Allan’s ‘13 Keys’ to the White House:
KEY 1 Party Mandate / Midterm gains
KEY 2 No Primary Contest
KEY 3 Incumbent seeking reelection
KEY 4 Third Party challenge
KEY 5 Short-Term Economy
KEY 6 Long-Term Economy
KEY 7 Major Policy Change
KEY 8 Social Unrest
KEY 9 Scandal
KEY 10 Foreign/Military Failure
KEY 11 Foreign/Military Success
KEY 12 Incumbent Charisma
KEY 13 Challenger Charisma
The deep state was caught off guard in 2016. No such inattention will ever happen again regarding Trump. They won’t let him win.
Is he factoring in fraud?
If she wins I will also address her as the Whore of Babylon.
Is he one of the 51 ex “Intelligence officers” too?
Hey even Nate Silver is now predicting a Trump win.
If Trump wins then this fella will be proven a “false prophet” then
He also predicted the White Sox would win the World Series.
Lichtman is a RAT operative and I believe he hasn’t been right all the time as he claims. Kamala is going down, which is nothing new for her.
This is crazy, it’s outrageous, it’s deepstate, it’s, it’s....
Ok, I tried to care. It’s just one guy saying Harris will win.
There were no scandals in the old USSR, Red China, and Castro's Cuba either. When the mainstream media is controlled by the government, dissenters are arrested and jailed, and the majority of sheeple reflexively believe what the telescreen tells them, there will be no scandals.
Didn’t he already predict Biden would win the 2024 election? I’d call that a fail.
Lichtman’s 13 keys are mostly subjective. e.g. he says each of the two keys pertaining to the economy point to the candidate of the incumbent party (Harris) retaining the White House. But, public opinion polls indicate that, by a large majority, people think the economy is performing badly, and that the challenger (Trump) has higher marks on being able to handle the economy.
Ray Fair’s model (also not a poll-based model) is specifically an economic model, with objective inputs and calibrated over a very long period of time. Fair’s model points to a popular vote win by Trump (which, given the tilt in the Electoral College, translates into a comfortable win in the electoral college).
Nostradamus died in 1566. Dead men do not talk.
This is pure BS. No matter who conjures this up.
If Kamala steals the election, blood will flow.
First, his record is no better than mine, so I am unimpressed. Second and more importantly, this is nothing but propaganda.
I totally trust the word of a man whose books include “The Case for Impeachment” (of Trump all the way back in 2017), “Repairing American Democracy After Trump,” “ White Protestant Nation,” and “Repeal the Second Amendment.” No agenda at all. /s
This gives it away. Either he was in on the steal, or he was wrong.
Nostradamus was a fraud.
The problem is the 2020 election. Trump carried GA, for example, if the 13,000 votes that have no voters are removed from consideration. Equivalent cheating in 4 other states adds to the error. He did not ‘call’ 2020, it was a coincidence he is claiming for a ‘win’ that was actually a loss.
Alan Lichtman! is very annoying and frequently on TV, as they like his schtik.
“Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman