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Economist Gary Shilling predicts that not only will President Donald Trump win the seemingly endless trade war with China, but in the long run the U.S. will be better off. “People say nobody wins trade wars. Yeah, in the short-run you don’t, but in the long-run…the U.S. will be better off,” Shilling recently told Business Insider. “When you’ve got plenty of supply in the world, and I think you do. It’s the buyer that has the upper hand not the seller. The buyer has the ultimate power and who’s the buyer? U.S. is the buyer, China is the seller,” he...

STAGE one of Saudi Arabia’s plan—or perhaps hope—to restructure the oil market is taking longer than expected. By refusing to rein in production while prices fell, the Saudis permitted a big surplus to grow and served notice on higher-cost rivals (Russia, Venezuela, American shale-oil producers) that they would not prop up other people’s profit margins at the expense of their own market share. That signal has been weakened by the growing amount of oil in storage, which is absorbing most of the glut. World oil stocks rose about 265m barrels last year and Société Générale, a French bank, reckons they...

http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/economics/2007/12/17/Why-Oil-Prices-Will-Drop

Shane Ferro February. 17, 2015Gary Shilling thinks the price of oil is going way lower. The economist and financial analyst wrote an op-ed for Bloomberg View discussing the various reasons why he thinks the price could get down to $10-20 per barrel. Basically, supply keeps increasing while demand is shrinking. Here's an excerpt that pretty clearly lays it out: U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now. Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs...

At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why.

GARY SHILLING: Home Prices Will Plummet 20% From Here Mamta Badkar May 14, 2012Despite growing consensus that it is now cheaper to buy a home than rent one, Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. says by previous standards home prices are still high relative to rents. In his latest editorial in The Wall Street Journal, Shilling writes while home prices have fallen 34 percent since their peak in early 2006, they are not cheap if prices continue to fall: "But even if homeownership was cheaper than renting, as some claim, buying a house now would be a...

GARY SHILLING: Here's Why The US Is About To Plunge Into A New Recession Simone Foxman April 20, 2012, 3:48 PM Last week, Gary Shilling wrote a four-part series for Bloomberg View on why the U.S. economy is on the fast track to a brand new recession this year. While he pointed to various data points and recounted a number of anecdotes to prove his point, Shilling's argument was simple: the consumer strength we saw earlier this year was fleeting and highly accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of more quantitative easing are the only things propping...