[LS]

Hayworth took these comments from the Washington Post, although the exact date of the map/article was not on his mailer.

[Always Right]

IN 8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth

The bloody 8th is always tough. Hostettler had a tough race with a guy that lives at home with his parents. Beating a sherriff will be a bigger task.

[John Geyer]

You don't know what ones are vulerable until the election season.

[FreedomPoster]

Ping. Any comments on the KY race here?

[bondjamesbond]

Three named "Murphy". Odd.

[MyDogAllah]

[FL 22, Clay Shaw, Jr., (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein]

I don't know the specifics of this race, but the last time Clay Shaw had a real battle on his hands was just a few years ago. (Sorry, I don't remember which election.) Shaw, the incumbent, ran against a Miami Beach city commissioner. With well over 100,000 votes cast, Clay Shaw won by just a few hundred.

Based on that alone, I'd say this election is close, though I haven't seen any poll numbers whatsoever.

[get'emall]

Pryce will wim. Kilroy is wishful thinking for the Rats.

[Mannaggia l'America]

PA 6, Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Law prof. Louis Murphy

I'm in this district. The Rats are hitting this area hard for a special election for state senator on Tuesday (the previous GOP state senator died), and my guess is that they will win, because I don't see too much fight from the GOP, and the Rats are desperate to win it. And it should be an embarrasment to the local/state GOP, because this area is heavily GOP (or at least it used to be - lots of Rich Rats moving in recently).

Whether or not Gerlach will win remains to be seen. He lost by something like 4 pts. in 2004, and that should not happen in this district. But if he and the GOP doesn't fight, and the rank and file GOP stays home, it's going to be close again especially if the Rats get uppity if they win the special election on May 16.

[HHKrepublican_2]

Look at this! The Democrats need to win ALL 15 of these inorder to overturn the Majority. So much for the doom and gloom GOP losing capitol hill BS

[colorado tanker]

I'm surprised the Colorado 7th isn't on the list. Beauprez is vacating the seat to run for Governor. The district was drawn by a judge to be even in registration, but in fact it has trended Democrat in the recent Presidential vote. On the other hand, the Dems have a bloody primary going. I haven't seen any public polling yet.

[VeritatisSplendor]

Hayworth was worried about this.

[muleskinner]

LS,

The question is, how many of these races can the Republicans afford to lose. I thought the Rep.s have a 35 seat majority. (Yeah I know I could look it up)

[BlackRazor]

CT 4, Chris Shays (R) vs. selectwoman Diane Farrell

CT 5, Nancy Johnson (R) vs. State SEn. Christopher Murphy

I'm in Connecticut, and I fully expect that the CT-4 race will be competitive, and probably one of the Dems' best pickup hopes this fall. Shays vs. Farrell will be a rematch of 2004, where Shays eked out a 52-48 victory. This district went for Kerry by a 52-46 margin.

Nancy Johnson won't be losing CT-5 unless the Democrats are picking up close to 20+ seats in November. I'd expect CT-2 (Rob Simmons) to flip before CT-5. Simmons won his seat by 8 points in 2004, in a district John Kerry carried by 10 points.

[Dave S]

Note the incredible bias: not "Districts in which Republicans could have recruited stronger candidates." Oh well

What districts would the Republicans stand a better chance of beating the Dem contender by recruiting a stronger candidate (by which I assume you mean more conservative)? Do you really think Dems are going to vote Conservative? I dont think so. Dont you think if there is a RINO in office now its because a Dem would have won the seat otherwise...that there arent enough conservatives in the district to win, just enough to fight the good fight and lose.

[Congressman Billybob]

If this WaPo list were accurate, the Democrats would have to win 17 of the 18 Districts to take control of the House. They ain't gonna do that. And 16 out of 18 ain't enough to get control of the House.

However, I know this list is inaccurate, since it does not include the race against 8-term incumbent, Charles Taylor (D, NC 11th), in Tier 1. Taylor has mounting legal and ethical problems, and lost 20% of the vote in his primary to a "little-known" and "lightly-regarded" neophyte challenger, namely me. The first poll after the primary shows him losing to Democrat Heath Shuler, a one-time football player. Taylor is under investigation by the FBI concerning the Abramoff and other matters, and may be indicted before the general election.

The Republicans are highly likely to lose this District, which is slightly Democrat by registration, but contains many Zell Miller Democrats who normally vote Republican at the national level -- House, Senate and President.

The only real chance the Republicans have to hold this District is to dump Taylor -- forcing him out like the national Democrats did to Senator Robert Torricelli in New Jersey in 2004. If Taylor is dumped with more than 60 days to go before the election, and replaced with a strong Republican (like me), the Republicans can hold this District. Absent that, this District will probably fall into the Democrat column in November.

See article and note below for more information on the NC 11th District.

