Free Republic

THE BOUNCE HITS THE ELECTORAL VOTE  Bush 47.5% – 246 EV | Kerry 49.8% – 292 EV EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 216| Kerry 250| Toss 72 July 20, 2004 Florida finally slips over into the Kerry column after weeks of hanging out with Bush despite the popular vote swing toward Kerry. But, as predicted last week, the Edwards bounce has arrived in the electoral college, where Kerry now leads 292-246. You'll also notice a change in the above graphic. Despite the convenience (and now cliché) of referring to "Red States" and "Blue States", I've...

KERRY SURGE FALLS SHORT  Bush 47.77% - 274 | Kerry 48.52% - 264 June 1, 2004 From the May 11 to the May 18 Composite Polls, there was a net change of 4.13% in favor of Kerry, taking him from a deficit of 1.41% to a lead of 2.72% -- the highest lead for either candidate since I began tracking the numbers on March 8. Since the Composite Poll methodology constrains weekly swings by factoring in the previous week's composite result, this should be seen as a significant swing to Kerry. That week, Kerry led by 5 in the...

Turn Toward Kerry  Bush 46.83 | Kerry 49.45May 18, 2004The polls are heading Kerry's way, as he gets his biggest lead this week in the Composite Poll. Bush maintains a very slight lead in the Electoral Vote -- held up by state polling. If Arkansas falls into the Kerry column, we'd have a tied race, and the House of Representatives would supplant the Electoral College. Now, to the data.This Week’s Polls Zogby Newsweek CNN/Time Rasmussen Research Iowa Electronic Market Last Week’s Poll FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics CNN / USA Today / Gallup Rasmussen Research Quinnipiac University Poll Iowa Electronic Market...

Stable Race, Bush Still Leads  Bush 49.00 | Kerry 47.59May 11, 2004Despite dire warnings from the pundits about Bush's electability after the USA Today Gallup Poll showed Bush's approval ratings relatively unchanged since February, the race remains tight, with Bush maintaining a slight lead over Kerry in this week's Composite Poll.  Bush leads the Composite Popular Vote 49.0% to 49.6%, and he leads the Electoral Vote Prediction 290-248.   When eliminating the Battleground states (which are in the "Lean" category where the current projected margin for any candidate is less than 6%), Bush has the advantage in states with 182 electoral...

PRE-AD BLITZ  Bush 49.46 | Kerry 48.36May 4, 2004As John Kerry readies his $25 million ad buy targeted at 19 states, the race remains close.  The only difference from 2000 is that New Mexico slips into Bush’s column.The polls still show continued weakness for President Bush.  He doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls.  That’s not good for a President that is well known by the electorate.  At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined, and now he gets his chance to define himself – a $25 million chance.  Without allocating the undecided vote, the composite...