Posted on 09/05/2024 5:48:24 AM PDT by Red Badger
Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the 2024 election winner, after determining that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory.
The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.
He relies on an unorthodox system - ignoring the polls and pundits - based on what he calls '13 keys' to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes and even enabled Allan to call Trump's unexpected 2016 victory a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys to the New York Times, Allan said: 'They are 13 big picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys include: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate needs to lose six of them in order to be declared a loser under the model.
As of last month, she was down only three: having a Party Mandate/Midterm gains, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma.'
Two other keys were looking 'shaky' weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with candidates - incumbent and challenger charisma.
Allan said the White House party gained House seats between midterm elections - stating the Democrats did better than expected in 2022 despite them still losing House seats - meaning the Midterm gains key is false.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Allan’s ‘13 Keys’ to the White House:
KEY 1 Party Mandate / Midterm gains
KEY 2 No Primary Contest
KEY 3 Incumbent seeking reelection
KEY 4 Third Party challenge
KEY 5 Short-Term Economy
KEY 6 Long-Term Economy
KEY 7 Major Policy Change
KEY 8 Social Unrest
KEY 9 Scandal
KEY 10 Foreign/Military Failure
KEY 11 Foreign/Military Success
KEY 12 Incumbent Charisma
KEY 13 Challenger Charisma
The deep state was caught off guard in 2016. No such inattention will ever happen again regarding Trump. They won’t let him win.
Is he factoring in fraud?
If she wins I will also address her as the Whore of Babylon.
...”They won’t let him win.”...
One way or ... another.....................
I doubt it..............
Lichtman is Deep State.
Well, he should know then.
I agree and have been getting flak for saying it.
Maybe, maybe not.
But he does do what he’s told, doesn’t he.
Meanwhile, a tweet...
Alex Phillips
@ThatAlexWoman
Michel Barnier parachuted in as PM of France
The magic “recount” in Germany stopping AfD by changing a single seat due to a ‘system anomale’
Before that, let’s not forget the antics in Italy and Greece where democratically elected leaders were replaced with EU technocrats
The machine doesn’t even try to hide the fact anymore that instead of rigging elections, it just ignores them
8:02 AM · Sep 5, 2024
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37.7K
Views
Is he one of the 51 ex “Intelligence officers” too?
Hey even Nate Silver is now predicting a Trump win.
Except Trump WILL win!
“I agree and have been getting flak for saying it.”
People want to have hope. I’m just going by what I see, and I can’t imagine that the deep state will allow a Trump victory.
Great reminder.
Mark Twain — ‘If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it.’
Is he one of the 51 ex “Intelligence officers” too?
Ha! Great point ... almost lost some coffee, over that post.
:-)
If Trump wins then this fella will be proven a “false prophet” then
But will he be allowed to assume the office?
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