Free Republic

Russia’s winter offensive is grinding to a bloody halt in the ruins of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Yes, the Russians have occupied most of the devastated city. But it’s cost them thousands of their best troops. Having defeated the Russian offensive without committing its 20 or so newly-raised brigades, Ukraine is poised to launch a counteroffensive—perhaps as soon as the spring mud finally dries up. If there’s a big potential spoiler, it’s the Russian air force. For most of the first 14 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Soviet-vintage Ukrainian air-defenses have kept at bay Russia’s hundreds...

The Russian air force had deployed three times as many fighters and attack planes as the Ukrainian air force had in its entire inventory. Ukraine’s air defenses were disorganized and, in the case of certain key long-range radars, sitting out in the open where the Russians easily could target them. The Russians had a firepower advantage. The Ukrainians had the same advantages every defender possesses over an invader: motivation, simpler logistics, familiar terrain. Either side might’ve prevailed—the Russians by dominating the air, the Ukrainians by preventing the Russians from dominating the air. We know how it turned out. The Russian...