Posted on 04/30/2023 6:44:09 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
Russia’s winter offensive is grinding to a bloody halt in the ruins of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Yes, the Russians have occupied most of the devastated city. But it’s cost them thousands of their best troops.
Having defeated the Russian offensive without committing its 20 or so newly-raised brigades, Ukraine is poised to launch a counteroffensive—perhaps as soon as the spring mud finally dries up.
If there’s a big potential spoiler, it’s the Russian air force. For most of the first 14 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Soviet-vintage Ukrainian air-defenses have kept at bay Russia’s hundreds of modern fighter-bombers.
But Kyiv’s old air-defense batteries are running out of missiles. If the surface-to air missiles run out before Ukraine’s foreign allies can deliver substantial numbers of new air-defense systems, the steel barrier that has blocked Russian air-strikes finally could fall.
Russia’s Sukhoi fighter-bombers then could range across Ukraine at altitudes—say, 10,000 feet or higher—that are favorable to their relatively crude sensors and munitions.
Russian “attack aircraft fleets have proven in Syria that they can be brutally effective against fixed defensive positions, cities and infrastructure targets if they are able to operate freely at medium altitude,” Justin Bronk explained in a new report for the Virginia-based think-tank CNA.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Man...that's some serious thinking right there.
Don’t know how this got past the censors. May not be up for long
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvwDdhZgvG0
The longer ranged higher altitude SAMs force planes to fly low. This is what happened during the Falklands. The RN's longer ranged SAMs forced the Argentian airforce in to low level attacks.
Flying low means running into all the low altitude AA systems, Strella/Igla, and British Javelin SAMS, light cannons and small arms. Ukraine's low level air defense has shot down and damaged lots of Russian aircraft, aircraft which for Russia are practically irreplaceable. Ukraine had some ability to make good on its losses by getting left over MiGs and Sukhoi's from former Russian client states.
While Russia has precision guided weapons, they need precision targeting to work. Russia has shown its targeting is not up to the same standard as Ukraine or NATO. Russian warplanes tend to get used to drop unguided bombs, less accurately than their NATO counterparts.
Given the limits of targeting, the limited precision munitions effectiveness, and the risk of losing irreplaceable airplanes, there is a clear limit on the risks versus benefits the Russian air force can take. Using drones and cruise weapons is less costly and risky alternative to using aircraft.
It will end badly for Ukraine; all thanks to Joe and the neocons.
Well, on the bright side, they managed to burn up so much ordnance that the US won’t be able to defend us when the Chinese or whoever, come.
Better check the latest. Russia is performing a massive air and naval attack on Ukraine. Most air defense knocked out and Russian bombers and cruise missile attack ongoing.
Forbes propaganda is contradictory
Russian Arms are bad - but 30 year old soviet air defense systems somehow have been very effective against “modern Russian fighter-bombers.”
Fighter bombers are “modern” but have “relatively crude sensors and munitions”
Air defence systems were repelling missile attacks in the early hours on Monday in the Kyiv region, local authorities said, after air raid alerts were issued throughout all of Ukraine by emergency services.
“Air defences are at work!” Kyiv’s regional administration wrote on the Telegram messaging app, after reports of explosions heard in the region, according to Reuters.
“Keep calm! Stay in shelters until the air alarm goes off!”
Ukrainian media also reported blasts in the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions. Reuters was unable to independently verify the reports of blasts.
the bombers are using smart bombs launched from a distance to avoid air defense. Russia needs to ramp up its Jdams and cruise missile production for the Use offensive.
Russian aircraft did a lot of damage this weekend to Ukrainian rail terminals and troop concentrations. Did Ukraine shoot any down??? If so, I missed the report.
Running out of fighting men, scouring the Earth for artillery shells, and begging the world to send more heavy weapons is now defined as “winning.”
We have a nation’s leader confident of victory while at the same time warning the country does not have enough weapons to succeed in its long-promised counteroffensive.
Why doesn’t Russia take the “Wild Weasel” approach?
The Duran covered this on Friday. People (including the Duran) completely missed the Russkie strategy, which was to attack the energy grid just enough to have the Ukes have to defend it and use up their air defense missiles.
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