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It’s very early, but the bellwether races of IN-2 and KY-6 look good for the GOP so far. IN-2′s Jackie Walorksi is over 60 percent with 4 percent in (all GOP counties, but she’s running even with Dan Coats, who’s wiping out Ellsworth in the state’s U.S. Senate race), and Andy Barr is running even with Chandler in KY-6. I picked both of these districts to flip parties, and if that happens, it’s a sign that +60 or more is the new baseline.

Republican Rand Paul, a tea party favorite, has been elected to the Senate from Kentucky in his first run for office. The son of libertarian congressman Ron Paul defeated Democrat Jack Conway. Republicans have captured the first of what they hope will be several Senate seats that were held by Democrats with the victory of Dan Coats in Indiana. The veteran lawmaker returns to Washington in the seat that was held by retiring Democrat Evan Bayh. South Carolina Republican Jim DeMint, as expected, has won re-election to the Senate, defeating Democrat Alvin Greene.

Breaking On Air: Both are projected by Fox News to win.

Indiana Results Live reports from everybody, please. ESPECIALLY STATEHOUSE RACES. The trends here could signal what's happening everywhere else!!

The Pundit Press Editorial Board has just projected Senator Dan Coats (R) the winner in Indiana's Senatorial election to replace the retiring Evan Bayh. Coats previously served two terms in the 1990's, after he was appointed to replace then-Senator Ben Quayle after the Bush-Quayle ticket routed the Democratic opposition in the 1988 Presidential election.

Late last week the premier polling site, FiveThirtyEight, tweeted somberly: “I don't think people fully comprehend how scary the generic ballot numbers are for Democrats.” The biggest sway away from Democrats is coming from independent voters. The latest Gallup results give Republicans the broadest spread over Democrats in the history of generic-ballot polling. It’s also the first time the GOP has hit the magic 50 percent in the history of Gallup’s generic ballot. "For independent voters, it's like the rock-paper-scissors game,” says Democratic strategist Steve McMahon. “They want bi-partisan solutions and smart policy. But right now, a 'no' to more...

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly is taking an unusual jab at his party's leadership in a campaign ad that refers to climate change legislation as "Nancy Pelosi's energy tax." The two-term Democrat is pulling a page from Republican strategists in trying to distance himself from policies that have some voters wary. Brian Vargus, a political science professor at Indiana University-Purdue University at Indianapolis, said he doesn't think Donnelly's criticism of Pelosi will mean much to voters. "Much of the leadership of the Republican Party has already realized that most people in Indiana don't even know who Nancy...

Democrats in Indiana have tried to paint Dan Coats as a lobbyist interloper while Brad Ellsworth has campaigned on the hope that Indiana voters have a case of collective amnesia. The latest Rasmussen survey of likely voters shows that strategy succeeding as well as anyone could have predicted. Coats has a 21-point lead over Ellsworth, who barely makes out of the twenties: Indiana still has the look of a likely Republican Senate pickup, with former Senator Dan Coats remaining comfortably ahead of his Democratic opponent Brad EllsworthThe latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Coats...

With lofty rhetoric now being followed up by incompetent governance, by 2012, the electorate may warm up to somebody boring who knows what he's doing. Therein lies the potential appeal of Daniels, a mostly bald, 5'7", Midwestern governor who is the last person one would think of as a contender in the modern media age. The buzz surrounding Daniels increased this week with the publication of Andrew Ferguson's excellent profile in the Weekly Standard. In the piece, Ferguson recounts how Daniels campaigned for governor driving around the state on a Harley Davidson, sleeping in the homes of Indiana families who...

Attorney Todd Young and Dr. Larry Bucshon will be the GOP nominees in a pair of top pickup opportunities in southern Indiana. Young defeated a field that included former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.) to win the nod to face Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.), while Bucshon survived a scare from a Tea Party candidate an will be the party’s candidate in Rep. Brad Ellsworth’s (R-Ind.) district. Buschon led 33-29 with 94 percent of precincts, while Young led activist Travis Hankins 34-32 with 99 percent of precincts reporting. Sodrel was third, with 31 percent. In a cycle that features many former members...

