Only seven battleground states(not including PA). When properly weighed, show slight McCain lead.

[WestFlorida]

Here is the 2004 breakdown of the seven battleground states McCain has to win:

FL 41R-37D-22I VA 39R-35D-26I NC 40R-39D-21I OH 40R-35D-25I MO 36R-35D-29I CO 38R-29D-23I NV 39R-35D-26I

PA 39R-41D-20I

I know most if not all of these states will be 2-3 points closer to the Dems, but is that going to make up the difference he lost most of these states by? My guess is no.

[Doofer]

So is this good or bad?

[Thane_Banquo]

Mark my words: As it stands now, McCain will win PA. And if McCain wins PA, there is almost no chance 0bama wins the WH.

[MikeFrancesa.com]

Yes, if there was one state that you could guarantee would go McCain’s way, I would want it to be PA, because as you stated, if he wins that state, he wins the election.

[toddausauras]

I have a feeling you’re right and I’m a huge pessimist. Something tells me it’s going red. If we’re wrong so be it - but I think it’s goin’ red.

[TexasNative2000]

It comes down to PA and FL. If one candidate wins both, he wins the White House. If they split, it gets sorted out in other states.

Obama can't win without PA - McCain can't win without FL.

[scottinoc]

From your lips to G-d’s ears. People like you and HamiltonJay are keeping my hope alive. Nov 4th will either be the happiest or saddest day of my life. Good thing it’s eastern time zone. We’ll find out soon. If we win PA, we all get to go to be early.

[bigcat32]

OHIO FREEPERS:

The Republican Party is low on poll observers for Cuyahoga County. They need people to volunteer to observe polling places.

Please call 216-621-5415 if interested.

[nmh]

It’s going to be a nail biter. Also factor in voter fraud ...

FL 41R-37D-22I

VA 39R-35D-26I

NC 40R-39D-21I

OH 40R-35D-25I

MO 36R-35D-29I

CO 38R-29D-23I

NV 39R-35D-26I

PA 39R-41D-20I

[Thane_Banquo]

I strongly believe FL is safe. To counter the rest of the state, the Dem candidate has to win hugh in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. Problem is, at least for Palm Beach, there are no black voters there, and the hugh Jewish voting block there will not break as hard for Zero as they did for Kerry. No way.

[txrangerette]

The word is weighted, not weighed.

But that’s okay.

Are you trying to show that John Kerry lost all of these states in 2004, by enough of a margin that, even if more Dems are registered (or polled?) this time, the difference will not be great enough to allow for Obama to win them?

Therefore, McCain should narrowly win them?

Is that it?

I’m just trying to understand your post.

It isn’t easy to do, because of things like, for instance, you mention 2004 but you never mention John Kerry, although you use the pronoun “he” which has to be translated into a name by the reader.

[Thane_Banquo]

Voting fraud in FL will be harder this year than in past cycles, because they now require picture ID to cast a vote.

[DemonDeac]

Lets hope so.

[zwerni]

“Mark my words”

—what are you joe biden? should we gird our loins?

[zwerni]

“Voting fraud in FL will be harder this year than in past cycles, because they now require picture ID to cast a vote.”

—is this true?

[gathersnomoss]

Picture ID, what a novel idea.

[kara37]

Problem is, at least for Palm Beach, there are no black voters there.

Trust me, there is a huge amount of black voters in Palm Beach county.

[MassachusettsConservative]

How do you factor in Voter Fraud into the numbers?

[ravensandricks]

>> Voting fraud in FL will be harder this year than in past cycles, because they now require picture ID to cast a vote. Somehow, that doesn't instill the greatest confidence.

[St. Louis Conservative]

Obama has a double-digit lead in PA in the RCP average. It’s hard for me to make the case that every pollster is wrong. A few, sure. But not all.