not spoken of here again, are other significant NORTHCOM and AFRICOM intentional refugee hot spots —

While I was deployed to the Kenyan/Somali border, there were already more than 1.5 million refugees in Northern Kenya (in one camp!), due to conflicts fueled directly by both Russia and China. Russia would go to almost any extent to reestablish Red Sea control in an effort neutralize the US, but also to supply the Huithi’s war against SA from Yemen, directly from across the Red Sea.

We had almost no way to even deal with what they were doing in Ethiopia and Sudan. (As well, our main issue was the mass slaughter of both Kenyan, European, and American citizens by Al Shabaab, along Kenya’s Central Eastern coastal flank.)

Powerful —

“Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke “Afro-American racists”. Russia should “introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics”.[9]”

I am going to get a bit incendiary here —

The Clinton/Obama/Biden continuum has remained aligned generationally with pre formal to present formal Putin policies.

There has been significant evidence, and thorough analysis, which has been significantly cut off (with some analysts being penalized for revealing the “game”), revealing the same exact strategies (links below), being jointly and collusively used, between Moscow and predominantly leftists politicians, and political cover provided in DC.

As such, some in the know, have been silenced, and other less principled people scared to speak up.

When the word “captured” is used, it is not stated lightly.

There does exist strong evidence of GRU and FSB interconnectivity with governments, foundations, and leftist NGO’s throughout Latin America, involved in all aspects and organization of illegal immigration to all points across the US.

The following examples of foreign “immigration as long term weapon” activity has been well known on our side of the pond since the late 1990’s, and if the truth could be revealed, would be yet another powerful piece of evidence revealing joint US leftist/RU conspiracy to neutralize and destroy the US from within,

AND — “...introduce geopolitical *disorder* into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus *destabilizing internal political processes* in the U.S.”

Russian Strategy of mass illegal immigration Alas a weapon for political destabilization of foreign powers -

https://www-usnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2019-11-08/russia-positioning-itself-in-libya-to-unleash-migrant-crisis-into-europe?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&context=amp&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16306899947185&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usnews.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-report%2Farticles%2F2019-11-08%2Frussia-positioning-itself-in-libya-to-unleash-migrant-crisis-into-europe

UA Army War College -

https://warroom-armywarcollege-edu.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/weaponizing-human-migration/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16306899947185&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwarroom.armywarcollege.edu%2Farticles%2Fweaponizing-human-migration%2F

[oblomov]

While this narrative is compelling from a historical viewpoint, IMO the “West” has ceased to stand for the values presumed here.

Rather than stand for classical liberal values, let alone Judeo-Christian moral principles, it has come to be a post-rational empire that is even more revolutionary than the Maoism or Bolshevism.

I’ll defend the old “West”, but the new postmodern West is not worth defending.

[BiglyCommentary]

“Theoretically Russia has huge oil and gas deposits. But nearly all of them lie in the Arctic and are super expensive to develop. Moreover, Russia lacks technology to develop them alone and has to rely on Western investors and suppliers.”

Russia will slowly bleed out with Western sanctions. They cannot win.

“Russia is also dependent upon technological import. Russia doesn’t produce much and what it does produce, it produces on Western machines, with Western components and technologies. This can’t be solved within the current sociopolitical order. “

This also will make them bleed out badly. The Putin fantasizers are full of it and insanely delusional thibking Purin can win.

[Cronos]

Zhang However, any agreement between Russia and the West, any deescalation, lifting of any sanctions will have the opposite effect. Russian authorities don't think they fighting with Ukraine. They think they're fighting with the West. Putin escalated conflict and the West backed off

Exactly - that's what the pro-Putin folks here don't seem to get Consider Munich agreement, 1938. When Hitler manufactured crisis in Czechoslovakia many in Germany doubted his judgement. Wehrmacht and Abwehr officers led by Hans Oster planned a coup aiming to assassinate Hitler and to overthrow the Nazi rule that leads Germany to catastrophe

Why didn't they do it then? Well, because the West deescalated. Neville Chamberlain chose appeasement strategy. He was afraid of the war and thus gave Hitler concessions to buy peace. However, these concessions very much increased Hitler's authority *within* Germany

[blackberry1]

Glad somebody posted today’s CIA talking points. Fox got theirs too.

[Zhang Fei]

[Glad somebody posted today’s CIA talking points. Fox got theirs too.]

---

It’s always good to have a KGB/FSB counterpoint.

[Zhang Fei]

The author also goes into the fact that pretexts are just that - made-up reasons. Putin’s afraid of NATO? If he were, he wouldn’t have invaded. Folks who believe Bush lied the US into the Iraq War somehow believe that Putin was afraid of NATO, so invaded Ukraine. A ruler who wants to do a land grab will naturally gravitate to an explanation that will both steel his population for the sacrifices to follow and make the appeasers among the third parties that might stand in his way steer clear of trying to help the object of his ambition. That public explanation/pretext is not, and will never be “I want to become Vladimir the Greater”, true though it might be.

That’s what Hitler did in his annexation of Czechoslovakia. All he wanted was lebensraum. “This is my last territorial demand in Europe”, he said. While unique in wanting land but not population in the Slavic territories he set out to conquer, he matched other conquerors in the false pretexts he announced. The idea is to avoid having all the other powers eventually in your line of fire from forming a coalition against you. He never announced his true intent, which was to conquer until his armies could conquer no further.

