Supposedly "Vulnerable" GOP Cong. Districts

Mailer from J.D. Hayworth | 5/12/06 | LS

[LS]

J.D. Hayworth sent out a request for funds, and in it was a map from the WaPo of "Democratic Contenders," ranked according to three tiers: Tier 1, "Dem considered a strong threat to the incumbent," Tier 2, "races in GOP-leaning districts that play to the strength of the Dem," and Tier 3, "Swing districts where Dems should have recruited stronger candidates." (Note the incredible bias: not "Districts in which Republicans could have recruited stronger candidates." Oh well).

I wanted Freeper input on the accuracy of these races, and whether, indeed, these are as "competitive" as the Wa Compost thinks. In Tier 1 we have:

NM 1, Heather Wilson (R) vs. State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid

IN 8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth

FL 22, Clay Shaw, Jr., (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein

PA 6, Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Law prof. Louis Murphy

CT 4, Chris Shays (R) vs. selectwoman Diane Farrell

In Tier 2 we have:

NY 20, John Sweeney (R) vs. Atty Kirsten Gillibrand

AZ 5, J. D. Hayworth (R) vs. former mayoer Harry Mitchell

CT 5, Nancy Johnson (R) vs. State SEn. Christopher Murphy

OH 15, Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Franklin Co. COmmissioner Mary Kilroy

OH 1, Steve Chabot (R) vs. Cincy City Council member John Cranley

Tier 3 consists of:

PA 8, Michael Fizpatrick (R) vs. Iraq vet Pat Murphy

KY 3, Anne Northrup (R) vs Iraq vet Andrew Horne

NE 3, Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen

WA 8, David G. Reichert v. Darcy Burner

NH 2, Charles Bass vs. Paul Hodes

In addition, the Compost ran three "clear recruiting failures," PA 15 (Charles Dent, R, incumbent), IO 4 (Tom Latham, R incumbent), and AZ 1, (Rick Renzi, R, incumbent).

FREEPERS: If you are in these districts or know anything about these races, please register your view of how serious the "challenge" is. For ex., Chabot is in the district next to mine. I can't fathom that he is in trouble in any way, shape, or form. I don't know about Deborah Pryce's district, however.

[LS]

Hayworth took these comments from the Washington Post, although the exact date of the map/article was not on his mailer.

[Always Right]

IN 8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth

The bloody 8th is always tough. Hostettler had a tough race with a guy that lives at home with his parents. Beating a sherriff will be a bigger task.

[LS]

So in your view is this a loss?

[John Geyer]

You don't know what ones are vulerable until the election season.

[FreedomPoster]

Ping. Any comments on the KY race here?

[Lovergirl]

I will go with Hostettler.

[bondjamesbond]

Three named "Murphy". Odd.

[MyDogAllah]

[FL 22, Clay Shaw, Jr., (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein]

I don't know the specifics of this race, but the last time Clay Shaw had a real battle on his hands was just a few years ago. (Sorry, I don't remember which election.) Shaw, the incumbent, ran against a Miami Beach city commissioner. With well over 100,000 votes cast, Clay Shaw won by just a few hundred.

Based on that alone, I'd say this election is close, though I haven't seen any poll numbers whatsoever.

[FreedomPoster]

>>Hostettler had a tough race with a guy that lives at home with his parents.

I would think this would've helped him run strong with the party base, though, since so many could identify with this.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

It was in 2000 when Shaw barely won against his opponent. Redistricting removed the only county in his district to vote against him, Miami-Dade, leaving the Broward and Palm Beach portions, which still gave him majorities in that race. Since then, he has won with 61% in 2002 and 63% in 2004. I can only assume that Klein has substantial pull in those two counties to perhaps defeat Shaw, otherwise they wouldn't have recruited him.

[Always Right]

So in your view is this a loss?

The odds are against Hostettler.

[hispanichoosier]

Hostettler made some missteps when tornados hit the Evansville area; he was nowhere to be found, Ellsworth was on TV constantly.

I don't know if John can pull it out. On the plus side, the district grows more Republican each year as the Southern Indiana Dems get older & die off. Moreover, Toyota has brought a lot of non-union jobs to Princeton. Finally John's grassroots network is incomparable.

On the minus side, John bungled the tornados that hit last year. He doesn't take PAC money, so he's not a good fundraiser. Finally, Ellsworth's approval rating is sky-high.

[digger48]

I thought Sodrel(R) vs Hill(D) would make the list

[get'emall]

Pryce will wim. Kilroy is wishful thinking for the Rats.

[Mannaggia l'America]

PA 6, Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Law prof. Louis Murphy

I'm in this district. The Rats are hitting this area hard for a special election for state senator on Tuesday (the previous GOP state senator died), and my guess is that they will win, because I don't see too much fight from the GOP, and the Rats are desperate to win it. And it should be an embarrasment to the local/state GOP, because this area is heavily GOP (or at least it used to be - lots of Rich Rats moving in recently).

Whether or not Gerlach will win remains to be seen. He lost by something like 4 pts. in 2004, and that should not happen in this district. But if he and the GOP doesn't fight, and the rank and file GOP stays home, it's going to be close again especially if the Rats get uppity if they win the special election on May 16.

[HHKrepublican_2]

Look at this! The Democrats need to win ALL 15 of these inorder to overturn the Majority. So much for the doom and gloom GOP losing capitol hill BS

[colorado tanker]

I'm surprised the Colorado 7th isn't on the list. Beauprez is vacating the seat to run for Governor. The district was drawn by a judge to be even in registration, but in fact it has trended Democrat in the recent Presidential vote. On the other hand, the Dems have a bloody primary going. I haven't seen any public polling yet.

[LS]

Perhaps we should also have Freepers add, "Dem incumbents who are vulnerable," since the WaPo would NEVER do that.

[Always Right]

I thought Sodrel(R) vs Hill(D) would make the list

Isn't that a rematch of a really close race?