I'm in this district. The Rats are hitting this area hard for a special election for state senator on Tuesday (the previous GOP state senator died), and my guess is that they will win, because I don't see too much fight from the GOP, and the Rats are desperate to win it. And it should be an embarrasment to the local/state GOP, because this area is heavily GOP (or at least it used to be - lots of Rich Rats moving in recently).
Whether or not Gerlach will win remains to be seen. He lost by something like 4 pts. in 2004, and that should not happen in this district. But if he and the GOP doesn't fight, and the rank and file GOP stays home, it's going to be close again especially if the Rats get uppity if they win the special election on May 16.
I think you mean Gerlach WON by 4% in 2004. If he lost, he wouldn't still be the incumbent, right?