Supposedly "Vulnerable" GOP Cong. Districts

If this WaPo list were accurate, the Democrats would have to win 17 of the 18 Districts to take control of the House. They ain't gonna do that. And 16 out of 18 ain't enough to get control of the House.

However, I know this list is inaccurate, since it does not include the race against 8-term incumbent, Charles Taylor (D, NC 11th), in Tier 1. Taylor has mounting legal and ethical problems, and lost 20% of the vote in his primary to a "little-known" and "lightly-regarded" neophyte challenger, namely me. The first poll after the primary shows him losing to Democrat Heath Shuler, a one-time football player. Taylor is under investigation by the FBI concerning the Abramoff and other matters, and may be indicted before the general election.

The Republicans are highly likely to lose this District, which is slightly Democrat by registration, but contains many Zell Miller Democrats who normally vote Republican at the national level -- House, Senate and President.

The only real chance the Republicans have to hold this District is to dump Taylor -- forcing him out like the national Democrats did to Senator Robert Torricelli in New Jersey in 2004. If Taylor is dumped with more than 60 days to go before the election, and replaced with a strong Republican (like me), the Republicans can hold this District. Absent that, this District will probably fall into the Democrat column in November.

See article and note below for more information on the NC 11th District.

P.S. My primary is over, but because of certain legal and ethical problems, the incumbent, Charles Taylor may withdraw/be forced out, and I am in the running to be chosen as the replacement nominee for Congress in the 11th District of NC. For more information, see the article below, and my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "What a Week! What a Week!"

41 posted on 05/12/2006 1:54:58 PM PDT by Congressman Billybob (www.ArmorforCongress.com)

NH 2, Charles Bass vs. Paul Hodes

They talk about bellwethers on Election Night. If Paul Hodes beats Bass when all the previous Dems who were 1000% better candidates could not, then proceed to put the garbage can on your head. It's really odd that there isn't a better Dem running this year. They'd have a great shot at it.

42 posted on 05/12/2006 1:55:38 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative (...He had committed no crime against America so I did not bring him here...-- Worst.President.Ever.)

I think you mean Gerlach WON by 4% in 2004. If he lost, he wouldn't still be the incumbent, right?

Oops, right. (Actually, I meant to say that Murphy lost by 4 pts. - same difference. He has the same opponent as 2004.)

43 posted on 05/12/2006 1:56:06 PM PDT by Mannaggia l'America

No, Beauprez is not running for both. Rick O'Donnell, a former cabinet officer in the Owens administration, is running for the seat. He's a strong candidate and his fundraising has gone well. The Dems are counting on this seat, but they may be surprised.

44 posted on 05/12/2006 1:56:15 PM PDT by colorado tanker

I think you're looking for an argument and misreading what I'm saying. I'm saying, the whole tone of the article is, "What can the Dems do to get back power," not, "What are the strong and weak seats as EACH party sees it?"

And I didn't say a stronger candidate was necessarily more conservative. Note that many of the candidates in trouble---or, perceived to be in trouble---are liberal, many are conservative. It depends on the district.

It's just that the whole perspective of the WaPo is never that "Republicans could be even stronger" but always Dems "lost" the seat, never Republicans "won" it.

45 posted on 05/12/2006 1:57:44 PM PDT by LS

To: Congressman Billybob

John, I don't understand. If a DEM (Taylor) now has the seat, how can this be a Republican "loss?" And how can you be named his replacement if it is a DEM?

46 posted on 05/12/2006 1:59:51 PM PDT by LS

To: GraniteStateConservative

Thanks for the heads up.

47 posted on 05/12/2006 2:01:33 PM PDT by LS

I note there are only about 15-16 seats mentioned. If the GOP holds just half, they hold the House

Those are races where there is an incumbant. It doesnt include the open seats and there are a lot of open seats in formerly Republican districts but only two or so in Dem districts.

48 posted on 05/12/2006 2:02:57 PM PDT by Dave S

I don't live in WY, but this was on Rasmussen:
The one interesting statewide race is the battle for Wyoming's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Wyoming is one of seven sparsely-populated states which send only a single congressman to that chamber. Since 1942, with one exception, the state's Member-at-Large has been a Republican.

But Representative Barbara Cubin, first elected in 1994, now leads Democratic challenger Gary Trauner by only four percentage points, 47% to 43% and the GOP can hardly take her reelection for granted. This becomes one more contest to which the GOP may have to devote resources during an election year in which the party is proving especially vulnerable.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Wyoming%20April.htm

Human Events had 30 GOP seats in jeopardy (April 24):
30 Republican House Seats in Jeopardy
Human Events ^ | April 24 2006 | John Gizzi

Posted on 04/24/2006 8:38:45 AM PDT by Reagan Man

With President Bush's popularity at an all-time low, hovering in the mid-30s in most national surveys, and the conservative base of the Republican Party increasingly dismayed with the President's performance on issues such as runaway government spending and immigration "reform," chances are increasing that the Democrats could eke out a majority in the House of Representatives in the elections this fall.

