[FL 22, Clay Shaw, Jr., (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein]
I don't know the specifics of this race, but the last time Clay Shaw had a real battle on his hands was just a few years ago. (Sorry, I don't remember which election.) Shaw, the incumbent, ran against a Miami Beach city commissioner. With well over 100,000 votes cast, Clay Shaw won by just a few hundred.
Based on that alone, I'd say this election is close, though I haven't seen any poll numbers whatsoever.
It was in 2000 when Shaw barely won against his opponent. Redistricting removed the only county in his district to vote against him, Miami-Dade, leaving the Broward and Palm Beach portions, which still gave him majorities in that race. Since then, he has won with 61% in 2002 and 63% in 2004. I can only assume that Klein has substantial pull in those two counties to perhaps defeat Shaw, otherwise they wouldn't have recruited him.
I live in Shaw's district. He is popular in Ft.Lauderdale, having been mayor years ago. He is districted along the coast which is more conservative because it doesn't have all the retiree communities like Century Village, which are to the west and are a huge block vote for Wexler (an insufferable hemmorhoid of a congressman).
The president was here this week to campaign for Shaw and he brought in $800K with one visit. Klien is a liberal democrat and has an uphill battle to win over Shaw's incumbency.