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These days, it seems that a mysterious group called “the CBO” rules the world. Or at least Washington. Unfortunately, they’re not very good at predicting things and their bad calls can lead to bad policy results. The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) predict what will happen with spending, tax revenues and deficits from new bills and congressional budgets. They have made headlines of late with their absurd warning that the Trump tax bill to extend the 2017 tax cuts and other reforms, like eliminating taxes on tips, would add some $4.6 trillion to the debt...

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Republican tax bill approved by the U.S. House of Representatives would cost the poorest Americans roughly $1,600 a year while increasing the income of the wealthiest households by an average of $12,000 annually, according to a new analysis released Thursday by the Congressional Budget Office. Middle-income households would see a boost of roughly $500 to $1,000 per year under Republican President Donald Trump’s tax bill, the CBO found. The cuts to the lowest-income households come from proposed cuts to social safety net programs including Medicaid and a food assistance program for lower-income people, known as Supplemental...

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" would cut taxes by $3.7 trillion while raising deficits by $2.4 trillion over a decade. The CBO makes projections based on information provided by Congress when considering legislation that includes spending and taxes. But is it always right? Not according to Larry Kudlow. During his show on Thursday, Kudlow outlined how the Congressional Budget Office missed projections related to the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act, Trump’s signature bill in his first term. "The current cost of the 2017 tax cuts should be zero. Why should they...

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that recent U.S. tariff increases will reduce federal deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, primarily through increased customs revenue and lower interest payments on federal debt—more than enough to offset the projected cost of President Donald Trump’s proposed tax cut bill. In a separate analysis, the CBO recently estimated that extending the 2017 tax cuts, as proposed in the administration’s new tax and spending bill, would increase the deficit by roughly $2.4 trillion over the same period. That legislation would reduce federal revenues by $3.67 trillion while cutting spending by $1.25 trillion,...

Congressman David Schweikert (R-AZ-01) raised an alarm about what he believes is the oncoming fiscal demise of the U.S. in a speech from the House floor. Schweikert explained that a simple series of calculations “point to a shrinking labor force, and lack of young people in our society, and the reality that in 8 years, the United States will have MORE deaths than births,” citing the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). CBO estimates that if the debt limit remains unchanged, the government’s ability to borrow using established "extraordinary measures" will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025. https://t.co/xqAdGulBoX— U.S. CBO...

At some point during tonight’s State of the Union, President Barack Obama will likely glance up and to the left of his podium, gesture toward the gallery, and mention one of the unknown Americans seated in the first lady’s box. This year their names include Edith Childs and Earl Smith, but insiders have a different name for them: “Skutniks,” in reference to the first everyday American invited by a president to embellish the State of the Union. Lenny Skutnik was a local hero, a Congressional Budget Office employee who plunged into the frigid Potomac after an Air Florida plane crash...

Projection is blaming someone else for your own bad behavior. We saw a classic case of projection in Thursday’s presidential debate, when President Biden—who is overseeing annual budget deficits of $2 trillion—asserted that his predecessor, Donald Trump, added more to the federal debt than anyone else. It’s part of the latest leftist argument: that if Trump wins the election, he will run deficits twice as large as Biden would. Debate moderator Jake Tapper joined the chorus of federal finance falsehoods when he claimed Trump had “approved $8.4 trillion in new debt,” while Biden’s actions will increase the debt by (merely)...

A new report released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that if the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) extended subsidies are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, millions of people will become uninsured and premiums will rise. Responding to the Senate Finance Committee, the CBO found that “not extending the credit will increase the number of people without health insurance and raise the average gross benchmark premiums for plans purchased through the marketplaces.” The extended tax subsidies were first enacted in 2021 through the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and extended to the end of 2025 through the...

Key Points Certain rules that reduce pensioners’ Social Security benefits have been in place for decades. House lawmakers voted to approve a bill that would nix those rules. Critics say more comprehensive Social Security reform should be prioritized instead. ********************************************************************* A bipartisan bill to change Social Security benefit rules for pensioners passed in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, with 327 lawmakers voting to support the measure. Now, the proposal heads to the Senate, where the chamber’s version of the bill has 62 co-sponsors, “surpassing the majority needed to pass the bill on the U.S. Senate floor and send it...