Four months ago, I concluded that there were 20 Republican House seats that were vulnerable to Democratic takeover, now I believe that there are 30. To achieve a majority, the Democrats would need to win a net gain of 15.

(The present makeup of the House is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and one independent who votes with Democrats for control. There are also two vacancies -- the seat of former Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham of California who was convicted of bribery and that of former New Jersey Democratic Rep. Robert Menendez, who was named to a U.S. Senate vacancy.)

"If the President's job rating is above 50%, his party tends to suffer only narrow losses or even, as in 1934 and 1998 -- and almost in 1962 -- makes gains," wrote veteran political prognosticator Michael Barone last week of midterm elections. "If the President's job rating is significantly under 50%, his party tends to lose lots of seats."

Bernadette Budde, who has been monitoring elections for the Business and Industry Political Action Committee for more than 30 years, told me two months ago that in the current political climate "the fickle finger of fate could point to upsets in a lot of districts the so-called experts are writing off as 'safe.'" At a breakfast two weeks ago, when I asked Budde whether the situation had gotten better or worse, she quickly replied: "Worse. The fickle finger of fate is now attached to a palsied brain."

Here is a summary of the 30 Republican House districts that have at least a fair chance of going Democratic in November:

Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.

California's 4th and 50th: Heightened publicity about the ties between Republican Rep. John Doolittle and his wife and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff has put Doolittle's re-election to the 4th District seat in jeopardy. In the disgraced Cunningham's 50th District, Democrat Francine Busby topped the all-candidate field with 44% of the vote in the first voting round and is even money to win the special election over moderate former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in June.

Colorado's 7th: Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez narrowly won this suburban Denver district in the last two cycles. But with Beauprez running for governor, Democrats feel confident of picking up a district carried by Al Gore and John Kerry.

Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th: Republican Rep. Rob Simmons has had difficult reelection runs since he won the 2nd District in the closest House race in the nation in 2000. Democrats scored well in recruiting former Westport First Selectman Diane Farrell to take on GOP Rep. Chris Shays in the 4th and State Sen. Christopher Murphy to oppose veteran Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.

Florida's 22nd: Long-time Republican Rep. Clay Shaw, who beat lung cancer, has had stiff challenges in his last three campaigns and now faces Democratic State Sen. Ron Klein.

Illinois' 6th: With Republican Rep. Henry Hyde retiring from this suburban Chicago District, Democrats are waging a well-funded race against his protégé, State Sen. Pete Roskam. The candidacy of Iraqi War veteran Tammy Duckworth is generating nationwide Democratic funding and publicity.

Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th: Hoosier Democrats have major league contenders against GOP Representatives John Hostettler (8th) and Mike Sodrel (9th) in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (8th) and former Rep. Baron Hill (9th). Two-term Republican Rep. Chris Chocola is still on the GOP "watch list" for the GOP in the South Bend-area 2nd District.

Iowa's 1st: Republicans in the Waterloo-Davenport district are increasingly worried that heated competition for nomination to succeed Rep. Jim Nussle (now the likely GOP candidate for governor) will benefit the probable Democratic candidate, 2004 nominee Bill Gluba.

Kentucky's 3rd: After 12 years in office, Republican Anne Northup is still a regular Democratic target in her Louisville district. This year, Democrats have an unusually strong nominee in Iraqi veteran Andrew Horne.

Minnesota's 6th: Democrat Patty Wetterling, who drew 45% of the vote against Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy here in 2004, has recently dropped from the Senate race for another run in the 6th, which Kennedy is leaving to run for the Senate himself. A districtwide convention next month will choose among four GOPers running to succeed Kennedy.

Nevada's 3rd: Two-term GOP Rep. Jon Porter is still a top Democratic target in his Las Vegas-area district and faces a strong challenge from former staffer for Sen. Harry Reid (D.) Tessa Haffen.

New Hampshire's 2nd: Democrats recruited well-known prosecutor Paul Hodes to oppose moderate GOP Rep. Charles Bass in this Concord-area district.

New Mexico's 1st and 2nd: Republican Representatives Heather Wilson in the1st District (Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce in the 2nd District (Roswell) are still major Democratic targets. Wilson, who always has tight races, faces an especially strong foe in State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid.

New York's 24th: With veteran liberal Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert retiring after 24 years, the GOP is likely to nominate conservative State Sen. Raymond Meier. Democrats smell victory in this now open district. Their first heavyweight nominee in recent years is likely to be Utica District Attorney Michael Arcuri.

North Carolina's 11th: National Democrats recruited onetime Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler to take on GOP Rep. Charles Taylor.

Ohio's 1st, 15th and 18th: With major scandal surrounding statehouse Republicans, Democrats anticipate a bonanza year in the state that clinched re-election for George W. Bush. Democrats recruited top opponents to face Republican Representatives Steve Chabot (1st), Deborah Pryce (15th), and Bob Ney (18th). Ney is the most high-profile lawmaker linked to Jack Abramoff.