P.S. My primary is over, but because of certain legal and ethical problems, the incumbent, Charles Taylor may withdraw/be forced out, and I am in the running to be chosen as the replacement nominee for Congress in the 11th District of NC. For more information, see the article below, and my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "What a Week! What a Week!"

[GraniteStateConservative]

NH 2, Charles Bass vs. Paul Hodes

They talk about bellwethers on Election Night. If Paul Hodes beats Bass when all the previous Dems who were 1000% better candidates could not, then proceed to put the garbage can on your head. It's really odd that there isn't a better Dem running this year. They'd have a great shot at it.

[Seattle Conservative]

I don't live in WY, but this was on Rasmussen:
The one interesting statewide race is the battle for Wyoming's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Wyoming is one of seven sparsely-populated states which send only a single congressman to that chamber. Since 1942, with one exception, the state's Member-at-Large has been a Republican.

But Representative Barbara Cubin, first elected in 1994, now leads Democratic challenger Gary Trauner by only four percentage points, 47% to 43% and the GOP can hardly take her reelection for granted. This becomes one more contest to which the GOP may have to devote resources during an election year in which the party is proving especially vulnerable.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Wyoming%20April.htm

---

Human Events had 30 GOP seats in jeopardy (April 24):
30 Republican House Seats in Jeopardy
Human Events ^ | April 24 2006 | John Gizzi

Posted on 04/24/2006 8:38:45 AM PDT by Reagan Man

With President Bush's popularity at an all-time low, hovering in the mid-30s in most national surveys, and the conservative base of the Republican Party increasingly dismayed with the President's performance on issues such as runaway government spending and immigration "reform," chances are increasing that the Democrats could eke out a majority in the House of Representatives in the elections this fall.

Four months ago, I concluded that there were 20 Republican House seats that were vulnerable to Democratic takeover, now I believe that there are 30. To achieve a majority, the Democrats would need to win a net gain of 15.

(The present makeup of the House is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and one independent who votes with Democrats for control. There are also two vacancies -- the seat of former Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham of California who was convicted of bribery and that of former New Jersey Democratic Rep. Robert Menendez, who was named to a U.S. Senate vacancy.)

"If the President's job rating is above 50%, his party tends to suffer only narrow losses or even, as in 1934 and 1998 -- and almost in 1962 -- makes gains," wrote veteran political prognosticator Michael Barone last week of midterm elections. "If the President's job rating is significantly under 50%, his party tends to lose lots of seats."

Bernadette Budde, who has been monitoring elections for the Business and Industry Political Action Committee for more than 30 years, told me two months ago that in the current political climate "the fickle finger of fate could point to upsets in a lot of districts the so-called experts are writing off as 'safe.'" At a breakfast two weeks ago, when I asked Budde whether the situation had gotten better or worse, she quickly replied: "Worse. The fickle finger of fate is now attached to a palsied brain."

Here is a summary of the 30 Republican House districts that have at least a fair chance of going Democratic in November:

Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.

California's 4th and 50th: Heightened publicity about the ties between Republican Rep. John Doolittle and his wife and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff has put Doolittle's re-election to the 4th District seat in jeopardy. In the disgraced Cunningham's 50th District, Democrat Francine Busby topped the all-candidate field with 44% of the vote in the first voting round and is even money to win the special election over moderate former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in June.

Colorado's 7th: Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez narrowly won this suburban Denver district in the last two cycles. But with Beauprez running for governor, Democrats feel confident of picking up a district carried by Al Gore and John Kerry.

Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th: Republican Rep. Rob Simmons has had difficult reelection runs since he won the 2nd District in the closest House race in the nation in 2000. Democrats scored well in recruiting former Westport First Selectman Diane Farrell to take on GOP Rep. Chris Shays in the 4th and State Sen. Christopher Murphy to oppose veteran Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.

Florida's 22nd: Long-time Republican Rep. Clay Shaw, who beat lung cancer, has had stiff challenges in his last three campaigns and now faces Democratic State Sen. Ron Klein.

Illinois' 6th: With Republican Rep. Henry Hyde retiring from this suburban Chicago District, Democrats are waging a well-funded race against his protégé, State Sen. Pete Roskam. The candidacy of Iraqi War veteran Tammy Duckworth is generating nationwide Democratic funding and publicity.

Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th: Hoosier Democrats have major league contenders against GOP Representatives John Hostettler (8th) and Mike Sodrel (9th) in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (8th) and former Rep. Baron Hill (9th). Two-term Republican Rep. Chris Chocola is still on the GOP "watch list" for the GOP in the South Bend-area 2nd District.

Iowa's 1st: Republicans in the Waterloo-Davenport district are increasingly worried that heated competition for nomination to succeed Rep. Jim Nussle (now the likely GOP candidate for governor) will benefit the probable Democratic candidate, 2004 nominee Bill Gluba.

