Posted on 05/12/2006 1:19:33 PM PDT by LS
J.D. Hayworth sent out a request for funds, and in it was a map from the WaPo of "Democratic Contenders," ranked according to three tiers: Tier 1, "Dem considered a strong threat to the incumbent," Tier 2, "races in GOP-leaning districts that play to the strength of the Dem," and Tier 3, "Swing districts where Dems should have recruited stronger candidates." (Note the incredible bias: not "Districts in which Republicans could have recruited stronger candidates." Oh well).
I wanted Freeper input on the accuracy of these races, and whether, indeed, these are as "competitive" as the Wa Compost thinks. In Tier 1 we have:
NM 1, Heather Wilson (R) vs. State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid
IN 8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth
FL 22, Clay Shaw, Jr., (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein
PA 6, Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Law prof. Louis Murphy
CT 4, Chris Shays (R) vs. selectwoman Diane Farrell
In Tier 2 we have:
NY 20, John Sweeney (R) vs. Atty Kirsten Gillibrand
AZ 5, J. D. Hayworth (R) vs. former mayoer Harry Mitchell
CT 5, Nancy Johnson (R) vs. State SEn. Christopher Murphy
OH 15, Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Franklin Co. COmmissioner Mary Kilroy
OH 1, Steve Chabot (R) vs. Cincy City Council member John Cranley
Tier 3 consists of:
PA 8, Michael Fizpatrick (R) vs. Iraq vet Pat Murphy
KY 3, Anne Northrup (R) vs Iraq vet Andrew Horne
NE 3, Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen
WA 8, David G. Reichert v. Darcy Burner
NH 2, Charles Bass vs. Paul Hodes
In addition, the Compost ran three "clear recruiting failures," PA 15 (Charles Dent, R, incumbent), IO 4 (Tom Latham, R incumbent), and AZ 1, (Rick Renzi, R, incumbent).
FREEPERS: If you are in these districts or know anything about these races, please register your view of how serious the "challenge" is. For ex., Chabot is in the district next to mine. I can't fathom that he is in trouble in any way, shape, or form. I don't know about Deborah Pryce's district, however.
I think you mean Gerlach WON by 4% in 2004. If he lost, he wouldn't still be the incumbent, right?
That's why I added another question, "What are the DEM seats that are vulnerable?"
The list includes endangered incumbents, not open seats.
About that Hill-Sodrel race, I noticed, quite interestingly, that Hill's margin in Monroe County (home of Bloomington, very liberal) shot up from 48% in 2002 to 58% in 2004, yet he still lost to Sodrel in 2004 (and his re-elect margin against Sodrel in 2002 wasn't that big either). So Hill may face big problems if he doesn't get a big turnout in Monroe County this year, and it doesn't help that Sodrel successfully nuked Hill's imagine as a moderate by pointing out his votes against tax cuts and against the Federal Marriage Amendment.
Are you saying Beauprez will still run if he doesn't win Gov? And if he does? Or is there another candidate?
The list doesn't include several Republican open seats that are at risk, including IA-1, CO-7, and AZ-8.
Is that all the Dems got?
AZ 8 is Kolbe? But the primary isn't until Sept. So we won't know how "vulnerable" that really is. What is the story on IA 1? Candidates?
Actually, I posted the Hayworth numbers just this morning.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1631167/posts
Democrat Counts on Third Bid in Indiana
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By RYAN LENZ, The Associated Press
May 12, 2006 2:08 PM (2 hrs 25 mins ago)
JASPER, Ind. - Democrat Baron Hill had a picture hanging for inspiration on the wall of his old congressional office - a drawing of a frog choking a pelican as it slips into the bird's mouth.
The message, Hill said, was simple: Never give up.
"It's not easy to lose," Hill said. "But you can't drown in your sorrows forever."
Hill knows about defeat, having lost Indiana's 9th Congressional District seat by just under 1,500 votes two years ago to Republican Mike Sodrel.
Now Hill wants the congressional seat back, and he's bracing for a campaign that promises to be expensive and aggressive.
The southern Indiana district counts Indiana University in Bloomington, rural areas and increasing numbers of people moving from Cincinnati and Louisville, Ky., into the Indiana suburbs. This district and Indiana's neighboring 8th are among the nation's most closely watched races this year as Republicans work to keep their majority in the House.
Republicans hold the edge, 231-201, with one Democratic-leaning independent and two vacancies.
The November election will be the third matchup between Hill and Sodrel, owner of a southern Indiana trucking company, since 2002. That year, Hill held onto his seat by more than 9,400 votes. But in 2004, Sodrel rode a Republican wave with help from visits by President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Cabinet members, winning by fewer than 1,500 votes out of 287,000 cast. With 49.5 percent of the vote, it was the smallest winning percentage in 2004's congressional races.
The tide could turn again this year, though, as Bush's approval rating is at a record low. Sixty-five percent of Americans do not approve of the president's job performance, according to an AP-Ipsos poll completed May 3.
That, plus voter apathy typically associated with midterm elections, could shorten the president's coattails, observers say.
"The bottom line is, are the Republicans angry enough with the president that they're just not going to show up to vote?" political pollster Brian Vargus said.
In his first term, Sodrel, who campaigned in 2002 as a Washington outsider protecting the interests of voters, has been an avid supporter of the military and the war on terror. He visited his old Indiana National Guard unit in Afghanistan last year and has voted in favor of many of Bush's initiatives.
Bush returned the favor in March by attending an Indianapolis fundraiser that raised about $500,000 for Sodrel's re-election campaign. "He's a good, honest man. He's a problem solver," Bush said.
Still, the freshman lawmaker has made comments suggesting an attempt to distance the campaign from the White House and the Iraq war.
"All politics is local," Sodrel told The Associated Press in a recent interview. "I think in the end, each congressional candidate will stand on his or her own voting record."
Lee Hamilton, a Democrat who represented the southern Indiana district in Congress for more than 30 years, said the political scene is changing. Rural towns whose voters traditionally lean closer to conservative Republican agendas seem to have become more moderate, which could favor Hill in the rematch, Hamilton said.
"They don't seem to me to have the ideological edge that is characteristic of much of the rest of the country," said Hamilton, who also served as vice chairman of the federal commission investigating the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
Hill, 52, who represented the district from 1999 to 2004, said he decided to run after seeing families in the district struggle under Republican leadership.
"I do not like the direction the country is moving in right now," said Hill, who has worked for a Washington consulting firm but has been focused on another run. "The administration and others talk about this economic recovery, but people in the 9th District are not feeling it."
But not all voters who have had to choose between Sodrel and Hill before agree.
Jim Siebert, a clothing store owner in Jasper, Ind., smiled and shook hands with Hill during a recent visit. But after Hill had gone, Siebert said he and the former congressman, who has a moderate voting record on issues like education and abortion, "aren't on the same side of the fence."
"I'm just more conservative than Baron Hill. He likes to talk like he's a conservative, but he's not," said Siebert, 54, who voted for Sodrel in 2004.
The Hill-Sodrel rematch isn't the first time two candidates have faced off three successive times. Former Minnesota congressman Bill Luther, a Democrat, and Republican John Kline faced each other in 1998, 2000 - both of which Luther won - and lastly in 2002, when Kline won with 53 percent of the vote.
But their rematch could be among the nation's most expensive. Hill had almost $690,000 on hand after winning his May primary, compared to Sodrel's $850,000, according to recent Federal Election Commission filings.
Another race on the perennial watch list is the neighboring 8th Congressional District, nicknamed the "Bloody Eighth" because of close, contentious campaigns.
There, Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth will challenge six-time Republican incumbent Rep. John Hostettler, a Christian fundamentalist who has rankled some moderate voters.
Hostettler has never gotten more than 53 percent of the vote in six elections, and voters in the district are notoriously fickle: In four successive elections in the 1970s, four different congressmen were elected.
LS,
The question is, how many of these races can the Republicans afford to lose. I thought the Rep.s have a 35 seat majority. (Yeah I know I could look it up)
Sodrel is the incumbent
I note there are only about 15-16 seats mentioned. If the GOP holds just half, they hold the House.
CT 5, Nancy Johnson (R) vs. State SEn. Christopher Murphy
I'm in Connecticut, and I fully expect that the CT-4 race will be competitive, and probably one of the Dems' best pickup hopes this fall. Shays vs. Farrell will be a rematch of 2004, where Shays eked out a 52-48 victory. This district went for Kerry by a 52-46 margin.
Nancy Johnson won't be losing CT-5 unless the Democrats are picking up close to 20+ seats in November. I'd expect CT-2 (Rob Simmons) to flip before CT-5. Simmons won his seat by 8 points in 2004, in a district John Kerry carried by 10 points.
I live in Shaw's district. He is popular in Ft.Lauderdale, having been mayor years ago. He is districted along the coast which is more conservative because it doesn't have all the retiree communities like Century Village, which are to the west and are a huge block vote for Wexler (an insufferable hemmorhoid of a congressman).
The president was here this week to campaign for Shaw and he brought in $800K with one visit. Klien is a liberal democrat and has an uphill battle to win over Shaw's incumbency.
It's 15. But I want to know how many DEM incumbents may lose. I still think we will gain some seats.
For example, in 2002 I correctly called EVERY truly competitive senate race except for Thune; and in 2004 I correctly called every competitive senate race except for Colorado. So for Survey USA to have, say, McCain and Teddy K. winning, but miss, say, Thune's win or the GA race is kind of meaningless. I'd have to see how they were on races that were decided by less than 5% of the vote.
What districts would the Republicans stand a better chance of beating the Dem contender by recruiting a stronger candidate (by which I assume you mean more conservative)? Do you really think Dems are going to vote Conservative? I dont think so. Dont you think if there is a RINO in office now its because a Dem would have won the seat otherwise...that there arent enough conservatives in the district to win, just enough to fight the good fight and lose.
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