Posted on 10/27/2008 8:15:11 AM PDT by WestFlorida
This is assuming Dems +4 in voter ID. More specifically, 39D-35R-26I. This would tie the largest spread in the last six presidential election cycles.
This is assuming he does worse among Inds, 2.5% better among Dems, and the same among Reps as Bush.
how do you figure?
Buckley, Frum, Noonan and Parker are all supporting the neo-Marxist Obama.
And the purpose of these numbers is? Welcome to freerepublic.com!
i appreciate your post...and analysis.
but i think there is a flaw.
this is a state by state race, not a national race, and each state has different voter demographics. are you posting the breakdown as a national average?
Well, I believe he will get 95% of Repubs, 55% of Inds, and whatever percentage of Dems is made up of older white men.
May not be enough though.
Welcome to FR.
Golly darnit! Beat me by 14 seconds!
welcome newbie, I take it you are here spreading the doom and gloom.
I find it interesting that sooooooo many newbies are on here and posting worthless trash.
But thanks anyway.
This is a 1-2 point race at this time. Not big enough for Obama to win.
To win the democrat needs a 10 point spread.
Are you kidding? If McCain gets those numbers plus say 10% if the DEMs (which at this time would appear to be a very conservative number), McCain will win.
I figure he’ll do better among Indies than Bush did, since that seems to be the constituency he’s sought for the last 8 years anywise. If the PUMAs turn out like they say they will, he’ll ace Bush among Dems, too.
Morning, Troll! Actually Husseing has the tougher row to hoe. The majority of people in this country will go with the safe choice. Guees who that would be?
Did they abolish the Electoral College while I wasn’t looking?
No worries, with all these newbies tossing around their blatant crap to depress us there will be other opportunities to welcome more of them to our Forum, not!
Getting on the correct side of things pre-election so they don't have to go to the re-education camps.
PUMA’s and Reagan Democrats will vote MAC
I think you will be looking at something more like this:
92% of Republicans, 12% of Dems, and 53% of Independents.
I cite Rasmussen because although he weights +7.2% for Democrats, his poll has consistently shown one KEY statistic. McCain has continued to out poll his party ID by 2%-3%. Combine that with him winning the 8% who are undecideds by 2 to 1, and that would give him about a 2% Margin of Victory popular vote wise.
My gut and the stats tell me that Obama only win 46% of the popular vote nationally. I think that party ID will be close to even again in this election, like 2004.
They plan to.
And I will say this if now one else will: There is a special place in HELL for any Republican who allows Obama to be elected by throwing away their vote on some 3rd Party wannabe! We can all argue whether McCain was the best choice for the GOP side (he wasn’t my choice), but what we can’t argue about is the increasingly clear fact that Obama is a Socialist/Marxist! God, don’t let this happen to our country! Please!
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