Free Republic

If this leaked memo is accurate, then Reince Pribus will be correct when he predicted the presidential race will not take days to be called for Donald Trump. My guess is shortly after midnight eastern time (the main stream media doesn’t want to call Trump president-elect on November 5, 2024) Fox call Trump the victor. Then shortly afterward NBC, CBS, and finally ABC (because of Dana Walden) will reluctantly report on Trump’s victory.

If the pew research poll is correct (29% of Harris voters plan to vote on election day, 48% of Trump voters plan to vote on election day), then Sean is wrong about 80-90 million voting on election day. This morning (November 3, 2024) about 78 million early votes have been received by the polling offices. I estimate Harris will get 42.9 million early votes and Trump will get 35.1 million early votes. If Pew’s polls are correct, then Harris will get 17.5 million election day votes and Trump will get 32.4 million election day votes. So Harris could get 60.4 million total votes and Trump earns 67.5 million total votes.

For many years, Democrats have the advantage in early voting and Republicans have the advantage in same day voting. For me, early voting is a measure of how enthusiastic Democrats are for Harris. Seventy four million early votes means about 40.7 million voted for Harris and 33.3 million voted for Trump so far. Does this mean 16.6 million election day votes for Harris and 30.7 million election day votes for Trump? We shall see.

For those afraid that Trump might lose, remember this: Nate Silver said some pollsters are manipulating their own polls to make the Presidential race closer than it really is. For example Trump leads Harris by only 2.3% in Arizona according to Real Clear Politics polling average. Early vote by party registration hints that Trump will win Arizona by a bigger margin than that.

CBS Evening News reported (on November 1, 2024) that the early vote registration by party in Arizona is:
Republican 41% and Democrat 33%. If Trump wins Arizona by 8 points, I think Kari Lake can be dragged to a victory by Trump. If Kari Lake is 4 points behind Trump and Trump is 8 points ahead of Harris, then Kari Lake could end up winning the Arizona senate seat.

I think one problem that might prevent one from determining which ballot was the Chinese’s is people take different amount of times to vote. When that Chinese man obtained his ballot (or pin number), there must be a record of when he got it. So it’s easy to find out his place in terms of all ballots that day in that precinct. However he could take less time or more time than the other voters in the ballot box so when he typed the submit button, his place on the submit list maybe different than his place on the pin list.

Let’s remember the Trump Biden debate of June 2024. Biden said that he beat Medicare that night. Biden says stuff that helps Trump even if he didn’t intend it. So Biden saying that Trump supporters are “garbage” was helping Trump even though Biden wasn’t trying to hurt Harris intentionally.

Once Trump is inaugurated on January 20, 2025, Trump can sign an executive order to remove the security clearances of any of those 51 “experts” who still have them. That’s the least Trump can do.

We as well as the main stream media know that Trump’s RCP polling average is better than 2020 (for October 28, Trump is +0.2, Biden was +7.5 in 2020 and Clinton was +4.6 in 2016). Some say that pollsters are better than 2016 or 2020. When ABC released their latest poll (Harris 51% Trump 47%), I’m not convinced about that argument. The pollsters may be better than 2020 but I still believe they underestimate Trump’s support more than they underestimate Harris support.
Another argument for the Democrats is the ground game for Harris is better than the ground game for Trump. That may be true but the evidence of ground game has been revealed by the early vote. Harris doesn’t have as big a lead in the early vote than Biden did in 2020. I don’t think the ground game for Harris will win the presidency for her.

Someone should upload a photo of at least two of the fraudulent ballots so the public can (1) look at the signature of the two ballots and let the public make their own judgement if the signature was done by the same person and (2) who did the fraudulent ballots want elected. We the public want to know.

I read Pew wrong. So it’s 29% of Harris plan to vote on election day. So (29/71)*55 = 22.46 will vote for Harris on election day. So my simple example predicts 86 for Trump and 77 for Harris. Trump wins popular vote 53% to 47%, which in my opinion is too optimistic.

According to National Review, it appears that 43% of the early vote are cast by registered Democrats, 35% by registered Republicans, and 23% are cast by others (registered third party or decline to state party preference). I heard from ABC (I think) that women outnumber men in early voting by 10 points.
To make the math simple, I will say the early vote has 55 voting for Harris, 45 voting for Trump. If it is true that 48% of Trump voters and 23% of Harris voters will vote on election day, then (48/52)*45 = 41.5 (to be conservative I will lower this to 41) will vote for Trump on election day.
(23/77)*55 = 16.4 will vote for Harris on election day.
I think it is too optimistic to say 41+45 = 86 will vote for Trump and 55 + 16 = 71 will vote for Harris.

I think Trump has to first nominate an Attorney General to replace Merrick Garland. Then the Attorney General must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate. After confirmation, the new Attorney General fires Jack Smith, if he hasn’t resign by now. I wonder (1) will the Democrats fight hard against any Attorney General nominee and (2) will Jack Smith refuse to resign and wait for the new Attorney General to fire him?

The main stream media reported that there were threats directed at FEMA officials because of misinformation by individuals associated with MAGA after Hurricane Helene landed on US shores. They showed North Carolina governor Roy Cooper saying that Trump should stop with this misinformation.
When it comes to threats to a certain McDonalds restaurant, the main stream media ignored this story. The main stream media again shows their bias against Donald Trump.

About 1269 people were killed on October 7, 2023 in Israel. Were there any investigations or trials about those murders? As soon as someone is charged with those crimes and faced a jury for those crimes, then we can talk about investigating the Yahya Sinwar’s death.

“Frankly I think that team has resigned itself to an official L”

I don’t think they are resigned to a loss. They are still paying a lot of money for TV commercials. The Dems are still fighting the change in Georgia election rules. They may as well as save money for the 2026 midterm elections if they are resigned to a loss.

After Trump wins the electoral college, the Dems will be desperate (like a video was circulated online directed to electoral college voters to not vote for Donald Trump after the 2016 election). When will the media say the Democrats are a threat to democracy? Hopefully Democrats won’t put much of a fight after Trump nominates an Attorney General in 2025.

I don’t think voter registration forms ask for race or sex. I think they do ask for date of birth, address, some form of government ID such as driver’s license, party affiliation, and whether you wish to receive voter information in a certain language (for some blue states). They get the sex of the voter if they use the voter registration information and use it to look up driver’s license information. I guess the race information comes from looking at the driver’s license photo and guessing the race from that.

I think this judge will be overruled. Under penalty of perjury, they have to certify that the election results are accurate. The superintendants can say I can’t perjure myself so I won’t certify this election.

Is Chris Wallace equating rallies to a basement? Come on. Trump does townhalls where he answers voter’s questions. Why doesn’t Chris Wallace say that Biden has been in a basement for at least 3.5 years? As far as I know, Biden has only did one press conference (where he bragged about the job numbers) in at least 2 years.