Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

McCain needs: 93.5% of Repubs, 46.5% of Inds, and 13.5% of Dems to win election

Posted on 10/27/2008 8:15:11 AM PDT by WestFlorida

This is assuming Dems +4 in voter ID. More specifically, 39D-35R-26I. This would tie the largest spread in the last six presidential election cycles.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: zot
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-33 next last

1 posted on 10/27/2008 8:15:12 AM PDT by WestFlorida
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

This is assuming he does worse among Inds, 2.5% better among Dems, and the same among Reps as Bush.


2 posted on 10/27/2008 8:16:16 AM PDT by WestFlorida
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

how do you figure?


3 posted on 10/27/2008 8:16:29 AM PDT by library user
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

Buckley, Frum, Noonan and Parker are all supporting the neo-Marxist Obama.


4 posted on 10/27/2008 8:17:45 AM PDT by popdonnelly (Obama is a neo-Marxist)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida; Cedric

And the purpose of these numbers is? Welcome to freerepublic.com!


5 posted on 10/27/2008 8:18:15 AM PDT by moose2004 (Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill And Then Drill Some M,ore)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

i appreciate your post...and analysis.

but i think there is a flaw.

this is a state by state race, not a national race, and each state has different voter demographics. are you posting the breakdown as a national average?


6 posted on 10/27/2008 8:18:18 AM PDT by housedeep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

Well, I believe he will get 95% of Repubs, 55% of Inds, and whatever percentage of Dems is made up of older white men.
May not be enough though.


7 posted on 10/27/2008 8:18:20 AM PDT by a real Sheila (McCain is Obama, lite!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida
May I be first?

Welcome to FR.

8 posted on 10/27/2008 8:18:29 AM PDT by OKSooner (Praise The Lord and pass the ammunition!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: moose2004

Golly darnit! Beat me by 14 seconds!


9 posted on 10/27/2008 8:19:30 AM PDT by OKSooner (Praise The Lord and pass the ammunition!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

welcome newbie, I take it you are here spreading the doom and gloom.

I find it interesting that sooooooo many newbies are on here and posting worthless trash.

But thanks anyway.

This is a 1-2 point race at this time. Not big enough for Obama to win.

To win the democrat needs a 10 point spread.


10 posted on 10/27/2008 8:20:24 AM PDT by stockpirate (Use your brain, vote McCain!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: a real Sheila
Well, I believe he will get 95% of Repubs, 55% of Inds, and whatever percentage of Dems is made up of older white men. May not be enough though.

Are you kidding? If McCain gets those numbers plus say 10% if the DEMs (which at this time would appear to be a very conservative number), McCain will win.

11 posted on 10/27/2008 8:21:06 AM PDT by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

I figure he’ll do better among Indies than Bush did, since that seems to be the constituency he’s sought for the last 8 years anywise. If the PUMAs turn out like they say they will, he’ll ace Bush among Dems, too.


12 posted on 10/27/2008 8:23:43 AM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Here they come boys! As thick as grass, and as black as thunder!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: All

Morning, Troll! Actually Husseing has the tougher row to hoe. The majority of people in this country will go with the safe choice. Guees who that would be?


13 posted on 10/27/2008 8:24:18 AM PDT by Maverick68 (w)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

Did they abolish the Electoral College while I wasn’t looking?


14 posted on 10/27/2008 8:24:57 AM PDT by WackySam (The Constitution is not an a la carte menu.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OKSooner

No worries, with all these newbies tossing around their blatant crap to depress us there will be other opportunities to welcome more of them to our Forum, not!


15 posted on 10/27/2008 8:25:12 AM PDT by moose2004 (Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill And Then Drill Some M,ore)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: popdonnelly
"Buckley, Frum, Noonan and Parker are all supporting the neo-Marxist Obama."

Getting on the correct side of things pre-election so they don't have to go to the re-education camps.

16 posted on 10/27/2008 8:25:17 AM PDT by penowa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Maverick68

PUMA’s and Reagan Democrats will vote MAC


17 posted on 10/27/2008 8:25:22 AM PDT by scooby321 (Cai)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

I think you will be looking at something more like this:

92% of Republicans, 12% of Dems, and 53% of Independents.

I cite Rasmussen because although he weights +7.2% for Democrats, his poll has consistently shown one KEY statistic. McCain has continued to out poll his party ID by 2%-3%. Combine that with him winning the 8% who are undecideds by 2 to 1, and that would give him about a 2% Margin of Victory popular vote wise.

My gut and the stats tell me that Obama only win 46% of the popular vote nationally. I think that party ID will be close to even again in this election, like 2004.


18 posted on 10/27/2008 8:25:27 AM PDT by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WackySam

They plan to.


19 posted on 10/27/2008 8:25:55 AM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: WestFlorida

And I will say this if now one else will: There is a special place in HELL for any Republican who allows Obama to be elected by throwing away their vote on some 3rd Party wannabe! We can all argue whether McCain was the best choice for the GOP side (he wasn’t my choice), but what we can’t argue about is the increasingly clear fact that Obama is a Socialist/Marxist! God, don’t let this happen to our country! Please!


20 posted on 10/27/2008 8:25:57 AM PDT by JaguarXKE
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-33 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson