American spy chiefs are offering $250,000 in prize money for a competition that will test how successfully someone can predict future unknowns such as political election results or missile tests. The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity [IARPA], which sits within the office of America’s top intelligence official, is behind the challenge, which is designed to improve forecasting techniques. Participants will be asked more than 300 questions about the outcomes of various issues across a nine-month period. The winner will collect $153,000, with smaller prizes to runner-ups. Sample questions listed include “Which political party will win the most seats during the...