<p>Well, there's a reason states have actual primary elections and caucuses rather than relying on public opinion polls and conventional wisdom. The public can be fickle, and races can turn around quickly.</p>
<p>Instead of preparing to crown former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean the next Democratic presidential nominee, as most people expected going into the Iowa caucuses, Democratic voters now are moving strongly toward John Kerry, the Massachusetts senator who scored strong victories in Iowa and now New Hampshire.</p>