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1 posted on 09/05/2024 5:48:24 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger

Allan’s ‘13 Keys’ to the White House:

KEY 1 Party Mandate / Midterm gains

KEY 2 No Primary Contest

KEY 3 Incumbent seeking reelection

KEY 4 Third Party challenge

KEY 5 Short-Term Economy

KEY 6 Long-Term Economy

KEY 7 Major Policy Change

KEY 8 Social Unrest

KEY 9 Scandal

KEY 10 Foreign/Military Failure

KEY 11 Foreign/Military Success

KEY 12 Incumbent Charisma

KEY 13 Challenger Charisma


2 posted on 09/05/2024 5:50:14 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger

The deep state was caught off guard in 2016. No such inattention will ever happen again regarding Trump. They won’t let him win.


3 posted on 09/05/2024 5:50:30 AM PDT by brownsfan (It's going to take real, serious, hard times to wake the American public.)
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To: Red Badger

Is he factoring in fraud?


4 posted on 09/05/2024 5:50:47 AM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966 )
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To: Red Badger

If she wins I will also address her as the Whore of Babylon.


5 posted on 09/05/2024 5:51:24 AM PDT by Tom Tetroxide
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To: Red Badger

Is he one of the 51 ex “Intelligence officers” too?
Hey even Nate Silver is now predicting a Trump win.


13 posted on 09/05/2024 6:06:59 AM PDT by SmokingJoe ( )
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To: Red Badger

If Trump wins then this fella will be proven a “false prophet” then


19 posted on 09/05/2024 6:19:24 AM PDT by Bob434
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To: Red Badger

He also predicted the White Sox would win the World Series.


21 posted on 09/05/2024 6:21:58 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Red Badger

Lichtman is a RAT operative and I believe he hasn’t been right all the time as he claims. Kamala is going down, which is nothing new for her.


22 posted on 09/05/2024 6:24:38 AM PDT by kenmcg (ti hi o)
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To: Red Badger

This is crazy, it’s outrageous, it’s deepstate, it’s, it’s....

Ok, I tried to care. It’s just one guy saying Harris will win.


24 posted on 09/05/2024 6:29:29 AM PDT by Roadrunner383
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To: Red Badger
The scandal key - Allan's self-professed favorite - has been considered true in his eyes as he explained how Republicans have been desperately attempting to pin a scandal on Biden but nothing has ever stuck.

There were no scandals in the old USSR, Red China, and Castro's Cuba either. When the mainstream media is controlled by the government, dissenters are arrested and jailed, and the majority of sheeple reflexively believe what the telescreen tells them, there will be no scandals.

25 posted on 09/05/2024 6:30:59 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (Fake news, fake election, fake president, real tyranny.)
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To: Red Badger

Didn’t he already predict Biden would win the 2024 election? I’d call that a fail.


26 posted on 09/05/2024 6:38:37 AM PDT by FreedomForce
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To: Red Badger

Lichtman’s 13 keys are mostly subjective. e.g. he says each of the two keys pertaining to the economy point to the candidate of the incumbent party (Harris) retaining the White House. But, public opinion polls indicate that, by a large majority, people think the economy is performing badly, and that the challenger (Trump) has higher marks on being able to handle the economy.

Ray Fair’s model (also not a poll-based model) is specifically an economic model, with objective inputs and calibrated over a very long period of time. Fair’s model points to a popular vote win by Trump (which, given the tilt in the Electoral College, translates into a comfortable win in the electoral college).

https://www.pollyvote.com/pollyvote-election-forecasting/models/retrospective-models/fairs-presidential-vote-equation/


31 posted on 09/05/2024 6:56:16 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Red Badger

Nostradamus died in 1566. Dead men do not talk.

This is pure BS. No matter who conjures this up.

If Kamala steals the election, blood will flow.


32 posted on 09/05/2024 6:56:46 AM PDT by Texas Fossil (Texas is not about where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind and Attitude.)
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To: Red Badger

First, his record is no better than mine, so I am unimpressed. Second and more importantly, this is nothing but propaganda.


35 posted on 09/05/2024 7:07:24 AM PDT by GrumpyOldGuy
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To: Red Badger

I totally trust the word of a man whose books include “The Case for Impeachment” (of Trump all the way back in 2017), “Repairing American Democracy After Trump,” “ White Protestant Nation,” and “Repeal the Second Amendment.” No agenda at all. /s


37 posted on 09/05/2024 7:14:39 AM PDT by subaru
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To: Red Badger
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.

This gives it away. Either he was in on the steal, or he was wrong.

38 posted on 09/05/2024 7:17:34 AM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a Momma deuce)
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To: Red Badger

Nostradamus was a fraud.


39 posted on 09/05/2024 7:18:26 AM PDT by Omnivore-Dan
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To: Red Badger

The problem is the 2020 election. Trump carried GA, for example, if the 13,000 votes that have no voters are removed from consideration. Equivalent cheating in 4 other states adds to the error. He did not ‘call’ 2020, it was a coincidence he is claiming for a ‘win’ that was actually a loss.


40 posted on 09/05/2024 7:18:47 AM PDT by RideForever (Damn, another dangling par .....)
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To: Red Badger

Alan Lichtman! is very annoying and frequently on TV, as they like his schtik.


42 posted on 09/05/2024 7:21:13 AM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14/12 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15/12 - 1030am - Obama team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: Red Badger

“Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman


43 posted on 09/05/2024 7:23:44 AM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14/12 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15/12 - 1030am - Obama team scouts photo-op locations.)
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