120 Cities Most at Risk [Surviving Terrorism]

Surviving Terrorism.com ^ | 2-10-03 | Jarret B. Wollstein

[Salvation]

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120 Cities Most at Risk
Of Terrorist Attacks

For the past few years, the federal government has been providing training and assistance to police and emergency response workers in the 120 cities considered most at risk of terrorist attacks. A complete list of those cities appears at the end of this report.

As you will see, the list includes major government centers (Philadelphia, Miami, Sacramento, Washington, D.C.), cities with extensive industry (Detroit, Houston, San Jose), major business centers (Chicago, Miami, Philadelphia), important media centers (New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C.), major seaports (Newport News, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa), and important military facilities (Colorado Springs, Honolulu, Long Beach, Norfolk, San Francisco).

The federal government is providing extensive training for police and emergency workers in these 120 cities, including preparation for conventional (e.g., bomb), biological, chemical, and radiological (“dirty bomb”) attacks. However ...

Are the “At Risk Cities” Now Prepared?

The short answer is no, they are not. So if you live in or within 50 miles of these cities, you should consider yourself at significant risk for the duration of the War on Terror, which President Bush says could last as long as 50 years.

Fifty miles should be considered the minimal safe distance from an “at risk” city. The reason is that in event of even a small radiological or nuclear attack (5-20 kiloton weapon), lethal radiation and fallout will be carried by prevailing winds at least that far. In plain English, if the winds are blowing away from you, you will probably survive if you are 10-20 miles away. However, if winds are blowing toward you, you will probably be dead in a few days. Similarly, in event of a major biological attack, winds and fleeing survivors could easily carry pathogens at least 50 miles.

In the event a more serious attack, you may need to be as much as 100-300 miles away from a target city to survive.

While the government is now attempting to train emergency personnel in the 120 cities at greatest risk, please recognize it will take many years before most cities are even minimally prepared. Even then, government assistance is absolutely no guarantee that there will be enough drugs, water and food to go around for everyone in the event of a radiological, nuclear, or biological attack, which could put hundreds of thousands, even millions of people at risk. In many cases, the consequences will be nationwide.

Furthermore, there are many biological weapons for which no effective treatments exist, and the only protection is to not be anywhere in the area when people are exposed, and to get out before you and your family are exposed.

Also, in a crisis, expect emergency facilities—including hospitals and medical clinics —to be quickly overwhelmed. In fact, they are likely to be reservoirs of disease and contagion.

Dark Winter: What to Expect in the
Event of a Bioterrorist Attack

On June 22-23, 2001, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted what they term “a senior-level war game” examining the likely consequences of a smallpox outbreak in the U.S. Again, let me emphasis this is an exercise based on high-level computer analysis and prediction, not an actual occurrence.

The results were alarming: During the exercise, smallpox was projected to spread to 25 states and 15 foreign countries. By the 13th day of the exercise, “A total of 16,000 smallpox cases have been reported in 25 states.” But that’s just the beginning.

By the end of the exercise, the National Security Council projects “that in worst-case conditions, the third generation of cases could conceivably comprise as many as 3,000,000 cases of smallpox and lead to as many as 1,000,000 deaths.” (“Shining Light on ‘Dark Winter’,” Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, Electronically published 19 February 2002.)

Other conclusions of the Dark Winter study:

• “States have restricted nonessential travel.”
• “Food shortages are growing in some places, and the national economy is suffering.”
• “Residents have fled and are fleeing cities where new cases emerge.”
• “Canada and Mexico have closed their borders to the United States.”
• “The public demands mandatory isolation of smallpox victims and their contacts, but identifying contacts has become logistically impossible.”
• “The individual actions of US citizens will be critical to ending the spread of contagious diseases.”

This last point to me is the most important lesson of Dark Winter: To survive you need to prepare in advance.

For more information on Dark Winter, check out the collection of articles here and here. The last link is from the University of Chicago.

