Free Republic

Don't expect the 0bama "volunteers" to simply disband and go back to their jobs; most of these people are either: 1)perpetually unemployed 2)students 3)union thugs on "leaves of absence" These are the new SA/SS shock troops to "deal" with any dissenting voices. This dovetails nicely with his speech about a "civilian security force", don't you think. But what's even more important to 0bama is to start working on the 14 year olds in high school who will conveniently be 18 just in time for the 2012 election. Equally important is the legalization and registration of the illegals here, he will...

Even if the country is a mess. This includes the primary season also.

In other words, less than 1/2 of 1%. Traditional marriage ammendments passed in three more states. We get to fillibuster! And no more big bad George W to blame for everything. Remember, 4 years ago we were riding high with the WH, senate and house. So we could be right back in the saddle. 0bama has two choices, either govern as a moderate and go to war with Pelosi, or go hard left and lose in four years. He won by a small margin outspending his opp. 5:1. That won't happen again especially if Romney runs. So let's keep our...

Unbelievable that they call themselves a reputable polling firm, some even refer to them as "the gold standard." There is NO WAY there will be more I's than R's and NO WAY we are outvoted by 10%. Rediculous. Link: http://www.gallup.com

Much has been made of the newly registered northern Virginia voters being a big part of the supposed shift in voter ID. As has been previously mentioned, the 2004 ID on election day was 39R-35D-26I, in 2006 it was 38R-35D-27I. But almost all of the state polling done recently shows Dems with an average lead of 8-13% voter ID. SO what, in the the eyes of these polling companies, would lead them to make such a dramatic assumption? First of all, the 2004 results were as follows: 1,716,959 Bush 1,454,742 Kerry 21,000 3rd parties 72% of all voters were white,...

In 2004 white voters voted 73-27 for Bush over Kerry. Black voters were 85-14 for Kery. White voters comprised 71% of the overall vote, black voters 26%. 3% were latino and asian. The vote totals for the election were as follows: Bush 1,961,166 Kerry 1,525,849 Third P 11,731 The number of registered white voters in 2004 was 4,224,098, which amounts to a 58% turnout among whites. Black registered voters numbered 1,112,959. This amounts to an turnout of 81%. Overall turnout was 63% in a state that was pretty much uncontested although Edwards was a native. Voter registration 2004 2008 ====...

Some internal trends mentioned bode well for McCain! http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/mccains-pollster-foresees-tight-race-on-election-night-2008-10-28.html

This is assuming Dems +4 in voter ID. More specifically, 39D-35R-26I. This would tie the largest spread in the last six presidential election cycles.

Go to stolenthunder.blogspot.com for more: My articles on polling have received a great deal of discussion. Most of it has been emotional in focus rather than factual, and I am amused by those blogs which reference the articles but ignore the context and substance in order to attack something I never even said. There have been a few reasonable questions, however, and one of them addresses the state polls. The national polls are all over the place, but what about the state polls? Don't they show Obama leading in most states, and don't the state polls basically agree? Those questions...

My wife, five kids and I live in St. Petersburg FL, which, outside of southeast FL is the most liberal part of the state. So I wasn't too surprised when 3 neighbors went out and got 0bama signs after I put my McCain sign out. They are all teacher's union/tree hugger types, so no big deal. Then I see the tree hugger talking to a sweet little old lady across the street from us, we call her Miss Mary. She's 94 years old and has taken a liking to our family since we moved in a couple of years ago....

First the poll showing that younger voters weren't going to necessarily vote at a higher number this time, now this. Makes me wonder if Gallup is trying to salvage their rep as we get closer to election day. At the end of the day, they are still a business and can't risk being way off on the numbers. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111430/Early-Voting-Now-11-Could-Reach-30.aspx

Here is the 2004 breakdown of the seven battleground states McCain has to win: FL 41R-37D-22I VA 39R-35D-26I NC 40R-39D-21I OH 40R-35D-25I MO 36R-35D-29I CO 38R-29D-23I NV 39R-35D-26I PA 39R-41D-20I I know most if not all of these states will be 2-3 points closer to the Dems, but is that going to make up the difference he lost most of these states by? My guess is no.

Article this morning about how early voting "favors" the Democrats. In Florida, however, the fail to mention that McCain has a 150,000 vote advantage among absentee voters, while Dems outnumbered Reps 100,000-50,000 among early voters. The total number of absentee ballots cast was almost 700,000 to this point. As far as the rest of the article goes, they rattle off some Dem counties in Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and New Mexico where Dem voting is up slightly over 2004. This is to be expected because they have lost two elections. Also, Gov. Crist and Senator Mel Martinez have been...

McCain and the RNC started September with approximately 187 million, 0bama and the DNC had approximately 95 million, which gave us a 92 million advantage, approx. http://www.cfinst.org/pr/prRelease.aspx?ReleaseID=205 0bama raises 150 million for September, while the DNC raises 49 million(not sure if this is totally accurate). The RNC raised 66 million. which gives 0bama a net advantage of 41 million. Also, the NRA and other 527's need to be figured in as well. So where the ad dollars?

Has anyone started to see the advertising start to even out in their media markets yet or heard anything reported to suggest this? I know 0bama raised $150 million last month, but I figured that with the RNC money, NRA money, and the $200 million or so that the Rove led Freedom Watch group has, we would be able to outspend them the last few weeks.

Let me be clear, we are without a doubt behind in this race. The odds are definitely against us, but then again with the right/wrong numbers the way they have been and presidential approval numbers very low, we knew this for over a year. I believe the same party has held the white house three elections in a row only twice the last 100 years. But taking all those things into account, along with the fact that we have BEEN OUTSPENT 3 TO 1. That is about to change, with the RNC committing to about 7.5 million a day along...

200,000 more absentee ballot requests than the Dems! The rest of the article is somewhat negative, but anecdotal at best. My local campaign office is doing precinct walks which they didn't start in 2004 until 2 weeks before the election. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/53812.html