[38special]

I agree and have been getting flak for saying it.

[brownsfan]

“I agree and have been getting flak for saying it.”

People want to have hope. I’m just going by what I see, and I can’t imagine that the deep state will allow a Trump victory.

[Rockingham]

The problem with Lichtman’s keys is that there is a subjective element to them, no allowance for keys to be strong or weak, or for changes during a campaign. Moreover, Lichtman’s scheme is by its nature less a predictive model than a compilation of after the fact explanations for the results of past elections.

And how does one address issues like vote fraud, systemic media bias, fraudulent economic data, candidate and campaign quality, or unexpected events? In the last year, Lichtman has gone from "Biden can't lose" to "Harris can't lose." Oops. All it took for Trump to defeat Biden was one debate. Perhaps history will repeat itself when Harris and Trump debate.

Finally, I do not like Lichtman. I am simply not inclined to regard a smug, smarmy liberal Democrat professor with a bad toupee as an unimpeachable and always right election forecaster. As a now old GOP political hack with many election campaigns behind me, I look to four things in election forecasting: candidate quality and experience; campaign strength and skill; public sentiment as measured by reliable polls; and events with political impact.

This year, I see Trump winning if the election is not upended by events and stolen as it was in 2020.