120 Cities Most at Risk
State	City
Alabama	Birmingham
	Mobile
	Montgomery
Alaska	Anchorage
Arkansas	Little Rock
Arizona	Phoenix
	Mesa
	Tucson
California	Anaheim
	Bakersfield
	Fremont
	Fresno
	Glendale
	Huntington Beach
	Long Beach
	Los Angeles
	Modesto
	Oakland
	Riverside
	San Bernardino
	San Diego
	San Francisco
	Santa Ana
	San Jose
	Sacramento
	Stockton
Colorado	Aurora
	Colorado Springs
	Denver
District of Columbia	Washington
Florida	Fort Lauderdale
	Hialeah
	Jacksonville
	Miami
	Orlando
	St. Petersburg
	Tampa
Georgia	Atlanta
	Columbus
Hawaii	Honolulu
Illinois	Chicago
Indiana	Fort Wayne
	Indianapolis
Iowa	Des Moines
Kansas	Kansas City
	Wichita
Kentucky	Lexington
	Louisville
Louisiana	Baton Rouge
	Metaire
	New Orleans
	Shreveport
Maryland	Baltimore
Massachusetts	Boston
	Springfield
	Worcester
Michigan	Detroit
	Grand Rapids
	Warren
Minnesota	Minneapolis
	St. Paul
Mississippi	Jackson
Missouri	Kansas City
	St. Louis
Nebraska	Lincoln
	Omaha
Nevada	Las Vegas
New Jersey	Jersey City
	Newark
New Mexico	Albuquerque
New York	Buffalo
	New York
	Rochester
	Syracuse
	Yonkers
North Carolina	Charlotte
	Greensboro
	Raleigh
Ohio	Akron
	Cincinnati
	Cleveland
	Columbus
	Dayton
	Toledo
Oklahoma	Oklahoma City
	Tulsa
Oregon	Portland
Pennsylvania	Philadelphia
	Pittsburgh
Rhode Island	Providence
Tennessee	Chattanooga
	Knoxville
	Memphis
	Nashville
Texas	Amarillo
	Arlington
	Austin
	Corpus Christi
	Dallas
	El Paso
	Fort Worth
	Garland
	Houston
	Irving
	Lubbock
	San Antonio
Utah	Salt Lake City
Virginia	Arlington
	Chesapeake
	Newport News
	Norfolk
	Richmond
	Virginia Beach
Washington	Seattle
	Spokane
	Tacoma
Wisconsin	Madison
	Milwaukee

[iconoclast]

This list of the 120 cities most at risk is assinine.

Yep, along with the silly "color" alerts and the whole damned Homeland Security Dept.

Borders still unprotected, aliens still not surveilled, middle easterners still pouring in, pilots still unarmed, and while I haven't flown in a year I presume I would still be seriously searched.

[Moleman]

but not Dearborn (southern suburb of Detroit where Ford Motor and a gazillion Arabs are located).
Even animals don't deficate where they eat

[Moleman]

LOL BTW is "Miller's Bar" still in Dearborn?
Yes it is! I work in Dearborn and try to get into Millers once a month or so for lunch, best burger in town.

[NerdDad]

University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa has a huge mooselimb population. Fifty miles away is an Air Force base that trains 20% of all AF pilots. The only such base east of the Muddysippi River. That's right folks only five bases in the world to train the Air Force's finest.
No threat to the home of the world's largest fighter training base in New Mexico? Guess it's too close to the Chinese Intelligence Agency at Los Alamos.
I could go on with examples of the absurdity of this list but won't. I think post 2 has it right. We are all at risk and very little is being done to reduce that risk.

[tet68]

Well this begs the question,
Which will create more terror, an attack in a large city?
(which would create terror and fleeing survivors)
or the extermination of a small town.
(which would carry the message, NO ONE is safe!).
Not a pretty picture, but one we face.

[The Lake City Gar]

Bah.

You can use statistics to prove anything.

[The Lake City Gar]

Bah.

You can use statistics to prove anything.

[The Lake City Gar]

Well...There's the good news.

[GOP_Raider]

Alright, Reno's not on the list!!! Woo hoo!!!!

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

There's something good about everything.

[ScottinSacto]

"As you will see, the list includes major government centers (Philadelphia, Miami, Sacramento..."

I think am more terrified of the risks already posed by those operating the "major government centers".

[Salvation]

**We are all at risk and very little is being done to reduce that risk.**

Must agree here!

[Oberon]

My first take is that it's interesting that Jacksonville, NC and Fayetteville, NC (Camp LeJeune and Fort Bragg, respectively) didn't appear on the list for North Carolina.

Nor did Durham/RTP, which would be important strategically.

[Salvation]

Suggestions for a 72 Hour Kit

[goody2shooz]

Unguarded wine cellar!? I'd be inside, self-anesthesizing.

[LurkedLongEnough]

Nothing in CT?

Or rather, more likely: "nothing in CT" would be the ~result~ of an attack on NYC, Indian Point or Millstone.