Posted on 11/04/2024 9:51:04 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
Fox News host Sean Hannity said Monday on “Fox & Friends” that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has a “math problem” going into Election Day.
Co-host Brian Kilmeade asked, “What is your take of the state of the race right now? Everyone’s got their opinion. I want yours.”
Hannity said, “Look, let’s start out with where we are with early voting. Going into tomorrow, we’ve got to keep this in mind, everyone at home, please keep this in mind, we have 80 to 90 million more Americans that will vote tomorrow. That’s a lot of votes that have yet to be cast. Going in, Kamala Harris has a math problem and that is that they way underperformed especially in the swing states in terms of what their target numbers needed to be to go in with the lead that they wanted and they just didn’t get there. They’re way off, they’re off by double digits based on all the numbers I’ve been studying and seeing and we all go over. So what she now has to do is something the Democratic Party has never really pulled off before. That’s her challenge, that is to get people to the polls day out. Do I think that Ricky Martin, Lady Gaga, and J. Lo, Willie Nelson are going to put it over the top? I don’t really think so. I think the days of Hollywood celebrities, you know, influencing people are long gone.”
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
If the Democrats are under-performing in early voting, just wait until you see how they under-perform on election day.
Sean can help with the coverup afterwards just like last time.
We don’t know how much of Election Day voting has been moved to early voting for the GOP. My guess is most of the early voters are those who would walk over glass for Trump, like many on FR. Maybe the surprise will be some of the GOP early voters are those who aren’t hardcore Election Day voters, who can be easily swayed to avoid voting.
Kamala’s math:
2+2=whore
The most scariest sentence in the dictionary is Trump‘s voter base didn’t show up. And with all the cheating that’s going on right now this is how they’re gonna swamped and cancel our votes. No matter what the Supreme Court rules or any other judge these are lawless people that don’t give a shit about the law and will continue to cheat. Because once those ballots are deposited there’s no way they will not be counted. But if I hear on Wednesday that trumps based did not turn out I am going to be devastated. Because we are doing all we can to turn out the vote as much as we possibly can. I’m calling I’m texting I’m bugging the crap out of all my friends and relatives encourage them to vote and if they need a ride I’ll take you blah blah blah. But so far I’m in Texas so we’re kind of safe for now but the Patriots need to turn out in droves tomorrow at the crucial swing states. Remember we have to make it too big to rig. 🙏🏻 please start calling friends cousins family your neighbors get them out to vote if not these holidays that are going to be upon us pretty soon are gonna be extremely sad. It could be it’ll be the last Thanksgiving we have that we can afford a turkey if you’re lucky. Cause once the environmental wackos the peta and the anti-oil asses get power all of the gas power engines will be eliminated along with the steaks. It sounds insane but they will outlaw cows because of the farts and the chickens. I just don’t see a bright future….😞
Memorize this article please:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
I think that is exactly what the Democrats are saying.
One way to help figure that out would be to look at the absolute numbers of votes from each side, compared to 2020, say. If Democrat votes are down, that would be suggestive.
I’m content to wait for November 6th, or Inauguration Day, just to be sure.
If early voting were draining GOP votes from the total, it would show up in polling.
There is zero indication in candidate preference surveys to suggest that the 1/2 or so of 65 million votes cast so far come off the final GOP total. That’s a huge number. If it existed it would show in polling.
It doesn’t.
Math, to date 65 million votes cast. This is likely to be 40ish% of the total cast. The GOP voters of that total are not 50/50. They are less, but they are still 10s of millions. There is no way a loss of that many from the overall GOP voter total would fail to show up in polling. Surveys are showing approximately 1-2% margins either way.
You could not conceal such an “already voted so the base is diminished” effect from surveys. It would show.
If the Democrats are under-performing in early voting, just wait until you see how they under-perform on election day.
Which will mean their overnight “voting” on election day will be epic.
Looks bad for Democrats.
I’d like to listen to those strategy meetings — “Look, we’re down 50 million votes. Now, I have the ballots. I can give you 50+ million votes by 3AM. But, I’m telling you, people are going to notice. Is this really what we want to do?”
If the pew research poll is correct (29% of Harris voters plan to vote on election day, 48% of Trump voters plan to vote on election day), then Sean is wrong about 80-90 million voting on election day. This morning (November 3, 2024) about 78 million early votes have been received by the polling offices. I estimate Harris will get 42.9 million early votes and Trump will get 35.1 million early votes. If Pew’s polls are correct, then Harris will get 17.5 million election day votes and Trump will get 32.4 million election day votes. So Harris could get 60.4 million total votes and Trump earns 67.5 million total votes.
Assuming your typical concern troll position eh! Pay no attention folks, this ones not worth the time.
That is correct.
In addition, if we believe the GOP internals that they shared, almost half of our early voters are low propensity voters who voted in either one or none of the previous four elections.
The Dems on the other hand had a large majority of their early votes from people who voted in all four of the previous elections.
None of this guarantees victory, but I sure prefer being in our position instead of theirs.
We have a good estimate of early votes by party—no need to guess:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Why do you say that? With Covid ‘social distancing’ no longer an issue, wouldn’t it makes sense for Democrats to forego mail-in voting and go back to voting in person on Election Day?
Why do we assume lower early voting by Democrats in 2024 vs 2020 is underperforming vs just timing?
I guess we’ll find out tomorrow, but I just want to understand the reasoning.
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