[JudgemAll]

Has nothing to do with Korea, all to do with traitors in power out west who are pretending to be opposed to Putin because Trump-Russia.

[JudgemAll]

Yes, Putin is a Hitlerian all or nothing bully. Like Stalin with Zukhov, he could care less his troops are incompetent, he cares they keep pushing and be politically allegiant.

People do not understand how the sociologico-ideological prerogative is more important to tyrants than material consequences. A western power would have long given up the invasion after a 10th of the losses and “scandals” of own troop neglects and civilian abuse.

[Cronos]

so you get your points from the FSB/KGB network?

[Cronos]

And you think Putin’s fake stories about “I’m going to protect the Russians”, oh no, it was “I’m going to de-Nazify Ukraine” oh no, it was “Ukraine is joining an alliance to protect itself from me, so I will invade to teach it a lesson”, oh no, “bio labs”, oh no “Zelenskyy is a Jewish puppet” etc. etc. - you follow Putin’s talking points?

[Cronos]

Putin could so easily have GOT what he wanted by giving Ukraine cheaper oil.

Zelenkyy’s approval rating was 30% and he would have been voted out in the next election with the new guy maybe being pro-Putin (look at Georgia).

Hubris...

[JudgemAll]

I think there is the unconscious at work. Stalin wanted a unilateral glorious soviet initiative in Europe but got his thunder stolen , so to speak, by Hitler initiating the attack earlier as Hitler wanted world domination leadership.

Putin’s demon-father is Stalin pushing him on.

[Zhang Fei]

[I think there is the unconscious at work. Stalin wanted a unilateral glorious soviet initiative in Europe but got his thunder stolen , so to speak, by Hitler initiating the attack earlier as Hitler wanted world domination leadership.

Putin’s demon-father is Stalin pushing him on.]

---

Sargon. Hammurabi. Ramses II (aka Ozymandias). Alexander. They’re all glory hounds. Make your mark on history and be famous for the rest of time. Ideology is just a bus they’re riding to get to their destination.

‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’

[canuck_conservative]

We must wage a war to:
A. Defeat the West
B. Using our military superiority
C. And thus solve our economic problems

Military superiority? That's comedy gold right there!

these incompetents can't even get 100 miles inside Ukraine!

[nathanbedford]

We are shackled to a corpse

… (Attributed to Eric Ludendorff)

That is the specter that must haunt Vladimir Putin as he is confronted with the impotent state of his vaunted military machine. The fiasco in Ukraine has revealed to the world, and more importantly to the Chinese, that the Russian army is hopelessly inept, ponderous, and corrupt.

The Western European nations need no longer have no fear of Putin as a conventional armed force, he cannot make them quake by saber rattling, although he can still intimidate them with nuclear blackmail. It remains to be seen whether the Europeans can muster the will to free themselves of Putin's remaining weapon, energy. If they do, Putin is virtually as powerless as North Korea, except Russia has many more nuclear weapons than North Korea but the range of his influence will be recognized to be limited to his nuclear force.

Knowing that he is now virtually naked before his European enemies, Putin must ask himself, "what about my back?" The answer is, he cannot hope to negotiate with China on anything resembling equal terms. As far as China is concerned, Russia resembles Germany's connection to the Austro-Hungarian Empire in World War I - that of being shackled to a corpse.

Therefore, Putin has much to worry about when it comes to selling his energy and minerals to China because he has no bargaining position left, providing the Western Europeans can stand fast on the energy question. If they do, China will bargain hard and Putin can expect his economy to sink further.

Putin is now at point where he must decide strategically whether to make his peace with the West or to throw himself upon the mercy of the Chinese. He will probably try to accommodate both ends of his continent. He will try to cut the best deal he can out of Ukraine, hoping to keep open the sale of energy to the West while he cuts the best deal he can with China for the price of oil and minerals that go to them.

All this of course is complicated by the state of the world economy, by the shutdowns of the economy in important Chinese port cities allegedly for Covid, perhaps reducing China's demand for Russia's minerals and, longer-term, for Russia's energy. Given the state of the Chinese real estate space, China's economy could crash further, reducing its trade with Russia thus leaving Putin even more with a disintegrating domestic economy.

On the other hand, sanctions against Russia, if they are continued after some sort of cease-fire is worked out in Ukraine, are only as strong as the weakest link and we can certainly foresee that at least a few countries will break free of the sanctions and cut deals to buy energy from Russia. Russia's bargaining power to enter into those deals will turn to a great degree on whether he can rehabilitate his image with some sort of peace deal in Ukraine.

The more he makes an easy peace in Ukraine, the weaker he appears at home, in Western Europe, to the United States and to China. The longer he postpones a deal in Ukraine, the more exposed and vulnerable he personally becomes.

The Chinese are already well aware that Russia is a hollow shell so they may or may not support Putin publicly in his negotiations on Ukraine or they may decide that their ambitions in Taiwan are being adversely affected by Putin's misadventure in Ukraine and cut him loose even as they continue to buy energy and minerals from him. The more they cut him loose, the more they can bargain down the cost of Russian energy.

Putin has no friends in front of him and a very dangerous friend behind.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

Thanks for posting Kamil, his analysis is always profound.

[tlozo]

Thanks for posting informative article.

[dennisw]

put me on yr ping list Thanks. Kamil is the best!