Kentucky's 3rd: After 12 years in office, Republican Anne Northup is still a regular Democratic target in her Louisville district. This year, Democrats have an unusually strong nominee in Iraqi veteran Andrew Horne.

Minnesota's 6th: Democrat Patty Wetterling, who drew 45% of the vote against Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy here in 2004, has recently dropped from the Senate race for another run in the 6th, which Kennedy is leaving to run for the Senate himself. A districtwide convention next month will choose among four GOPers running to succeed Kennedy.

Nevada's 3rd: Two-term GOP Rep. Jon Porter is still a top Democratic target in his Las Vegas-area district and faces a strong challenge from former staffer for Sen. Harry Reid (D.) Tessa Haffen.

New Hampshire's 2nd: Democrats recruited well-known prosecutor Paul Hodes to oppose moderate GOP Rep. Charles Bass in this Concord-area district.

New Mexico's 1st and 2nd: Republican Representatives Heather Wilson in the1st District (Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce in the 2nd District (Roswell) are still major Democratic targets. Wilson, who always has tight races, faces an especially strong foe in State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid.

New York's 24th: With veteran liberal Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert retiring after 24 years, the GOP is likely to nominate conservative State Sen. Raymond Meier. Democrats smell victory in this now open district. Their first heavyweight nominee in recent years is likely to be Utica District Attorney Michael Arcuri.

North Carolina's 11th: National Democrats recruited onetime Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler to take on GOP Rep. Charles Taylor.

Ohio's 1st, 15th and 18th: With major scandal surrounding statehouse Republicans, Democrats anticipate a bonanza year in the state that clinched re-election for George W. Bush. Democrats recruited top opponents to face Republican Representatives Steve Chabot (1st), Deborah Pryce (15th), and Bob Ney (18th). Ney is the most high-profile lawmaker linked to Jack Abramoff.

Pennsylvania's 6th, 8th and 10th: With GOP Sen. Rick Santorum trailing for re-election and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell headed for a big re-election, Democrats have recruited strong contenders in marginal districts held by Republicans: Law Professor Lois Murphy against Rep. Jim Gerlach (6th) and Iraqi veteran Patrick Murphy against Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (8th). The fate of GOP Rep. Don Sherwood (10th), who has admitted an extramarital affair, is uncertain.

Virginia's 2nd: Democratic Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam, scion of one of his hometown's best-known families, is locked in a tight race with freshman GOP Rep. Thelma Drake.

Washington's 8th: In winning his first term in 2004, Republican Rep. David Reichert had an unusually close race in this suburban Seattle-based district. Democrats now have a well-funded candidate in former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1620524/posts

[MikeA]

Check out this link from a recent National Journal analysis of the competitive House races. Unlike the in the Compost, there are also Democratic-held districts mentioned that are teetering on the brink of a switch in party control as well. Anyway, this is written by Chuck Todd a respected political analyst. It should answer your questions about which districts are really going to be difficult for the GOP. Northrup's is not one of them by the way nor are several others the Compost Heap mentions.

http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/house/

[RetiredArmy]

The loss of either the House or the Senate is a self-inflicted wound by the RINOcrats for failing to stay in touch with their public. They have wondered off the path into liberalism and are lost in the wilderness. If they lose control of the Congress, the last two years of the Bush era will be worthless, less than now. The republicans do not deserve conservatives votes. They have completely forgotten conservatives with their big government spending and failures on the border issues. We, the people, will suffer for their incompetence.

[tobyhill]

Thank you for posting this because it really sheds more light in where the congress stands.

[jmaroneps37]

Naming the vulnerable Democrats


The magic number for a Democrat take over of the House is a net pick up of 15 seats. If you think the Democrats will win those 15 seats I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to talk to you about.


Here are the Democrat House members who are in danger.


Brad Miller, won with 59% in North Carolina, but has a few pro illegal and anti family far left positions that will be a problem against a strong conservative Black Republican.


John Barrow, won with 52% in Georgia one of the strongest Republican states in the country.

Jim Marshall won with 63% in Ga., but has called for Bush's impeachment if reelected. Putting the president's political life on the line could be a problem in Ga.



Chet Edwards, won with 51% in Texas as state that has been increasingly hostile to Democrats.

Stephanie Herseth, won with 53% by default in South Dakota, a strong Republican state.


Charlie Melancon, won with 50% in Louisiana a fairly strong Republican state.


Melissa Bean, won with 52% in Illinois and has been identified by the Democrats themselves as one of their most vulnerable members.

Alan B. Mollohan West Virginia. Yes he was reelected with 68%, but he is quickly becoming the Justice Department’s poster boy for corrupt Congressmen. He will have big trouble explaining away an 11 million dollar improvement in his personal wealth since 2000. Micheal Barone's Almananac of American Politics rates his district as a GOP +6. If Mollohan resigns, this should be a Republican pick up.