FederalReview Composite Poll and E.V. Prediction, May 18, 2004, Bush 46.83%-275 | Kerry 49.45-263

Federal Review ^ | May 18, 2004 | Federal Review

[Darth Reagan]

Turn Toward Kerry  Bush 46.83 | Kerry 49.45
May 18, 2004

The polls are heading Kerry's way, as he gets his biggest lead this week in the Composite Poll. Bush maintains a very slight lead in the Electoral Vote -- held up by state polling. If Arkansas falls into the Kerry column, we'd have a tied race, and the House of Representatives would supplant the Electoral College.

Now, to the data.

This Week’s Polls
Zogby
Newsweek
CNN/Time
Rasmussen Research
Iowa Electronic Market

Last Week’s Poll
FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics
CNN / USA Today / Gallup
Rasmussen Research
Quinnipiac University Poll
Iowa Electronic Market

Bush State Gains
None

  Kerry State Gains
New Mexico
Wisconsin

Composite History

Date	Bush	Kerry
9-Mar	49.0	49.1
16-Mar	50.3	48.4
23-Mar	49.2	48.6
30-Mar	49.8	47.5
6-Apr	49.0	49.3
13-Apr	49.0	49.2
20-Apr	49.83	47.71
27-Apr	50.28	48.14
4-May	49.46	48.36
11-May	49.00	47.59
18-May	46.83	49.45

Electoral Vote Prediction History

	With Toss Ups			Without Toss Ups
Date	Bush	Kerry	Toss	Bush	Kerry
9-Mar	133	189	216	247	291
16-Mar	199	86	253	338	200
23-Mar	184	110	244	338	200
30-Mar	194	110	234	335	203
6-Apr	198	182	158	278	260
13-Apr	198	199	141	299	239
20-Apr	243	195	100	328	210
27-Apr	205	178	155	321	217
4-May	192	178	168	283	255
11-May	182	108	248	290	248
18-May	177	179	182	275	263

The States
Margin of Lead
 (+Bush | -Kerry)
Battlegrounds in Green

Alabama-19.77%
Alaska-26.29%
Arizona-4.60%
Arkansas-2.72%
California--6.06%
Colorado-7.66%
Connecticut--20.10%
Delaware--16.52%
District of Columbia--81.01%
Florida-0.61%
Georgia-9.10%
Hawaii--22.85%
Idaho-37.01%
Illinois--7.40%
Indiana-14.20%
Iowa--3.12%
Kansas-17.41%
Kentucky-12.01%
Louisiana-11.72%
Maine--9.46%
Maryland--9.87%
Massachusetts--24.52%
Michigan--2.17%
Minnesota--10.14%
Mississippi-14.13%
Missouri-2.31%
Montana-21.19%
Nebraska-25.50%
Nevada-5.80%
New Hampshire--1.86%
New Jersey--6.37%
New Mexico--1.18%
New York--18.14%
North Carolina-8.07%
North Dakota-24.78%
Ohio--3.78%
Oklahoma-19.49%
Oregon--0.14%
Pennsylvania-0.44%
Rhode Island--33.60%
South Carolina-12.94%
South Dakota-20.58%
Tennessee-6.97%
Texas-18.08%
Utah-43.69%
Vermont--14.63%
Virginia-1.03%
Washington--5.58%
West Virginia-3.41%
Wisconsin--2.93%
Wyoming-37.55%

[Darth Reagan]

That's just too damn close.

[NYC Republican]

We're swapping Ohio with PA (a wash), and losing N.H. Everything else is the same as the '00 election, correct?

[DM1]

"That's just too damn close."
you said it
the biggest worry here is Ohio. what the heck is up with them turning for an ultralib
not too happy with NH either at this rate
i pray to God that Bush wins this thing

[Williams]

Great. A turn toward a left wing do nothing senator with a record of zero achievement and double talk. Score another one for the "good sense" of the American people. For me, the alarm bell went off when this country unelected Bush Sr. after a 92% approval rating.

[Darth Reagan]

You're right. And over the last 2 months there have been a number of swings, but I'm surprised that even with state-by-state polling, we are still remarkably close to the 2000 result.

[Williams]

For example, take the "great states" of New York and California. If that were America, we'd be a Soviet Republic with mandatory attendance at gay orgies.

[Bonaventure]

That composite poll chart is no fun to look at. I have a feeling Bush is regain a bit of the lost ground in the near term. The long term, of course, is anyone's guess.

[MattinNJ]

Relax. Wait until the debates. Dubya will crush him. The American people don't like A$$#%^&. Kerry is an A$$#%^&. It's really that simple.

[Darth Reagan]

I think you are right. People will only fire the incumbent if they personally like the alternative. They liked Carter in 76, Reagan in 80 and Clinton in 92. They won't like Kerry.

[comebacknewt]

Ohio and Florida are the keys. I feel pretty good about Florida, but the latest polls out of Ohio have not looked good at all.

In the end, I think Pennsylvania goes back narrowly for the RATS, so I'm not counting on them.

[justshutupandtakeit]

That was a great example of the RATmedia's ability to control the thoughts of voters. They are not called "sheeple" for nothing.

Without the power of the RATmedia Kerry would have zero chance of getting more than 40% of the vote.

[HostileTerritory]

It's impossible to lose the PV by more than about a point and win the electoral college. If Bush loses by 3 points, he's going to lose by a significant number of electoral votes. I understand the theoretical argument about piling up votes in safe states but FReepers have run the math and it doesn't work out beyond about 1% difference.

I know you're just working with the national and state polls that you've got but some of them are wrong and we're going to find out soon what they are.

[AuH2ORepublican]

*PING*

[Darth Reagan]

You are right. The analysis is only as good as the data that goes into it. State polls seem to be working for Bush in many states (Michigan, Illinois, California), but the national numbers are worse. I think preference changes in state-by-state polls lags the national numbers.

We'll see. I'm interested in the trends this shows, and I would expect the states to follow and show an electoral lead for Kerry next week if the national numbers don't turn around.

In fact, if you calculate the national popular vote from the electoral analysis (rather than straight from the national polls, as I have done), you'd actually have a two-party vote of Bush 50.05 | Kerry 49.95, thereby validating your point.

[Coop]

So, by this map, if I'm reading it right Dubya needs only to hold onto PA and FL, while Kerry would need to keep NM, IA, MN, WI, MI, OH, and NH - just to lose by 12 electoral votes. And there are folks worried about this with over five months to go? :-)

[Coop]

And Kerry needs to hang onto OR and WA as well.

[JustAnAmerican]

It's really not a matter of liking or disliking F'n Kerry, it's a matter of Middle of the road/Conservative folks who will not be voting in the Presidential race, or not voting for any of the three politicians running. That's one thing folks do not seem/want to understand. Unless Bush or his advisors do something to change that, it's going to be a very close election that can go either way.

In a word, Illegal Immigration, and any Politician who doesn't think this is right up there with Terrorism in the American public's mind, is sorely mistaken.

[Coop]

Considering Bush's support is routinely and significantly stronger than Kerry's, I'm really not sure what your point is.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Something about this doesn't look right. The latest MI poll showed that W was ahead. We were also looking at leads in WI and OR. Plus W was only down 1% in CA, but the map shows it as solidly in the Kerry column.

[Coop]

I know you're just working with the national and state polls that you've got but some of them are wrong and we're going to find out soon what they are.

What if the national polls are oversampling Democrats, but the state polls have adjusted for the rightward swing (in many, but not all states) in voter registrations?