Here's the official site for returns...anyone have a better one?

In Indiana's Republican primary for U.S. Senate, conservative insurgents got more votes than the GOP establishment. There was only one small problem: the party establishment had just one candidate in the race while the conservatives split their votes between four.

Eight-term Rep. Mark Souder will announce his resignation Tuesday after it came to light that he was conducting an affair with a female staffer who worked in his district office, Fox News has learned. Multiple senior House sources indicated that the extent of the affair would have landed Souder before the House Ethics Committee. Elected as a family values conservative as part of the Republican revolution in 1994, Souder survived a tough re-election challenge in 2008 and survived a contested primary two weeks ago.

Can Dan Coats win?? I know he's up in the polls, but he hasn't lived in Indiana for years, and even made jokes about it. Also, the Dems in Indy have been hammering Coats on his lobbying activities, which could definitely strike a chord in the anti-Washington, anti-elites environment. Ellsworth is a partisan Democrat who voted for Obamacare, but he is pro-gun and pro-life. Any Indy freepers care to disagree with me?

INDIANAPOLIS -- Former Sen. Dan Coats surged back four other Republican Senate hopefuls to clinch the party's nomination Tuesday night. GOP leaders had high hopes that Coats, a senator for about eight years in the 1990s, would be a shoo-in for the nomination. National Republicans have backed him since he launched his campaign in February, shortly before Democrat Evan Bayh made his surprise announcement that he wouldn't seek a third term.

With half of the precincts reporting in the GOP Senate primary race, former Indiana senator Dan Coats is preparing to celebrate. Coats shot to an early lead and is holding strong while his opponents Marlin Stutzman and John Hostettler are splitting the rest of the votes. The Coats campaign has a small ballroom at the downtown Indianapolis Marriott hotel booked until midnight. Coats has already practiced his victory speech on the podium at the hotel. But the Republican Senate hopeful still has to beat four other candidates in Tuesday's primary election. State legislator Marlin Stutzman is said to have the...

New poll in the IN Senate race's GOP primary! Done yesterday. Out today. It was commissioned by SC Senator Jim DeMint's PAC...the Senate Conservatives Fund. Wenzel Strategies Research out of Columbus OH did the work. Here are the results: Undecided 30% Dan Coats 28% John Hostettler 18% Marlin Stutzman 18% Richard Behney 3% Don Bates Jr. 3% The survey was of 801 like Republican primary voters...again all spoken to yesterday over the phone. The margin of error for this poll is plus/minus 3.43%. REPORTER INTERPRETATION: Coats...the best known candidate is out in front outside the margin of error. But...and this...

Former Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) is running for the Senate much like he ran for the House: heavy on the social-issue conservatism and light -- very light -- on campaign funds. Hostettler raised just $37,000 in the first quarter of 2010, according a filing in the Senate public records office, and began April with just $9,700. His first-quarter receipts amounted to less than a tenth of what front-running Republican Dan Coats raised and 1/17th of what presumptive Democratic nominee Brad Ellsworth raised. Unlike the way he handled his House campaigns, Hostettler is now accepting contributions from political action committees. But...

Time’s up conservatives. We must now unite and we must now rally to save Indiana from the Democrats. The time is now. There can be no more waiting. For months conservatives have sat on the sidelines in the Indiana Senate race. The NRSC dragged former Senator Dan Coats from North Carolina to Indiana and put him into the race. They said he would be warmly re-embraced by the Indiana conservative grassroots. They said he could raise between $500,000.00 and a million dollars. They said he was a perfect fit. Now, like in Florida, we must save the NRSC from itself...

WASHINGTON -- Former Sen. Dan Coats, running for the open Indiana Senate seat that will be vacated by Evan Bayh (D), said he is running out of a “call of duty,” because he said he believes the current “radical” administration, is “moving this country rapidly toward a European Socialist style of government.” “Wasn’t it Margaret Thatcher that said the whole thing wrong with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money?” Coats, 66, said in an interview here with First Read. Asked if he sees this administration as “moving toward socialism,” Coats said, “I do. I do....