The nation’s fiscal path is “unsustainable,” and the problem “cannot be solved through minor tinkering,” the head of the Congressional Budget Office said Thursday morning. Doug Elmendorf, best known for arbitrating the costs of various health care proposals, added his voice to a growing chorus of economic experts who predict dire consequences if political leaders don’t scale back spending, increase taxes or both — and soon. Elmendorf noted a recent CBO report that pegged an increase in the public debt from $7.5 trillion at the end of 2009 to $20.3 trillion at the end of 2020 if President Barack Obama’s...

The Biden administration rang up a budget topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record. Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year ... the shortfall totaled $1.833 trillion, $138 billion higher than a year ago. ... The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion. Government...

We're told that we need to forgive every dollar of the $1.74 trillion in student loan debt because young people are being crushed under a mountain of bad loans. How were they supposed to know that majoring in Environmental Activism wouldn't allow them to earn enough money to pay back their loan? That said, young people are so overburdened in college loan debt that they can't buy a house, or start a family, or even move out of their parent's home. That's been the narrative advanced by Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and every other advocate to make student...

The CBO estimates the immigration surge will create $1.2 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade, mostly from income taxes and spending by the estimated 8.7 million migrants living in the U.S. during that time. The recent surge in migration across the southern border could help slash the federal deficit by nearly $1 trillion over the next decade, according to a recent report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The CBO estimates the immigration surge will create $1.2 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade, mostly from income taxes and spending by the estimated 8.7 million migrants living...

The growing undocumented immigrant population in the U.S. will lower the deficit by nearly a trillion dollars over the next decade, according to a study by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). CBO’s projections are based on the net sum of economic activity generated, taxes paid and benefits allotted to the immigrant groups included in the study. The nonpartisan agency estimates a net population increase of 8.7 million such immigrants between 2021 and 2026, averaging an increase of 1.7 million people per year above the pre-2020 average annual net immigration of 200,000. CBO based its projections on the economic effects that...

The Congressional Budget Office reports the 2024 budget deficit will near $2 trillion.. In 2024, the federal budget deficit is estimated to reach nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) this week. In February, the agency predicted that the deficit would only be $1.58 trillion. However, spending increases have caused the projected deficit to increase by $400 billion, a staggering 27 percent hike. According to the CBO, 80 percent of the spike in the deficit can be blamed on four sources of government spending. The largest source, responsible for $145 billion of the...

here’s a new report out by the Congressional Budget Office with an updated projection of the federal deficit for the 2024 fiscal year—in February, the office calculated we as a nation would be an additional $1.5 trillion in the red, but now that number has jumped 27% to $1.9 trillion, or a additional $400 billion.The CBO report identified several factors impacting this increase, with Cadaver Joe’s vote-buying student loan “forgiveness” scheme accounting for the “largest” portion of it. Here are the details, from a CNN report:Most of the spike in the fiscal 2024 deficit stems from four factors that are...

The April pronouncements of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Stanford University have sparked a crucial discourse about the ramifications of mass immigration on the American economy. Powell's observations emphasized the significant role of immigrants, particularly within lower-paying sectors of the labor market, prompting economists to hastily reconsider their projections. The forecasts presented by the Congressional Budget Office (C.B.O.) paint a stark panorama: an astounding 3.3 million individuals entered the United States in 2023 alone, with similar figures anticipated for 2024. While some champion these statistics as heralds of economic expansion, the underlying reality is bleak. The majority of this...

Federal tax revenue increased 33% since Congress passed the Trump-era tax reform bill in 2017, while spending increased more than 50% over that same time frame. The data is contained in the Congressional Budget Office's recently released 10-year budget outlook. "Measured as a share of the economy, tax revenue averaged 17% of gross domestic product in the years since the TCJA was passed, the same share as in 2017, and would have been higher if not for the pandemic and associated economic shutdowns," wrote Alfredo Ortiz, president and CEO of the Job Creators Network. "The CBO projects the tax share...

In the intricate dance of economic forecasts and fiscal warnings, the recent release of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) 10-year Budget and Economic Outlook has cast a shadow over the nation’s financial landscape. Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, steps into the spotlight with a resounding call for action as he decodes the ominous projections and highlights the pressing need for a bipartisan fiscal commission. As the digits on the deficit ticker continue to climb, Peterson’s warning resonates as a siren in the night, alerting us to the impending storm of unsustainable national debt. Over the...

President Joe Biden’s deputies have let 6.2 million illegal migrants into the United States, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Biden’s southern inflow is more than one migrant for every two American births since January 2021. “More of those people are also being released into the United States than previously, generally through the use of parole authority or with a notice to appear before an immigration judge,” said the report, titled “The Demographic Outlook: 2014 to 2054.”