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Elections forecaster Allan Lichtman took a swipe at fellow prognosticator Nate Silver on Wednesday while admitting he was wrong in predicting Vice President Harris would win the presidency. “Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong,” Lichtman wrote on the social platform X, adding that he “will assess the election and the keys,” in an upcoming online live show. His comments come after former President Trump was declared the winner early Wednesday. A historian and American University professor, who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential...

Historian Allan Lichtman got into a shouting match with "The Young Turks" host Cenk Uygur over his "preposterously stupidly wrong" presidential election prediction model. Both appeared on a panel for "Piers Morgan Uncensored" on Tuesday, where Uygur called out Lichtman for his touted "Keys to the White House" prediction model failing to predict President-elect Donald Trump’s victory. "Look, I debated Professor Lichtman before. I told him his theories about the keys are absurd. I was right. He was wrong. I said he'd lose his keys," Uygur began. "No, you were not right, and I was not wrong!" Lichtman interrupted. "And...

An American political historian known as the “Nostradamus” of elections was seemingly at a loss for words early Wednesday when he realized his prediction — that Kamala Harris would win the presidential election — was wrong. Allen Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the 10 elections since 1984, was captured on a livestream repeatedly saying “I don’t get it” as Donald Trump’s landslide victory started to become evident. The 77-year-old professor and his son, Sam, shared their stunned reactions in real time as the results rolled in toward the end of their nearly six-hour coverage of...

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman believes the current polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris sliding against former President Donald Trump are “underestimating Democratic voting strength.” During a Wednesday YouTube livestream, the American University professor, who has predicted Harris would beat Trump in November, suggested that reports of Democrats pulling ahead in mail-in voting in certain states bode well for them. However, Democrats already made up the majority of mail-in voters, and Republicans have reportedly increased their relative shares in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. “The polls in 2016 underestimated Republican voting strength,” Lichtman said. “It’s my view based on what...

Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the 2024 election winner, after determining that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory. The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984. He relies on an unorthodox system - ignoring the polls and pundits - based on what he calls '13 keys' to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok. The model is based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes and even enabled Allan to call Trump's unexpected...

NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November. Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win. Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions: The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has...

The man who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections — including that Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton — has some thoughts about the recent debate. Chill out, Democrats. And maybe stop listening to the talking heads on TV. From Lichtman: “All of these pundits and pollsters, and panelists that you see on all the cable channels and all the networks, have no track records in predicting elections. And if they come on and they claim they know how this debate is going to affect elections, they have no idea. It’s sports talk radio. It may be...

I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden. Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts. According to the Daily Mail:A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong'...

The "Keys to the White House" are being handed out, predicting President Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump. Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election - and in many cases, it proves to be accurate. Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question...

Politics aside, if you study the data trends, the 13 “Keys to the White House, ” created by analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman, have demonstrated an uncanny knack for calling U.S. presidential elections. There have been a few hiccups, where it called Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000, with Gore winning the popular vote and Bush winning the Electoral College. When a reverse phenomenon occurred in 2016, it correctly called Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, with Trump winning the Electoral College and Clinton winning the popular vote. The key’s predictions now focus solely on the...

For many years, history professor Allan Lichtman's has gained fame predicting Presidential Elections through a Key Question model that has remained consistent since 1980. Lichtman has published his prediction methodology in a Wikipedia entry entitled, The Keys to The White House, which he claims has predicted the winner every time, with exception of his error predicting Al Gore's victory over Bush.  Before the 2016 Election, Lichtman predicted his model would have Trump win, but the devil in his model is how he interprets the facts plugged into the model.  I analyzed his analysis in a 2016 FR vanity: Professor...

The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016. blah blah blah

It is unlikely, but now at least possible, that Nancy Pelosi will be the next president of the United States. It will not happen by election in 2020, but by succession to the White House this year. Some of you might recall that after the near assassination of Ronald Reagan, chaos ensued in the White House. Secretary of State Alexander Haig told reporters, “Constitutionally, gentlemen, you have the president, the vice president and the secretary of state, in that order.” He added, “As for now, I am in control here, in the White House, pending the return of the vice...

Professor behind Trump victory prediction now forecasts impeachment Posted on April 14, 2017 by Editor // 0 Comments American University history professor Allan J. Lichtman was among the few in a crowd of intellectuals and pundits to correctly call Donald Trump’s electoral victory last November. Just because he predicted a Trump administration, however, does not mean he expects it to be successful. A new book by Lichtman, set to be released next week, lays out his “case for impeachment” and conclusion that “it is not a question of if President Trump will be impeached, but a question of when.”

Do a LexisNexis search, and you’ll find that “Trump” and some variant of “impeach” have already appeared in 37 newspaper headlines. (Duplicates are at play, yes, but let’s not get in the way of a striking statistic . ) Documentarian Michael Moore has vowed to look for the first impeachment opportunity and do what he can to help spur it along. Law professor Christopher Lewis Peterson of the University of Utah has written a paper arguing that Donald Trump can technically be impeached immediately, provided that Trump University is judged to be as fraudulent as it looks. Allan Lichtman, the...

Last month, the man who's tried to turn vote prediction into a science predicted a Trump win. Allan J. Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, said Democrats would not be able to hold on to the White House. In the intervening weeks, the campaign was rocked by a series of events. The release of the Access Hollywood tape obtained by The Washington Post was followed by accusations from a growing list of women of various improprieties on Trump's part, ranging from verbal abuse and harassment to outright sexual assault. Fix founder Chris Cillizza named Trump the winner of the...

The professor, in an earlier forecast, had predicted that Donald Trump will be the winner but he admits now that this election is testing his module. America is at the crossroads of an acrimonious election as the two candidates #Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton battle each other. As per the latest reports and Gallup polls, Hillary is set to win. She appears to be heading for victory, especially after beating Trump in all 3 debates. In such circumstances, the prediction of Professor Allan Lichtman that Donald Trump will be the winner has now to be taken with a pinch of...

(Reuters) - The forces influencing the U.S. presidential election favor Republican nominee Donald Trump to win the popular vote - but even proven prediction models face "the most difficult election by far to predict accurately," a political forecaster with a three-decade winning streak said on Wednesday. History Professor Allan Lichtman of American University in Washington has accurately predicted the popular result in presidential elections since Republican President Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic challenger Walter Mondale in 1984. Although the number of ballots cast by voters for each candidate counts, it does not ultimately determine who takes the White House. In a...

For the last few days, the news has spread about history professor Allan Lichtman's prediction that Trump would win the election.  Trump retweeted it today and many FReepers have commented on the the original WaPo story.  Lichtman claims his model has accurately predicted the POTUS winner for 30 years.  Being curious how the professor came up with his conclusion, I searched and I found his methodology in a Wikipedia entry entitled, The Keys to The White House. Now when I listened to Professor Lichtman's analysis in a Washington Post video, it immediately raised some red flags about the guy's legitimacy...

Full title: Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984. When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.