Pennsylvania's 6th, 8th and 10th: With GOP Sen. Rick Santorum trailing for re-election and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell headed for a big re-election, Democrats have recruited strong contenders in marginal districts held by Republicans: Law Professor Lois Murphy against Rep. Jim Gerlach (6th) and Iraqi veteran Patrick Murphy against Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (8th). The fate of GOP Rep. Don Sherwood (10th), who has admitted an extramarital affair, is uncertain.

Virginia's 2nd: Democratic Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam, scion of one of his hometown's best-known families, is locked in a tight race with freshman GOP Rep. Thelma Drake.

Washington's 8th: In winning his first term in 2004, Republican Rep. David Reichert had an unusually close race in this suburban Seattle-based district. Democrats now have a well-funded candidate in former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1620524/posts

49 posted on 05/12/2006 2:10:46 PM PDT by Seattle Conservative (God bless and protect our troops and their CIC.)

I'm saying, the whole tone of the article is, "What can the Dems do to get back power," not, "What are the strong and weak seats as EACH party sees it?"

Reporters write to the prevailing script which is can the Democrats win back the house. That is the story line. It isnt how do the individual races stack up, its what are the Dems chances of finally getting out of the wilderness.

For information on these races you might want to check Elections and Campaigns. The guy there handicaps each race giving a percentage probablility for winning. These are updated frequently. You can find it here http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/

You might also google Barone, Cook, and Orinstein. All of them have had articles on House races published on Real Clear Politics during the past week or two.

50 posted on 05/12/2006 2:11:20 PM PDT by Dave S

Check out this link from a recent National Journal analysis of the competitive House races. Unlike the in the Compost, there are also Democratic-held districts mentioned that are teetering on the brink of a switch in party control as well. Anyway, this is written by Chuck Todd a respected political analyst. It should answer your questions about which districts are really going to be difficult for the GOP. Northrup's is not one of them by the way nor are several others the Compost Heap mentions.

http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/house/

51 posted on 05/12/2006 2:12:40 PM PDT by MikeA (Not voting in November because you're pouting is a vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House)

I confess to not knowing much about the candidates in IA-1 except that the district is marginally Democratic, both major party candidates will be viable, and our advantage is that the current congressman is running for governor.

52 posted on 05/12/2006 2:16:05 PM PDT by HostileTerritory

To: Seattle Conservative

Good summary. But isn't it interesting there is NEVER an analysis of the vulnerable Dem seats?? They have 201 seats to defend. Certainly 20 of those are "challenge-able."

53 posted on 05/12/2006 2:19:28 PM PDT by LS

I don't trust these kinds of "unbiased" election sources. I don't know about House races, but Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato have been horrible in predicting the Senate. As I mentioned above, my record on picking the truly competitive senate races in 2002 and 2004 was, well, outstanding. I missed one race in each (Thune lost by fewer than 500 votes, and Coors lost in 2004 in a close one). So until Cook and those guys do better at the obvious races, I can't trust them on the more localized races.

54 posted on 05/12/2006 2:21:24 PM PDT by LS

Thanks. Just what I'm looking for.

55 posted on 05/12/2006 2:21:50 PM PDT by LS

To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief

[It was in 2000 when Shaw barely won against his opponent]

Thank you!

[Redistricting removed the only county in his district to vote against him, Miami-Dade, leaving the Broward and Palm Beach portions, which still gave him majorities in that race]

Right! He was my Representative here in North Beach. The district was long and thin, stretching along the coast from Boca to here, the northern third of Miami Beach. I never knew the reason behind him not being my congress-critter any more. Now I know. Mucho gracias!

56 posted on 05/12/2006 2:21:51 PM PDT by MyDogAllah

BTW, I see two potential GOP pickups in the top 25 seats they cover.

57 posted on 05/12/2006 2:24:56 PM PDT by LS

The loss of either the House or the Senate is a self-inflicted wound by the RINOcrats for failing to stay in touch with their public. They have wondered off the path into liberalism and are lost in the wilderness. If they lose control of the Congress, the last two years of the Bush era will be worthless, less than now. The republicans do not deserve conservatives votes. They have completely forgotten conservatives with their big government spending and failures on the border issues. We, the people, will suffer for their incompetence.

58 posted on 05/12/2006 2:28:58 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (Politicians and the U.S. Government are liars, cheats and thieves, in it for their own gain.)

Thank you for posting this because it really sheds more light in where the congress stands.

59 posted on 05/12/2006 2:29:24 PM PDT by tobyhill (The War on Terrorism is not for the weak.)

"Ah. Well, I don't trust SURVEY USA."

I shared your skepticism of SurveyUSA's methodology when they first became well-known a few years ago. However, as someone who tracks the accuracy of pollsters, I have been pleasantly surprised by their performance. I now consider SurveyUSA to be one of the more reliable pollsters, based on the data.

SurveyUSA's website has an extensive database comparing the accuracy of their polling vs. other pollsters who polled the same races. They provide the average Mean Error and Standard Deviation from the final election outcome vs. each competitor, using eight (8) different methods of calculating the above values. This data set goes back to 1992. If you want to research it yourself, the databases are located here:

http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html

60 posted on 05/12/2006 2:29:39 PM PDT by BlackRazor

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